The Next Pandemic Is Here... Here's What You Should Know
The next 'pandemic' is here... 'Three to four million could be infected'... What you should know about Zika... A vaccine could already be here... The latest from P.J. O'Rourke...
As if we didn't have enough to worry about...
The U.S. stock market appears to be starting a bear market... Credit markets are as stressed as they've been since the last financial crisis... Central banks are as clueless as ever... And it looks like American voters will have the pleasure of "choosing" between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton this fall (be sure to see the latest essay from contributing editor P.J. O'Rourke below).
Now, you can add another big concern to the list...
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ("CDC") reports Zika – a frightening virus spread by mosquitoes – has officially reached "pandemic" levels in South America. As a result, it has already moved its emergency operations center to its highest activation status – Level 1 – for only the fourth time in history.
The World Health Organization is also concerned... It says Zika is "spreading explosively," and could infect as many as 4 million people in the Americas this year alone.
This is because it's spread by a particular species of tropical mosquito – Aedes aegypti. Unlike most mosquitoes, which bite mostly at night, mosquitoes of this species are known as "aggressive" daytime biters. This means they're most active when most people are, too.
While mosquitoes are the primary route of transmission to date, the CDC recently confirmed that the virus can also be sexually transmitted.
According to the CDC, about one in five people who become infected with the virus becomes ill. The illness typically lasts from several days to a week, and the most common symptoms of Zika are fever, rash, joint pain, conjunctivitis (eye inflammation), muscle pain, and headache.
But there is growing evidence linking Zika to a serious birth defect in babies of mothers who have been infected while pregnant. Microcephaly, as it's known, is a condition in which the baby's head (and often brain) is far smaller than normal, often leading to developmental problems.
A new study, published Monday in prestigious British medical journal The Lancet, suggests Zika could also be linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome ("GBS") in adults. GBS is a rare condition that causes the body's immune system to attack peripheral nerves by mistake, leading to muscle weakness, breathing problems, and, in severe cases, paralysis or death.
The study analyzed patient blood samples from the last outbreak of Zika – in French Polynesia during 2013 and 2014 – and found evidence the virus could cause GBS. As lead author, Arnaud Fontanet of the Institut Pasteur in France, explained...
This is the first study to look at a large number of patients who developed Guillain-Barré syndrome following Zika virus infection and provide evidence that Zika virus can cause GBS. Most of the patients with GBS reported they had experienced symptoms of Zika virus infection on average six days before any neurological symptoms, and all carried Zika virus antibodies.
If the current outbreak behaves like the last, the study's authors predict as many as one in 4,000 people infected with Zika could ultimately develop GBS.
While the outbreak is most severe in South American countries like Brazil, where more than 1.5 million cases have been reported, the virus has already spread throughout most of Central America and Mexico.
It's also spreading quickly in U.S. territories like the U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and Puerto Rico. In fact, a report in yesterday's Washington Post said there are now 117 confirmed cases in Puerto Rico. That's four times more than in January, and officials predict at least one in five Puerto Ricans will become infected. The territory has already declared a state of emergency due to the outbreak.
To date, the CDC reports there are 107 confirmed cases of Zika in the U.S. But importantly, none of these were "locally acquired, vector-borne" cases.
That means none of these individuals was infected by a mosquito in the U.S. Instead, most were infected while traveling to another country. And several others were infected through sexual contact with someone else who had been infected while traveling.
In other words, if you haven't traveled to these countries, and haven't had contact with anyone who has, your risk of infection today is extremely small.
But that could soon change...
Officials say it's unlikely we'll see true pandemic levels of Zika here in the U.S. for a number of reasons. For example, more folks live and work in sealed, air-conditioned homes and offices in the U.S. than in poorer South and Central American countries. Access to health education and services is also higher.
But that doesn't mean Zika won't be a problem here, too...
According to official data, Aedes aegypti is already present in many southern states, including Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona, and parts of Tennessee, New Mexico, and California. It's likely only a matter of time before Zika arrives in one or more of these states.
