The Atlas Shrugged risk

I never thought I'd quote Peggy Noonan in my Digest. In my mind, she is a hack political writer, completely out of touch with what's happening in the real world – the world outside the Washington D.C. beltway. But... today... she wrote this in the Wall Street Journal:

The biggest threat to America right now is not government spending, huge deficits, foreign ownership of our debt, world terrorism, two wars, potential epidemics or nuts with nukes.

The biggest long-term threat is that people are becoming and have become disheartened, that this condition is reaching critical mass, and that it afflicts most broadly and deeply those members of the American leadership class who are not in Washington, most especially those in business.

I've been writing about this risk – call it the Atlas Shrugged risk – for months. Most people don't understand how dangerous a narrow tax base is, especially when those few heavily taxed people have the means to exit. Right now, we're running deficits approaching $2 trillion annually. We can get away with this kind of fiscal behavior for a little while because we control the world's reserve currency (at least for now) and the world thinks of America as a law-and-order place, where people pay their taxes.

Unfortunately for our creditors, only about 1% of Americans pay around 40% of all income taxes. There are roughly 100 million U.S. households, which means about 1 million people are currently paying for about 40% of all the income tax receipts.

That doesn't count the big contributions these folks make to the tax base as a whole – their corporate taxes, their sales taxes, the payroll taxes they pay on their employees, etc. What if this 1% – these million people – decided they don't need a big income anymore? Or what if they decided they'd rather live somewhere else... some place where the weather is always perfect... where a great bottle of wine costs $5... where a steak dinner (grass-fed beef, no hormones) costs $10?

I am writing this Digest on my laptop computer on the back patio of Patios de Cafayate, a small luxury hotel in Cafayate, Argentina. A vineyard stretches out to my left, a crystal blue pool in front of me. And in the distance, I can see 15,000-foot mountains.

I'm here for a few reasons: Cafayate sits in the middle of an enormous, high desert valley, about 7,000 feet up in the Andes mountains. It's high enough and close enough to the equator that the weather is essentially the same year round. And it's perfect – highs in the 80s, lows in the 40s each night. No humidity. The climate and the dry, rocky soil is perfect for planting high-quality grapes and making super-premium wines. This is a special place, easily one of my favorite three or four places in the world. It is also a very, very safe place. It's a small community that's literally at the end of the road. Even a nuclear holocaust wouldn't change life around here very much.

As recently as 15 years ago, you wouldn't have found a single American here – it's just too far out. (It took me 23 hours of constant travel to get here yesterday, and that's the fastest I've made the trip.) But technology is allowing lots of folks to come here without losing touch with their businesses, investments, and families. And so the area's advantages – its incredible beauty, fantastic climate, friendly and educated people, etc. – have begun to outweigh the disadvantages of distance.

Several of my friends (Atlas 400 Club members) came here in 2005 looking for a place to build our version of Gault's Gulch. I've written about these efforts over the years. Judging by the feedback, most people thought the idea was crazy. But on Sunday, I'll give a speech at the grand opening of La Estancia de Cafayate – where more than 150 lots have been sold, where a golf course has been built, and where a beautiful clubhouse now stands. I'm sharing the podium with Doug Casey, Rick Rule, and Bill Bonner – the three most successful and influential businessmen I know well…

And 270 other people – nearly all Americans – will join us. I don't know if all 270 folks here are in the 1%... But it's a safe bet most of them are significant taxpayers. These are the wealthy folks Peggy Noonan is afraid will stop paying their taxes. And she's right. That's why many of them are here. They're looking for a place to escape, where the government will leave them alone... where they are safe... and where they are free.

Longtime readers will recall my strident warnings about the solar power industry and the sector's leading stock, First Solar (FSLR). As I began warning people in January 2008, the company has all of the hallmarks of a disaster in the making: a hugely inflated stock price ($200 per share back then), a core product that uses obsolete technology, backing from governments (which tend to be fickle partners), a management team more concerned with cashing out than sticking around, etc…

What will actually happen [to First Solar] is what always happens to very expensive stocks. Things go wrong. The price of oil and energy in general falls as the world slips into recession.

Suddenly, the idea of paying for solar panels seems dumb, given the low cost of energy and budgetary constraints on governments around the world. The global-warming fad fades. People forget. And First Solar ends up like so many other promising tech startups – busted.

On the day I wrote those words, First Solar was trading for more than $225 per share. Yesterday, the stock fell more than 15% to $125 because it missed quarterly revenue targets and its profit margins continued to decline. There are far more efficient technologies in the market today, making First Solar's products uncompetitive. Alas, solar energy is simply a commodity... and making solar panels is turning into a very, very tough business. Don't worry though: Wall Street still says the stock is a "buy." Ha, ha, ha...

You may recall that about one year ago I launched a new advisory called the Put Strategy Report. I created the product because volatility in the stock market was soaring to record levels, a situation that enabled us to sell options on stocks at unbelievable prices. We were being paid huge amounts of money for simply promising to buy stocks at much lower prices – and these were stocks we wanted to own anyway, Starbucks and Tiffany, for example.

