This Vaccine Maker Is Giving Us a 'Double Nightmare'
Our second 'Alliance Town Hall' event... The latest on COVID-19... Insider selling during the 'race for a cure'... This vaccine maker is giving us a 'double nightmare'... Operation Warp Speed is a 'government boondoggle'...
We begin today with a special note for our Alliance Partners...
We want to make sure you don't miss one of your latest member benefits – our second "Alliance Town Hall" event. It debuted on Thursday... And like the first edition back in May, we consider it must-watch content for our most loyal subscribers.
For this quarter's edition, Director of Research Austin Root and Digital Anchor Jessica Stone spoke with four of our editors who have critical insights into what's happening in the markets today...
During the Town Hall, you'll hear from Stansberry NewsWire editor C. Scott Garliss, Extreme Value editor and weekly Digest contributor Dan Ferris, Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet, and Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade.
The four editors took a step back from the day-to-day movements of the markets, as well as their weekly updates and monthly issues, to share broader insights. Plus, they also answered a number of timely questions about the market, such as...
- What effect will the November presidential election have on stocks?
- What is Stansberry Research's outlook for gold and silver going forward?
- And on the COVID-19 front, which company would you invest in with a vaccine success as your investment thesis?
Again, if you're an Alliance Partner, you can watch the Town Hall in full for no additional charge right here. (And related, if you're interested in becoming an Alliance Partner today, please give our customer service team a call at 800-262-5092 to get started.)
In fairness to our current Alliance Partners, we don't want to give away too many details from the latest discussion here in today's Digest. However, we do want to share two pieces of related big-picture advice from Austin...
- Hold "dry powder" that's not in cash
- Buy world-class companies
On the first point, if you have money sitting on the sidelines right now, given the recent and likely continued weakening value of the U.S. dollar, consider other places to store your cash. (As we've said many times this year, gold is an excellent option.)
And the second point we want to share should be etched in the minds of longtime subscribers... Buy the type of companies that our founder Porter Stansberry considers "forever stocks." By doing both of these things today, Austin said...
You'll be better protected and have faith in what you own, and these companies should do better.
Of course, our editors have been tracking the latest news about COVID-19, too...
Today, that means a lot about the "race for a cure." At least 180 different vaccines are under development, and a handful are grabbing headlines... But there's no guarantee one will work – or work soon.
Yet from the latest news, it sounds like the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") will approve giving out vaccines to certain people before Phase III trials are finished.
With the amount of taxpayer money being thrown at vaccine development over the past few months, it doesn't surprise us... The FDA – the federal agency that can approve an emergency use authorization ("EUA") like this – is planning to do just that with a number of COVID-19 vaccine candidates.
As Retirement Millionaire editor Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig said just last week in his latest COVID-19 briefing video with senior analyst Matt Weinschenk...
This is one of the biggest land-grabs, in my opinion, that I've ever seen.
In the NewsWire, Scott reported today that FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn recently said his agency would bypass normal procedures if "it felt the rewards of approving an inoculation outweighed the risks."
Hahn also said it's up to the drug developer to seek the EUA approval. In the spirit of Dan's Friday Digest, here's the translation... Apply now, so we can approve it before we go sip piña coladas over Labor Day weekend.
Despite what the headlines sound like, though, this "skip Phase III" plan likely wouldn't serve as the green light for any vaccine being distributed to the general population. As Scott wrote...
An EUA would be granted for individuals like front-line workers (nurses, doctors, police, etc.) who are at constant risk of infection. Normal approval procedures would still have to be followed for widespread use.
Still, this 'fast track' effort shows you just how big the stakes are...
... And how much of a land-grab this really is, to borrow Doc's phrase.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said the American economy probably won't return to normal until a vaccine is widely available. Many corporate officials have said the same... United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby said it earlier today.
The government has fronted billions of dollars for vaccine development that usually takes at least five years... And it's aiming to have one available before the end of this year (or before the November election, which looks less and less likely each day).
The notable "leaders" include a pair of cutting-edge messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccine approaches from biotech company Moderna (MRNA) and a joint effort from pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE) and German biotech company BioNTech (BNTX).
An mRNA vaccine has never been approved for use with infectious disease. But from the sounds of the news, you might think getting this formulation in the arms of millions of Americans with limited side effects is a foregone conclusion.
It's not.
As Venture Technology editor and noted biotech expert Dave Lashmet, who has frequently provided commentary on COVID-19 in the Digest this year, put it during our Alliance Town Hall event the other day...
