The Jetsons Comes to Life
A chip in your hand – to open a car... The Jetsons comes to life... An emerging technology worth noting... The European energy crisis worsens... The dollar pops higher again...
Dad always said we'd be 'chipped' one day...
Turns out he was right. It's possible right now.
This morning, on my drive into the office, I (Corey McLaughlin) heard this true story being discussed on local radio...
A guy spent $400 to get his Tesla car keys implanted in his right hand.
Brandon Dalaly, the guy who had this done, shared video of the procedure on social media. We won't share it here because we don't want to make people wince, but just know that he says he can now just swipe his hand near his Tesla to unlock it.
Not only that, but in his left hand, he had another small chip already implanted, which includes the keys to his house, his contact card, and, wait for it... his coronavirus vaccination card. As the New York Post reported...
The bizarre stunt is made possible by a chip called a Vivokey Apex, which uses NFC technology – the same "tap-to-pay" feature that enables Apple Pay on iPhones.
Dalaly said that he's part of a beta group of about 100 people who are testing the chips before they are released to the public.
"The company that put this together literally has its own app store where you can wirelessly install apps into your body with these chips," he said. "And one of the apps just happened to be a Tesla key card. So that was the first app I installed on it because I have a Tesla."
Teslas aren't the only electric cars you can unlock with your body... The new Genesis GV60 lets drivers configure facial recognition and fingerprint scanning to unlock and drive the vehicle without a key – no surgery required.
Privacy, of course, is a real issue here. I hate trying to remember all my passwords or asking a certain housemate where our car keys are now. But you won't catch me volunteering to implant personal data in my body or using myself as a human key.
We welcome your thoughts on this story...
It brought to mind our colleague Matt McCall's latest issue of his monthly The McCall Report newsletter. He opened by recalling The Jetsons... the 1960s children's television show.
Matt's point was that 60 years ago, a decent amount of stuff dreamed up by the show's science-fiction writers as "futuristic" is very much real today. In particular, he was talking specifically about telehealth...
There's one episode when George's son, Elroy, doesn't want to go to school. So he – like many of us when we were children – pretended to be sick.
To make sure it wasn't the "Venus Virus" or the "Martian Mumps," his mother called the physician. The doctor popped up on the screen in the same exact way you would connect with your doctor today for a telehealth appointment.
It's hard to imagine a cartoon predicting the future, but that's exactly what The Jetsons did with this telehealth device. It also predicted the world using video calls like FaceTime and Zoom as well as flying cars (which are right around the corner).
Matt then went on to recommend buying shares of a leading telehealth platform today. He shared that this company has facilitated 100 million virtual appointments since its launch in 2020 and grew its margins to 34% in its last fiscal year.
Existing subscribers to The McCall Report and Stansberry Alliance members can check out this issue here. Matt details the bullish case for this company and updates folks on more than a dozen stocks in his model portfolio.
An emerging technology worth noting...
One day, decades from now, chips in our bodies might become a socially accepted norm – as my father actually predicted to me many years ago in a discussion about privacy concerns in emerging technologies.
Thankfully, we're in the early days... and this is a volunteer role so far. While we doubt folks will be lining up to implant chips in their hands like Brandon Dalaly anytime soon, this story does also highlight a real growth trend.
The near-field communication ("NFC") technology that enables this guy to open his car by swiping his chipped hand is growing rapidly.
A recent study from ABI Research found that contactless payment card usage has increased by 30% over the past two years. NFC technology is a standard feature on the approximately 3 billion smartphones in use today.
Part of that reason is that there are already widely accepted standards for the technology. The NFC Forum – which represents hundreds of companies, including Apple, Google, Qualcomm, and Sony – has defined specifications for the future of the technology.
That means it's more likely to be used across borders or industries, thus expanding the total addressable market. That's how you end up with one technology that allows folks to tap-to-pay at a store and open their car, and who knows what else, with the same type of hand implant.
Switching gears completely, let's check what's happening in Europe...