At many points over the following six months, we sold options for prices that only made sense if the stocks traded for less than zero – an impossible outcome. We made average gains in excess of 50% in less than six months on nearly two-dozen different positions.

We only lost money twice selling puts. It was, quite literally, the only time in my entire career the stock market was simply giving money away for free. But... I warned my subscribers the situation couldn't last. And once the volatility faded, we wouldn't be able to earn enough money selling puts to compensate us for the risk of holding the option. Today, volatility has almost disappeared and options pricing is horrible (for sellers). What should we do?

Well, if the market isn't paying you enough to sell an option, then it's probably time to start buying them. Last week, we were able to buy a two-year $7.50 put option on Gannett – the publisher of the USAToday – for only $1.70. This gives us the right (but not the obligation) to sell shares of Gannett for $7.50 any time between now and January 2012. Of course, I expect the company to be bankrupt by then. Getting $7.50 for shares actually worth zero is a pretty darn good trade.

And since the shares of Gannett fell from $14 to $10 this week, our option is now trading for $2.65. That's a 55% gain in only a week. Look for more of these long-dated option plays in Put Strategy Report. As long as volatility is either far too high or far too low, it'll be easy for us to make great trades. To sign up, click here.

 

Have you taken advantage of our Jeff Clark deal yet? Since joining S&A, Jeff Clark has had an amazing record of success… 45 of his recommendations could have doubled your money (or more). And he believes he's just found his 46th. For the next few hours, you can take advantage of a special deal we've been running on his research: The lowest price we've ever offered. The deal expires at midnight. Click here for full details.

New highs: Visa (V), Steak 'n Shake (SNS), Martin Midstream (MMLP).

In the mailbag... As I knew would happen, lots of folks think talking about the influence of race in politics makes you a racist. See the accusations below. What cliché would you like to launch at me, dear subscriber? I await your missive: feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Your comments regarding Detroit, it's black people and our bi-racial president reflect those of racists everywhere. By any standard of yours, anything which is not capitalistic is not meritorious. Keep it up and add to the conflagration of interests which encourage partisan government and destructive thinking." – Paid-up subscriber KD

"While I do not dispute any of the specific facts you present regarding the demise of Detroit, your commentary is nonetheless dripping with racist vitriol and let me tell you why: Your implication that the sad state of affairs you describe can be attributed to the blackness of the politicians in charge, rather than to their policies is nothing short of stunning in its ignorance and bigotry... Are you so naïve as to think that the current policies of this president are any different from those that would have been pursued by a white counterpart of the same political stripe?

"As a matter of fact, when it come to the fiscal irresponsibility practiced over the last serveral decades, and which is really what will ultimately destroy this country, there is absolutely no difference between the two parties. Furthermore, do you think that if Black Americans such as Walter E Williams or Thomas Sowell were in charge of policy they would make the same choices of a Barack Obama? I suspect your circle of influence when it comes to Black folk is terribly limited and your view is entirely conditioned by what you know about corrupt Black democrats in this country. You owe your intelligent readers, both Black and White, and apology for your thoughtless comments." – Paid-up subscriber L Verne Carty

Porter comment: I knew when I wrote the piece about Detroit I would be accused of racism by lots of readers. I could have ignored race in my telling of the history, but ignoring race wouldn't have changed any of the facts. And the truth is that race matters in Detroit politics. The truth is, race has played a major and complex role in Democratic policies over the last 40 years – particularly in urban areas. For many ambitious, talented, and intelligent black men and women, the civil rights movement led to a career in politics. This generation of black politicians (who are nearly all Democrats) has an overwhelming belief in the power of the government to improve people's lives. They believe this because the civil rights movement was so successful.

Unfortunately, these men and women don't understand the many negative consequences when the government moves from granting equal rights to manufacturing equal outcomes. These black Democratic politicians have held on to power – despite the disastrous outcomes of their policies – largely because they have continued to promise their mostly black constituents they can deliver more benefits from government. These promises come with a racial undertone because their constituents know very well who will pay for these government programs: rich white people.

On the other hand, there are numerous leading black intellectuals – like Walter Williams and Thomas Sowell – who have stopped to ask the obvious question: Has the expanded role of government helped the black community or hurt it? These men, however, are not Democratic politicians. They do not run for office with the explicit promise of using the government to redistribute wealth. And unfortunately, neither of them is currently the president of the United States.

As anyone who knows me would tell you, I am not a racist. And I am not prejudiced. But I simply won't pretend race has not played a major role in urban politics, even though pointing out these facts is uncomfortable and puts me in jeopardy of being called a bigot.

Finally... 90% of the time I would agree with you that there is no difference between the two major political parties. But I don't think this is true when it comes to race. The Republican Party is not only the party of Lincoln, its policies are, to a much greater extent than the Democrats, blind to race. The Republican Party has consistently opposed affirmative action and other racially motivated government policies. For this reason, lots of folks consider Republicans to be anti-black. I think the opposite is true. I believe the way Democrats pander to racial interests is the real bigotry.

