Ukraine and Russia on the brink of war...
We asked S&A Global Contrarian editor Kim Iskyan for his thoughts on the situation. Kim responded that the Ukraine situation will have significant implications for businesses and investment in the entire region. "But one issue that I don't think anyone has focused on much is what it does for the prospects for portfolio investors in Russia," Kim said. "In short... it puts them in a bad place, for a long time."
|
Kim predicts the Russian economy is in for a dark time now. The country's central bank today had to boost interest rates by 1.5% (to 7%) to try to stop the Russia's currency, the ruble, from devaluing... This will cut off growth.
Of course, markets often overreact and overcorrect. At some point, Russian shares will become too cheap and a great contrarian buying opportunity will present itself. But Kim says the road ahead for Russian stocks looks rockier than for other emerging markets...
True Wealth editor Steve Sjuggerud is among those contrarians who see opportunity in the Russian market's super-cheap multiples. It's one of several emerging markets where he believes investors will make big gains when things get "less bad."
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett released his latest letter to shareholders of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway over the weekend. As always, it was filled with invaluable investment lessons. We'll get to those in a moment.
He will "absolutely" buy more. And he'll continue to buy even if the situation in Ukraine worsens...
Berkshire holding MidAmerican Energy bought utility NV Energy last year. And Buffett said it "will not be MidAmerican's last major acquisition."
Buffett spent a lot of time telling investors to not worry about price fluctuations and to instead focus on the long-term prospects of a business. He shared examples of a farm and New York City commercial real estate property he purchased and simply held. Despite holding the properties through crises, both are worth far more today than when he bought... And they continue to throw off loads of cash.
|
Buffett's calls to hold through turmoil seem like a warning... Perhaps Buffett sees turmoil on the horizon. He did warn of further financial problems for governments:
|
I'd like to end today's Digest by giving kudos to the Stansberry Society team for a fantastic inaugural event.
Assange joined us via Skype from the Ecuadorian embassy in London. Ecuador has given him political asylum... But he can't leave the embassy. After the introduction, Assange appeared on a giant screen in front of the audience.
After a long day of wonderful presentations, we had dinner at one of my favorite restaurants on the beach, Prime Italian. We had the entire restaurant for our function. In typical Porter fashion, dinner was over the top: Kobe beef meatballs, crab cakes, bone-in filets... and a glass or two of red wine.
New 52-week highs (as of 2/28/14): Advent Claymore Convertible Securities Fund (AVK), Brazil Resources (BRI.V), Blackstone Group (BX), Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI), Cameco (CCJ), CF Industries (CF), C&J Energy Services (CJES), Carrizo Oil and Gas (CRZO), CVS Caremark (CVS), Diebold (DBD), Denison Mines (DNN), SPDR International Health Care Fund (IRY), Eli Lilly (LLY), Penn Virginia (PVA), ProShares Ultra Technology Fund (ROM), Superior Energy Services (SPN), ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Cambria Shareholder Yield Fund (SYLD), Union Pacific (UNP), and United Technologies (UTX).
One subscriber responds to Friday's Digest Premium... send your comments to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"I read with great interest your comments [in Friday's Digest Premium] about renminbi possibly becoming the global reserve currency... [In] an article from today's [February 28] China Daily... Yves Merch of the [European Central Bank] says the exact same thing. It is now only a matter of time and based on the speech Mr. Merch gave, Porter's timing seems to be closer than anyone realizes." – Paid-up subscriber Gerald Schober
Iran's official name is the Islamic Republic of Iran... and like I (Kim) mentioned last Monday, the lack of Western influences is one of the first things you notice in Tehran.
Iran takes its alcohol laws seriously. Drinking isn't the sort of thing that is indulged with a wink and a nod... Ask hotel reception and you'll get a cold stare.
Of course, you can find real alcohol if you want. Markets are resourceful, regardless of culture or country. Someone told me that a lot of it is smuggled in from Iraq. Go to the right party, and you'll find it.
If, or when, the West lifts its economic sanctions on Iran, some of cultural and social conservatism may slowly change. The conservatives and liberals in Iran have been fighting it out behind the scenes for years. (Imagine the struggle in the U.S. between the Tea Party and the Democrats... then multiply it by a thousand.)
Stansberry & Associates Top 10 Open Recommendations
(Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all S&A portfolios)
As of 02/28/2014
| Stock | Symbol | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Editor |
| Prestige Brands | PBH | 05/13/09 | 357.3% | Extreme Value | Ferris |
| Constellation Brands | STZ | 06/02/11 | 281.5% | Extreme Value | Ferris |
| Enterprise | EPD | 10/15/08 | 265.4% | The 12% Letter | Dyson |
| Ultra Health Care | RXL | 03/17/11 | 252.2% | True Wealth | Sjuggerud |
| Ultra Nasdaq Biotech | BIB | 12/05/12 | 242.7% | True Wealth Sys | Sjuggerud |
| Fluidigm | FLDM | 08/04/11 | 220.0% | Phase 1 | Curzio |
| Ultra Health Care | RXL | 01/04/12 | 207.7% | True Wealth Sys | Sjuggerud |
| Fission Uranium | FCU-V | 04/30/13 | 193.8% | Phase 1 | Curzio |
| Hershey | HSY | 12/06/07 | 182.9% | SIA | Stansberry |
| McDonald's | MCD | 11/28/06 | 170.3% | The 12% Letter | Dyson |
| Top 10 Totals |
| 2 | Extreme Value | Ferris |
| 2 | The 12% Letter | Dyson |
| 1 | True Wealth | Sjuggerud |
| 2 | True Wealth Sys | Sjuggerud |
| 2 | Phase 1 | Curzio |
| 1 | SIA | Stansberry |
Stansberry & Associates Hall of Fame
(Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all S&A portfolios)
| Investment | Sym | Holding Period | Gain | Publication | Editor |
| Seabridge Gold | SA | 4 years, 73 days | 995% | Sjug Conf. | Sjuggerud |
| Rite Aid 8.5% bond | 4 years, 356 days | 773% | True Income | Williams | |
| ATAC Resources | ATC | 313 days | 597% | Phase 1 | Badiali |
| JDS Uniphase | JDSU | 1 year, 266 days | 592% | SIA | Stansberry |
| Silver Wheaton | SLW | 1 year, 185 days | 345% | Resource Rpt | Badiali |
| Jinshan Gold Mines | JIN | 290 days | 339% | Resource Rpt | Badiali |
| Medis Tech | MDTL | 4 years, 110 days | 333% | Diligence | Ferris |
| ID Biomedical | IDBE | 5 years, 38 days | 331% | Diligence | Lashmet |
| Northern Dynasty | NAK | 1 year, 343 days | 322% | Resource Rpt | Badiali |
| Texas Instr. | TXN | 270 days | 301% | SIA | Stansberry |