In addition, some researchers believe this mosquito species' range may be even greater than believed. These mosquitoes are able to breed in very small pools of water – even as small as an overturned bottle cap – making them hard to track. And a recent study in the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene showed these warm-climate mosquitoes are surviving and breeding in small pockets as far north as Washington, D.C. As the study's authors told news network CNN today...
If [we] had just told people that these mosquitoes had overwintered in Washington, D.C., they wouldn't believe [us]. Those mosquitoes shouldn't have been there.
It's really weird that [they're] here, so who knows where else [they are]?
Today, there is no treatment for Zika... The only way to prevent infection is to avoid getting bitten by an infected mosquito, and avoid those who have been. That's obviously much easier said than done.
Fortunately, we may be close to a solution. And our colleague Dave Lashmet – editor of the excellent Stansberry Venture advisory – has been all over this development from the beginning.
Last summer – before Zika was making headline news – Dave identified one tiny drugmaker that was developing an incredible new vaccine technology.
In simple terms, it was working on something like an "antibiotic" for the virus world... a technology that could potentially be used against a number of different viruses, rather than just one. As Dave explained in the August issue of Stansberry Venture...
This is a world-changing possibility for medicine that has never before existed... a potential antidote to viral infections.
Most viral infections are untreatable: When a virus attacks your body, your immune system is on its own to fight off the bug. If it succeeds, you recover. Otherwise, it can fight the virus to a stalemate – leaving you with a chronic condition – or it fails, and the virus eventually kills you. Regardless, no pill will help make the virus go away.
We've made great progress lately with hepatitis C. And acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is now controllable if you can tolerate seven different classes of drugs. But broadly speaking, we have never had an equivalent to antibiotics or antifungals when it comes to viruses. Until now...
This tiny company has been quietly working for months on a preventative vaccine for Zika. And it now has one.
This vaccine has already been shown to work in mice, and is in larger animal testing now.
Because there is currently no treatment for Zika, animal testing and a small human safety trial should be enough to gain U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval. Dave says "provisional" approval could be granted in less than a year.
But Stansberry Venture subscribers likely won't have to wait even that long to profit...
If the vaccine works as expected, Dave believes a big vaccine maker like Merck (MRK), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), or Pfizer (PFE) is virtually guaranteed to buy this tiny company at a huge premium. Today's investors could quickly double their money or more.
That may sound unbelievable, but if you know anything about Dave's track record, it won't surprise you.
Last year alone, Dave recommended four separate companies just days or weeks before they soared 100% or more.
And that was out of just 11 total recommendations in 2015. That's right... 36% of Dave's Stansberry Venture recommendations doubled last year.
And Dave believes this tiny vaccine maker could be the next.
Incredibly, despite the recent positive news on the company's Zika vaccine, shares are still trading below Dave's maximum buy price. But that may not be the case much longer.
You can get immediate access to all of Dave's research with a 100% risk-free trial subscription to Stansberry Venture. Click here to learn more.
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Baltimore, Maryland
March 2, 2016
Trump, Seriously!
By P.J. O'Rourke
Donald Trump is looking presidential. Or at least, he's looking, to coin a word, "nominational"...
Yesterday, on Super Tuesday, Republicans voted in 10 state primaries. Ted Cruz won his own state (Texas) and one that's practically an annex to it (Oklahoma). He also won in the state that elected Sarah Palin. Marco Rubio won Minnesota, which has no Republicans.
Donald Trump won the rest. And he placed a close second in Alaska, Oklahoma, and Texas.
The short odds are that Trump will be the Republican candidate. Everyone should be taking him seriously, starting with Trump himself.
If he runs and loses, it's serious. We'll be facing short odds again – President Hillary ("Short Everything!") Clinton.
If he runs and wins, it's serious, too. Trump has made no serious attempt to explain what he'll really do if he's elected, let alone how he'll really do it.
So far, Donald Trump is still just a way for people to say how they feel about the political establishment in two words that they can use in front of their kids.
But now Trump needs an actual campaign platform. Here are my suggestions...
Declare the U.S. Government Bankrupt
U.S.G. has an annual revenue of $3.3 trillion. Its outlay is $3.8 trillion. Our national "business" is losing $500 billion a year.