The bloody war in Ukraine continues with reports of even more escalation on the horizon. U.S. officials just issued a fresh warning for Americans to leave Ukraine – like they did before the Russian military's initial invasion in February.
That's not a good sign. Nor is the United Nations chief's plea yesterday for a halt to "nuclear saber-rattling" amid continued shelling and fighting in the area of Europe's largest nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine, raising fears of a potential nuclear catastrophe.
Among other things, the associated energy and inflation crisis in Europe continues to worsen, stemming from the conflict and the continent's significant reliance on Russian energy.
In the July 18 Digest, we wrote that Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom declared "force majeure" after limiting natural gas shipments to Europe and said "routine maintenance" was the reason for the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline being closed.
The story is ongoing...
Yesterday, Gazprom again announced it would suspend gas flows via the pipeline for three days starting on August 31 for "unscheduled maintenance." The news renewed concerns that Russia will ultimately cut off gas supply to Europe completely as leverage in the war.
Take a look at the reaction to that move and another unexpected development, via Stansberry NewsWire editor C. Scott Garliss' morning headlines update today... (As a reminder, you can get all of our NewsWire updates for free by signing up for the service here.)
Europe faces fresh disruption to energy supplies due to damage to a pipeline system bringing oil from Kazakhstan through Russia that was reported by the pipeline operator on Monday, adding to concerns over a plunge in gas supplies – Reuters.
European gas and power prices surged to a record as panic over Russian supplies gripped markets and politicians warned citizens to brace for a tough winter ahead – Bloomberg.
European natural gas futures have more than doubled since June to a new all-time high... as Russian natural gas supplies to Europe are down around 75% year over year, which is significant.
Here's a chart of the Dutch Title Transfer Facility ("TTF") natural gas prices, the European benchmark... (A lot of natural gas runs through the Netherlands, sort of like oil through Cushing, Oklahoma – the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate crude oil.)
The lack of natural gas supplies from Russia is a big problem for all of Europe but in particular for Germany – the largest contributor to eurozone economic output at 30%. As Scott reported in the NewsWire in July...
At the end of last year, 32% of the German gas supply came from Russia, 22% from domestic storage, 20% from Norway, 12% from the Netherlands, 11% from the Czech Republic, and 4% from other sources...
However, while Germany may receive 11% of gas exports from a Czech pipeline, that's deceiving. According to the International Trade Administration, the Czech Republic imports all of its oil and natural gas. And almost all of that gas is supplied by Russia. So, that means the Russian supply is at least 43% of Germany's total, not including what it places in Germany's storage.
In related news, the benchmark German electricity price jumped more than 25% on Monday, to about 14 times the seasonal average over the past five years.
I still don't think many Americans fully realize the dire state of the energy crisis in Europe just yet. European governments are scrambling to fill storage facilities with natural gas to have enough fuel to keep homes warm...
Because winter is coming... The potential knock-on effects of an energy shortage and a devasting recession could be long-lasting.
The counterintuitive but telling market reaction...
Europeans freezing all winter long and the consequences of the situation are frightening enough. What's more, a prolonged energy crisis should lead to more inflation in Europe...
And that should mean more aggressive interest-rate hikes from the European Central Bank ("ECB") to fight inflation, and presumably stronger hikes than what the Federal Reserve is planning...
Last month, the ECB raised its benchmark by 50 basis points, which got it to zero.
That dynamic, in turn, would mean that the euro should be rallying against the dollar.
But lately, the dollar – compared to the euro and the world's other largest currencies – has strengthened...
The U.S. Dollar Index ("DXY") – which measures the greenback versus the euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Swedish krone, and Swiss franc – is up nearly 4% since August 11 and hit a new 20-year high yesterday... a number not seen since the dot-com bubble.
As the Fed has raised interest rates by 2.5% since March, the dollar has rallied and is up 17% over the past year and 13% since the start of the year... (As we always say, this doesn't mean we don't have concerns about the dollar's long-term health, but the price action is what it is right now given the circumstances of the world.)