The vaccines that are dangerous are pushing themselves to be first... And they're chasing each other to be done in November or October.
Dave handicapped the "race for a cure" while joining Doc and Matt's latest COVID-19 briefing video. It's also a must-watch presentation. This one is free for everyone, and it's chock-full of detail and real information that we haven't seen or heard anywhere else in easily understandable form.
In part, Dave detailed more about the specific challenge with the development of mRNA vaccines, notably working with how the SARS-CoV-2 virus (which causes the COVID-19 disease) attacks a cell and how researchers will use that "spike" to develop a vaccine.
According to Doc, "Dave knows how to judge medical breakthroughs and drugs in development better than anyone we know." And with that said, Dave noted...
The open question is, what are the side effects if you do that?
Dave said this is exactly where the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are today.
The mRNA vaccine trials have produced a lot of side effects – like fever, chills, etc. – in patients so far (and these are generally otherwise healthy people in the trials), particularly in trial patients who initially took stronger amounts of the two doses needed. In general, so much remains unknown about how mRNA vaccines will perform across a large human population...
We want to see what happens with people in the real world with efficacy before we choose one over the other. If we pick a winner early, or even multiple winners, we don't really know they won. We're just giving them money.
'Insider' selling is also telling the same story...
The "insider" feel of this entire episode is unsettling... With stakes come greed.
We're specifically talking about Moderna's value right now. First, some background...
The head of the government's "Operation Warp Speed," which we wrote about most recently in July, is a man named Moncef Slaoui... And importantly, he was a member of Moderna's board of directors until May 15. (Slaoui said he would divest from the company four days later.)
Now, consider that the company started working on its vaccine in January. And Moderna shares, even after a pullback in July, are up about 240% year to date – a surge that really started in earnest after the company released vague positive Phase I trial data.
Not long after, several Moderna executives sold thousands of shares for millions of dollars at different points this summer. It's gratuitous profit-taking in its most obvious form. But now, let's take it a step further...
Why specifically were they selling?
Because "they" know what most people don't, according to Dave. In the video with Doc and Matt, Dave said Moderna is already tremendously overvalued given the price the company has said it wants to sell a COVID-19 vaccine for...
[Moderna seems] to want to price a vaccine at around $35... Given that they're in a competitive environment, given that there's [GlaxoSmithKline] and everybody else who also wants a piece, Moderna's not going to have pricing control over the entire world.
[If Moderna sold the vaccine to] everyone in the U.S., they would never ever, ever make their market cap. They've massively outgrown what they could possibly return to investors. So that's why they sold. That's what the CFO and CMO know that retail investors don't.
In August, the federal government announced that Operation Warp Speed was buying 100 million doses of Moderna's anticipated vaccine. That's a third of the operation's goal of 300 million doses. In all, so far, Moderna has received $2.5 billion from the government.
It sounds a lot like classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior if you ask us...
Except the company's executives were making money from the "rumor" while its former board member was the one making the "news" about the government buying millions of doses.
It's a 'double nightmare'...
Those were Dave's words about Moderna's trial process, speaking about both medical and investing angles...
And looking more broadly, it's a "government boondoggle." Those are the words from Doc in the same conversation with Dave. (We told you the video is a must-watch.)
By the time a vaccine with appropriate data is widely available to the public, Doc said that billions of dollars will have been spent too early... for something that might come out too late. As Doc explained...
The good news is, I think we're going to discover... that a lot more people than we knew were using their T-cells and their native immunity, and the antibody production is going to show up in many, many more people than we realize.
And we're already going to have, I'll call it "herd immunity" – or mostly cleared. This will be a government boondoggle.
And at best, we'll have efficacy data end of next year. So October or November 2021 is when I will put my money down [for a vaccine widely available for the public]. But I want to be wrong...
That's still more than a year away, but already a lot of the "rumor" has been priced into the stocks involved in the hunt for a cure.
If you're looking to make investments in this "race" today, you might be better off looking past the vaccine developers.
We'll end with a reminder about a different stock that Dave is recommending today...
In a way, this stock ties directly in with COVID-19. But in another way, it deals with so much more... and perhaps an even bigger market in the long run.
We're talking about the stock of a little-known pharmaceutical company that Dave said has developed a potential "cure" for the obesity epidemic.
In our Masters Series essays over the weekend, we featured a two-part Q&A with Dave in which he explained why the obesity epidemic costs our country so much... and in ways we don't even imagine.
