Stansberry & Associates Top 10 Open Recommendations
(Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all S&A portfolios)
As of 06/20/2013
| Stock | Symbol | Buy Date | Total Return | Pub | Editor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPERT | Rite Aid 8.5% | 399.00 | True Income | Williams | |
| EXPERT | Prestige Brands | 347.20 | Extreme Value | Ferris | |
| EXPERT | Constellation Brands | 137.20 | Extreme Value | Ferris | |
| EXPERT | Automatic Data Processing | 116.10 | Extreme Value | Ferris | |
| EXPERT | BLADEX | 107.90 | Extreme Value | Ferris | |
| EXPERT | Lucent 7.75% | 101.60 | True Income | Williams | |
| EXPERT | Philip Morris Intl | 99.60 | Extreme Value | Ferris | |
| EXPERT | Berkshire Hathaway | 97.80 | Extreme Value | Ferris | |
| EXPERT | AB InBev | 88.00 | Extreme Value | Ferris | |
| EXPERT | Altria Group | 83.20 | Extreme Value | Ferris |
| Top 10 Totals | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2 | True Income | Williams |
| 8 | Extreme Value | Ferris |
Ignoring beta... Investing in porn... Score one for Ackman... Buying diamonds... Final Jeopardy... Still bashing Soros...
Goldsmith comment: Porter's working on PSIA today, so I'm handling The Digest.
Most investors are obsessed with "alpha" – their portfolio's volatility relative to the market – and "beta" – its correlation to the market movement. That's why investors pay 2% of holdings and 20% of profits to hedge funds. The fund managers supposedly make money despite what is happening in the market... But some of the best investors ignore beta completely. Seth Klarman is one of them. His hedge fund, Baupost Group, has a net compound return of 20% a year over 25 years. One dollar invested at inception would be worth $94 today. And he produces these returns while often holding the majority of the fund in cash. From Klarman's October 2007 speech at MIT...
As value investors, our business is to buy bargains that financial market theory says do not exist. Modern financial theory tells you to calculate the beta of a stock to determine its riskiness. In my entire professional career, now 25 years long, I have never calculated a beta. This theory urges you to move your portfolio of holdings closer to the efficient frontier. I have never done so, nor would I know how. My firm's approach is to seek situations where there is urgent, panicked, or mindless selling... So rather than buy from smart, informed sellers, we want to buy from urgent, distressed, or emotional sellers. This concept applies to just about any asset class: debt, real estate, private equity, as well as public equities.
Blessed with the privacy of their own computers, most people seem to want to watch porn... And now a $9 billion hedge fund, AdultVest, is cashing in on the popularity. AdultVest matches accredited investors with various adult businesses looking to sell, raise capital, or go public. Currently, AdultVest claims 4,044 members in its investment community.
When we need a snapshot of what's going on in the smut industry, we turn to shares of New Frontier Media (NOOF), one of three publicly traded porn stocks. And things aren't pretty right now. New Frontier announced flat earnings yesterday and indefinitely suspended its dividend. Shares fell 33% in two days. Despite the poor performance, very respectable institutions – including Renaissance Technologies, Royce & Associates, and Steel Partners – own the stock.
Perhaps the next niche hedge fund could invest in high-end jewelry, as it seems absurdly expensive diamonds avoided the credit crunch... Jeweler to the stars, Harry Winston, announced first-quarter net income of $21.3 million, up from $3.25 million a year earlier.
Dan Ferris' Lehman short is getting some serious media coverage... The New York Times ran a story headlined "Lehman Fights Insurgent Investor," positioning the bank as a helpless victim of David Einhorn, who is short Lehman via his hedge fund Greenlight Capital. And another Wall Street Journal article reported yesterday the bank is feverishly buying back its own shares... Could it be a vote of confidence by Lehman's management or a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding? Lehman shares are down 63% from their February 2007 peak. Extreme Value readers are up more than 20% on their position. Click here to learn more about Extreme Value.