And I think what the government has done to black communities – largely at the insistence of black Democratic politicians – over the last 40 years is a horrendous crime. At some point – and I think it's happening right now in the current mayoral election in Atlanta – the black community is going to turn the tables on the black Democratic leadership. I think we'll see a time when it is the black caucus that's the most libertarian. They've certainly suffered the most under big government.

Discussing these ideas – and having the freedom to write about them without knee-jerk accusations of racism – is critical to a better understanding of politics in the United States. I hope you'll reconsider my points and your evaluation of my character.

"I have been reading your publications since 2003. Some of your ideas pay off – some don't. Be that as it may, I've never been really angry before. Now I'm about to blow a gasket over BSX. When I signed up, the instructions were quite clear – Stansberry Investment Research was a research service whose product was intended to be the starting point for our own inquiry into possible investments. It is not a personal stock picker. I understood that. I have read many investor newsletters over the years and have been singularly impressed with the honesty and integrity of Stansberry & Associates...

"Being upset with you because you didn't make these lazy turds rich on one trade is one thing, but accusing you of criminal activity is quite another. I get a mailbox full of genuine 'pumps' every week, and they bear no resemblance whatsoever to the Stansberry products. For the life of me, I don't know why you put up with it – I suppose that's why I'm not a newsletter writer... As for me, I appreciate the work that every researcher at Stansberry does for me. The time savings are worth many times the subscription fee." – Paid-up subscriber Ross S. Reynolds

Porter comment: I think the vitriol related to our recent losses in Boston Scientific (BSX) stems from the fact that I endorsed the company so strongly and labeled it a totally safe, "no risk" trade. Doing so was a serious mistake. It has too much debt, and it is a high-technology company exposed to lots of innovation and change. I was completely wrong in my assessment of the risk. This mistake cost a lot of people who trusted me and supported my business a lot of money.

It has also cost me a lot of money in terms of refunds and reputation. I hope all of my subscribers know how seriously I take this matter and how seriously I take the trust you all have in my work and my judgment. It is, of course, impossible to never make a mistake in this business. All I can do is learn from the mistakes I make. I've given this issue a lot of "ink" in The Digest because I hope all of you will learn something from this situation too, whether you invested in BSX or not.

"Your analysts are prohibited from owning any of the newsletter's recommendations? Why? I don't want to own a stock that you or your analysts don't have a bit of their own skin in the game by owning the stock themselves. I want to own what you and your analysts have enough confidence in to risk their own money on. Ok. So you buy the stock, then recommend the stock, and it goes up because your subscriber jump in. That means you make money just because you recommended the stock. Oh well. You make more money than me. Or lose less than me. That is preferable to me than not having enough conviction in your recommendations to risk your own money. I want to own what you or your analysts own." – Paid-up subscriber Tom Martin

Porter comment: Believe me, Tom, I agree with you. I would much prefer to own all of the stocks I recommend, if for no other reason than to assure people I believe 100% in what I've written. (I would also prefer to actually own my recommendations because they have been enormously profitable...)

So why do we have a policy that prohibits it? The reasons are legal and regulatory. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is working hard in court (against yours truly) to extend its authority over what's merely being written about stocks. As you surely know, we don't engage in brokerage, banking, or investment management. We don't offer any personalized advice. And so, we don't wish to be regulated by the SEC.

Also, you should understand the SEC exists to protect the interests of Wall Street's big banks and brokers – folks whose work we regularly criticize. Wall Street wants to put a muzzle on me and other letter writers like me, who constantly expose their conflicts of interest and the sometimes fraudulent nature of their businesses. We also believe strongly in the freedom of speech. I think you ought to be allowed to write and publish your opinions and your research on stocks, without fearing the government is going to come after you in court. (Believe me, it is expensive as all hell to fight the government in court.)

So... the SEC has been arguing in court that securities laws passed in the 1930s after the Great Depression give it the right to regulate newsletters because they claim our writing is done "in connection with the purchase or sale of securities." This so-called "in connection with" language is the key limiting factor of the SEC's legislative mandate. We are afraid if we buy and sell the stocks we write about, the SEC will be able to argue successfully that our writing is a part of our personal investing and therefore is "in connection with" the purchase and sale of securities.

Therefore, until our lawsuit is finally decided (we are on appeal currently), we cannot allow any of our analysts to trade in the stocks they recommend. You should not think, however, that we don't own any of the stocks we cover. We do. I own Dan Ferris' recommendations, for example. And I know that many of my employees own my recommendations in their accounts. The prohibition only extends to the stocks we personally cover in our newsletters. (And even so, employees must wait for a period of time after the recommendation hits the street before they can buy. That ensures subscribers can act on our advice first.)

Regards,

Porter Stansberry
Cafayate, Argentina
October 30, 2009
The Atlas Shrugged risk... Noonan makes The Digest... Welcome to Cafayate... First Solar heads toward "bust"... What to do when volatility is low... "You're a racist"... Why we aren't allowed to own the stocks we write about...

Back to Top