For instance, when COVID-19 popped up, people with preexisting conditions were right away considered more at risk for developing debilitating or fatal disease... And obesity is linked to 70 serious conditions.
In fact, Dave mentioned this fact in his video chat with Doc and Matt...
If a company could come up with a treatment for the root cause of obesity, it would be a game changer. Well, Dave said he has now found that company... And he wants subscribers to have the chance to get in on the opportunity before this ticker goes mainstream.
Pending approval, this drug has a multibillion-dollar market – and the company that makes it will take investors on quite a ride... As the full story plays out, Dave believes its investors can make 20 times their money.
Click here to learn more right now. (And for Venture Technology subscribers... be sure to click here for this latest research right now.)
COVID-19 and Obesity: The Untold Story
Obesity, like age, can put people at greater risk for serious health issues from COVID-19. Stansberry Research analyst Amanda Cuocci shares insight into the risk factor that's often getting overlooked.
Click here to watch this video right now. For more free video content, subscribe to our Stansberry Research YouTube channel... and follow us on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter.
New 52-week highs (as of 8/28/20): Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Fund (KBA), Microsoft (MSFT), ProShares Ultra Technology Fund (ROM), Southern Copper (SCCO), S&P Global (SPGI), Silvercorp Metals (SVM), Visa (V), Victoria Gold (VGCX.TO/VITFF), Belo Sun Mining (VNNHF), Vanguard S&P 500 Fund (VOO), and Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund (VTIP).
In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' latest Friday Digest, which "translated" the latest speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Do you have a comment or question? As always, send your notes to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"This was one for the ages! Dan Ferris is a national treasure. Keep it up Dan. As nutty as things are right now we can all use more humor." – Paid-up subscriber Brook M.
"Dan, hilarious article today! Thanks for the translation. I would have never been able to figure out what Powell was saying until you translated it 🙂
"Your 'sane mantra' never gets old with me. It's good for me to hear it more than once for reassurance and confidence in where I'm investing my money. With that said – my mantra is your mantra. I'm in good priced stocks recommended from the guys/gals in Innovations [Report] and Investment Advisory. Although I'm not confident in what percentage of my portfolio needs to be in Gold – I'm in it. Currently at 5%.
"I find it challenging not chasing the market straight up (I usually only buy on dips) but I try to stay disciplined and keep roughly 10% in cash. Cryptocurrency is new for me. Everybody at Stansberry (including Porter's video) explained it in such detail and I'm grateful for that. I'm confident I did the right thing. Roughly 6-7 weeks ago I bought Bitcoin around $9,500. 2% as you suggested. I truly believe the risk of NOT owning Bitcoin far exceeds the risk of owning a small portion of it." – Paid-up subscriber Marty B.
"Thank you, Dan Ferris, for the big smile that came my way when reading this week's column. As a holder of mostly gold and silver, precious metals miners, bitcoin, and cash for the last 18 months I have been doing well and sleeping well too. 'But this time it's different...' Yeah, right... The more things change, the more they stay the same." – Paid-up subscriber George F.
"My translation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech. 'I'm going to fit this square peg (Fed Policy) into this round hole (American Economy) if it's the last thing I do.'" – Flex Alliance member K.S.
"Oh my goodness Dan, my husband and I have followed you and Stansberry for many years. You COMPLETELY nailed it on the head with the Friday Digest. A reckoning is coming. Prepare to eternity! Keep fighting the good fight!" – Paid-up subscriber Heather N.
"You had me rolling on the floor. Lengthy and heavy reading is not for me. Usually, I skim the Digest but rarely read it closely. This time was different. And boy, was it worth it. I'm not the most financially literate person around. Imagine my delight when, finally, I find validation for what felt like smarminess hiding just under the skin of these meetings. So, a hearty Thank You.
"Your take on these effete groupies cloaking their sleight-of-hand antics in real-time was delightful. My favorite part is the 'natural rate of unemployment' or u-star. Wow, that sounds so important and interesting and singularly amazing. It's like 'Gee, I just can't see how anyone can be as smart and I am and still can't walk on water.' So thanks again for the belly laugh. Too bad about the topic, though." – Paid-up subscriber Lori L.
"Dan the Man! Thanks for the great Powell interpretations. I haven't laughed that much about depressing news in a while!" – Stansberry Alliance member Dan L.
"Dan, Longtime reader here. Just wanted to say that this Friday's Digest 'Man of System' was the best I've ever seen. Disturbing, thought provoking, and hilarious. Keep it up!" – Paid-up subscriber Bob W.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
August 31, 2020