The next chapter unfolded in the bond-insurer bet... Monoline insurer Ambac (ABK) was removed from the S&P index and replaced by cigarette company Lorillard. Ambac shares dropped 7% today. Score one for Ackman.
Here's the final Jeopardy question from last night's episode... "In 1951, this company whose origins date back to 1876 became the first U.S. company to have 1 million shareholders." All three contestants answered incorrectly. Anyone know the answer (without googling it)?
New highs: U.S. Natural Gas (UNG), Potlatch (PCH), Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR), Carbo Ceramics (CRR).
Despite our repeated attempts to separate ourselves from Soros' political views, the e-mails still come. Care to join the fray? Feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Stop quoting Soros. He threatens our American way of life. I wish he would just go back to whatever craphole country he came from! He makes money here and wants to destroy us, the pompus A--hole." – Paid-up subscriber Joe Cardella
Goldsmith comment: Here we go again...
"Thanks for your recommendation of shorting Lehman Bros. in the Extreme Value portfolio. As today's news reveals, Dan's 'nose for trouble' at Lehman was right on the money. I waited a bit after the newsletter came out and established my position when Lehman was selling above $46.00, so I'm very happy with my current return of around 30%, and the fact that it has hedged my other long positions. Porter has often said that he doesn't much like to make short recommendations, since he knows most of his subscribers won't follow them. But I believe a healthy portfolio ought to have some shorts for insurance if nothing else. There's always something in the market that is wildly overvalued or has hidden problems, such as Lehman or Porter's rec of Cheniere. I hope you'll both continue to offer short recommendations from time to time, when you can find good ones." – Paid-up subscriber Charles Hall
Regards,
Sean Goldsmith
Baltimore, Maryland
June 4, 2008
Stansberry & Associates Top 10 Open Recommendations
Stock
Sym
Buy Date
Total Return
Pub
Editor
Seabridge
SA
7/6/2005
745.1%
Sjug Conf.
Sjuggerud
Humboldt Wedag
KHD
8/8/2003
436.8%
Extreme Val
Ferris
EnCana
ECA
5/14/2004
362.6%
Extreme Val
Ferris
Icahn Enterprises
IEP
6/10/2004
363.1%
Extreme Val
Ferris
Exelon
EXC
10/1/2002
339.1%
PSIA
Stansberry
Valhi
VHI
3/7/2005
205.5%
PSIA
Stansberry
POSCO
PKX
4/8/2005
194.2%
Extreme Val
Ferris
Petrobras
PBR
2/13/2007
196.1%
Oil Report
Badiali
Crucell
CRXL
3/10/2004
178.7%
Phase 1
Fannon
Alexander & Baldwin
ALEX
10/11/2002
166.3%
Extreme Val
Ferris
Top 10 Totals
5
Extreme Value Ferris
2
PSIA Stansberry
1
Sjug. Conf. Sjuggerud
1
Phase 1 Fannon
1
Oil Report Badiali
Stansberry & Associates Hall of Fame
Stock
Sym
Holding Period
Gain
Pub
Editor
JDS Uniphase
JDSU
1 year, 266 days
592%
PSIA Stansberry
Medis Tech
MDTL
4 years, 110 days
333%
Diligence Ferris
ID Biomedical
IDBE
5 years, 38 days
331%
Diligence Lashmet
Texas Instr.
TXN
270 days
301%
PSIA Stansberry
Cree Inc.
CREE
206 days
271%
PSIA Stansberry
Celgene
CELG
2 years, 113 days
233%
PSIA Stansberry
Nuance Comm.
NUAN
326 days
229%
Diligence Lashmet
Airspan Networks
AIRN
3 years, 241 days
227%
Diligence Stansberry
ID Biomedical
IDBE
357 days
215%
PSIA Stansberry
Elan
ELN
331 days
207%
PSIA Stansberry