Any experienced chief executive like Donald Trump would raffle this turkey in a New York minute.
And Trump knows how – Chapter 11 filings for Trump Taj Mahal in 1991, Trump Plaza Hotel in 1992, Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts in 2004, and Trump Entertainment Resorts in 2009.
It's not failure, it's restructuring. And everybody wins. U.S.G. has underlying assets with gigantic income-producing potential.
For example, the federal government owns 640 million acres of land. Doing a little simple math, if we rent each acre for just $65 a month, we'll break even.
Only $65 a month for a whole acre! Surely a real estate deal-making maven like Donald Trump can convince people that that's a great deal.
Mr. Trump, Tear Down That Wall
We don't need a wall on our border – we need gates with turnstiles and ticket-takers. The right way to limit immigration (and make people in foreign countries pay for it) is to charge admission to the United States.
Disneyland costs $100 a day. At least 12 million illegal immigrants are living in America. By my calculation, we're leaving $438 billion a year on the table. And America has many more attractions than Disneyland. (The S&P 500 rollercoaster is much scarier than Space Mountain.) Plus, think what we could bring in from the food, toy, and souvenir concessions.
But what if people don't leave after we let them in? We'll ask Disney. Disney doesn't seem to have trouble clearing the park when it's closing time.
Don't Make America the World's Policeman... Make America the World's Private Security Guard
And bill the world for it. According to this website, an armed security guard typically costs $18-$25 per hour.
But the U.S. military has the best training and weapons in the world. Members of the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines are certainly worth double the going rate, $50 an hour at minimum.
We have 150,000 U.S. troops stationed overseas – $50 x 150,000 x 24 x 366 (this is a leap year) = $65.9 billion.
Foreign countries can pay up or go ask ISIS for help with their national defense.
Expand the Brand
Trump may bill himself as a real estate mogul, but his real genius is in branding. To date, he has only exercised his genius on one brand: his own. But what a job he has done. There is, however, a brand that's even bigger than "Trump." It's "America."
All around the world, people are imitating America – wearing blue jeans, listening to rap music and rock and roll, tweeting, posting on Facebook, playing violent video games, binge-viewing rubbish, eating junk food, and becoming obese. We should be getting royalties for this.
I admit I'm fuzzy on the details. But Trump is the businessman, not me. BMI and ASCAP have made the royalty model work for American popular music. Since it was copyrighted in 1935, the song "Happy Birthday to You" has earned an estimated $50 million in worldwide royalties.
Imagine each American getting even a few pennies in licensing fees from 7.4 billion people whenever they wear an ugly t-shirt, say "OK," or lose the TV remote.
Speaking of TV, Bring Reality Television to Washington
Trump is good at real estate deal-making and better at branding, but he's best of all at playing himself on reality TV.
Washington D.C. is a perfect setting. The only competition is C-SPAN, which is like watching the canary molt.
All Trump has to do is what he's already doing – let the cameras roll.
The genre offers endless possibilities...
The Amazing Race (we're in the midst of it)
American Idol (starring guess who?)
Snark Tank
Survivor (Ted Cruz, so far)
The Bachelor (Bill, when Hillary finally gets done with running for president)
Keeping Up With the Congressionals
Project Runaway Government Expenditures
8 Supreme Court Justices and Counting
Bush Dynasty (canceled)
The Biggest Loser (see above)
Eliminate Poverty While Saving Taxpayers $252.6 Billion a Year
(I'm serious about this platform plank.)
According to the U.S. House of Representatives Budget Committee, "There are at least 92 federal programs designed to help lower-income Americans." Together, these poverty programs cost $799 billion a year.
About 46.7 million Americans are living in poverty. The poverty threshold for an individual is $11,700 a year. If the federal government wrote 46.7 million checks for $11,700, the total would be $546.4 billion – $252.6 billion less than what's being spent now. And a family of four would get $46,800 a year.
Giving money to poor people should eliminate poverty. But the government is spending 46% more money to eliminate poverty than it would take to eliminate poverty by giving poor people money.
Bonus: Trump will get to shout his reality TV catchphrase at all the employees of 92 federal programs.
Regards,
P.J. O'Rourke
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