A stronger dollar is generally a headwind for U.S. stocks... because it means the cost of doing business is more expensive, and vice versa. The S&P 500 Index and the dollar are inversely correlated... Should the dollar weaken, stocks should rally.
In the meantime, though, a stronger dollar means the rest of the world's currencies are getting weaker versus the greenback. That's good for the U.S. – but bad for everyone else.
And the events in Europe have taken the euro to new 20-year lows. All in all, this market reaction is suggesting that folks are expecting interest rates in the U.S. to keep going higher in the months ahead... at close to or even greater than the pace in Europe.
But Mr. Market may also be signaling that the effects of a deep recession in Europe – stemming from the energy crisis, and interest-rate hikes to fight inflation – might outweigh the influence the ECB (or Fed) can have on lowering prices.
Don't forget, the ECB has already said the eurozone should be in a recession by the fourth quarter of this year. In other words, the story now is not whether Europe has a recession – which will no doubt touch the entire world – but what the recession will look like.
This Won't End Well
The Inflation Reduction Act is a "misnomer bill" that only accelerates the current trajectory of the U.S., "and it does not end well," says David Morgan, author of The Silver Manifesto and founder of TheMorganReport.com. He explains all the details to our editor-at-large Daniela Cambone...
Click here to watch this video right now. And to catch all of the videos and podcasts from the Stansberry Research team, be sure to visit our Stansberry Investor platform anytime.
New 52-week highs (as of 8/22/22): SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill Fund (BIL).
In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's Digest about a few mortgage companies going broke... and more thoughts on the Federal Reserve. Do you have a comment, observation, or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Rocket [Mortgage] is sending out letters with 3% down on mortgage loans. This is further confirmation of the [mortgage business] stress. Lending Club & Lending Tree are among stocks getting beat down and I'm sure earnings are down.
"This recession will claim many victims. Perhaps Stansberry's team can publish a research subscription report on all the companies investors could take short positions on because it certainly looks like the list could become quite extensive.
"It seems that in these markets with a single minded Fed the only play that will work well a large percentage of the time will be to sell short or the 'Great Put' play. The key is advising investors on how to do this with a safety hedge so they don't get burnt with a bankruptcy and unsellable put positions which can't be closed.
"I can't believe analysts can't see... the world is in a recession...
"The S&P chart clearly shows a bear trend and Treasury yield curve has been screaming a recession. The IMF cut global GDP by half for 2022-23. What else are the debaters waiting for?
"The only people who are not in a recession are the investors making money off of taking short positions or our politicians with inside knowledge of the legislation and access to daily economic reports.
"The Fed created this economic catastrophe and now they are adding more to it. They are failing at controlling inflation. Reducing demand means literally pricing people out of their homes and jobs. It's not a humane social policy. Remember a Tale of Two Cities? We are going to see social unrest worldwide on an unprecedented scale. This should be the top Department of Defense priority who gets shy of a trillion in funding annually.
"Something at the Fed has got to change because it's effecting the world just as much as the 2008 crisis. We need to have growth to afford to solve the bioengineering for climate change. New fuel source energy and new food production methods are needed now.
"Just my humble opinion!" – Paid-up subscriber Rodger G.
"It seems like most people have a reverence for the Federal Reserve and listen to their every word and plan their financial life around them. Ever hear the phrase 'Don't fight the Fed?'
"The Federal Reserve is neither federal nor do they have reserves. They are a private institution that has rich powerful shareholders that care only about themselves and getting rich and controlling people. They print money out of nothing, sell it to the government at face value and us taxpayers are accountable to pay the money our out of control government foolishly spend, with interest!
"Where does the Federal Reserve get their money? There is none. Is it backed by gold? No, or very little. Our whole monetary system is 100% debt based. Bill Bonner, Jim Rickards, Ron and Rand Paul will tell you that, as so many of the honest politicians from the early 1900s and 1800s have told us (Andrew Jackson ran on 'bust the banks' platform).
"Our financial system has to fail. It is a house of cards. I would recommend to everybody that they have a stash of gold and silver close at home for the day it does crash." – Paid-up subscriber Mark M.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
August 23, 2022