We Hope the End Is Near
Finally, some good news... Vaccine rollouts are ramping up... One of the biggest impacts on the economy we see today... The American consumer is close to returning... We hope the end is near... Oil hits another new high...
We haven't shared COVID-19 graphs in a while...
We've been writing about the pandemic for more than a year... The first time we reported a death toll – in the January 22, 2020 Digest – it was 17 people, all in China.
We've talked about the virus a lot since then. But we've rarely found that mentioning data on COVID-19 case numbers, hospitalizations, or deaths made anyone happy.
Maybe that will be different today...
Our friend and Empire Financial Research founder Whitney Tilson updated his readers with these beautiful-looking curves today, showing drastic decreases in COVID-19 numbers across the board...
Vaccinations continue to ramp up, the new Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) single-dose vaccine will likely be approved by the end of the month – bringing massive new supply online – and as you can see from the charts below (source), cases, hospitalizations, and average daily deaths are plunging – they're now down 74%, 58%, and 43%, respectively, from their peaks only five weeks ago:
We've seen a lot of bubbles emerge recently, and many of them will have grave economic consequences when they pop. But here is one bubble – the late-2020 COVID-19 wave – that we're happy to see pop as magnificently as possible... and it looks like we're finally on the way to seeing it.
The end is near – we hope.
It feels strange to be positive...
Since March, I (Corey McLaughlin) have grown used to confusion, anxiety, uncertainty, disagreement, and anger. To be Mr. Positive amid that mess could make me feel like an outcast, even in my own home.
We've got no shortage of problems, of course... One glance at the television and a few seconds on Twitter will tell anyone that. As quickly as it shifted millions of Americans to remote working, the pandemic – and everything that came with it – seemed to accelerate divisions in this country.
Plus, more than 500,000 Americans are reported to have died from COVID-19... and that number will surely grow.
But there's an important reason right now for lots of folks to be optimistic... I'm talking about the number of COVID-19 vaccines hitting Americans' arms every day.
As our Stansberry NewsWire editor C. Scott Garliss wrote this morning...
More than 63 million Americans have already received inoculations through yesterday, according to Bloomberg's COVID-19 vaccine tracker. The average daily total is 1.33 million doses administered per day over the last week. That's tremendous progress compared with where we were at the end of 2020, with only 3 million vaccinations.
And we know firsthand that while not everyone wants a vaccine, demand is high... Here in Florida, where I've been for several weeks, daily appointments fill up within seconds in the early-morning hours.
Navigating a patchwork of state, county, and pharmacy websites can be confounding and frustrating. And we don't know how long these COVID-19 shots will be effective against emerging and future strains of the virus. But things are moving in the right direction.
A few weeks ago, various governors from around the country told the White House that they didn't need the federal government to drop in with so-called "super vaccine" centers, but just needed more vaccine doses in their states to hand out.
And as we write, it appears that's what's happening. More from Scott with the latest on the vaccine rollouts...
Pfizer (PFE)/BioNTech (BNTX) and Moderna (MRNA) have both promised to provide 300 million doses each. They're hoping to deliver the entire amount by the end of July. In addition, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is expected to fulfill a pledge of supplying 100 million doses by the end of June.
Both Pfizer/BioNTech's and Moderna's drugs require two shots for potential immunity. Johnson & Johnson's only requires one. Therefore, we could potentially have enough available vaccines to inoculate 400 million people by the end of July.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the total population is 328.2 million. That means there's a possibility of "herd immunity" against COVID-19 heading into the fall. Herd immunity requires around 80% of people to be protected against coronavirus. If 80% of the U.S. population is successfully vaccinated, those who aren't are essentially protected, effectively containing further spread.
Scott reported that based on comments from drugmakers and U.S. government officials that he has seen, vaccine distribution should only continue to speed up in the next few months...
In April and May, we could see more than 25 million doses delivered each week. That's an increase of at least 100% versus the current 12.5 million average. It would mean 3.21 million vaccinations per day. And June would see a jump to at least 30 million delivered per week. Again, based on the current usage rate of about 90% of weekly supply, that would mean daily inoculations of at least 3.86 million starting in June.
A lot of people will be protected against COVID-19. The economic boost from individuals being able to resume more normal daily activities will be gigantic.
As we said in the February 8 Digest – when Tesla (TSLA) bought a bunch of bitcoin and its price skyrocketed – the correlation between "thing A" and "thing B" is sometimes so simple yet cannot be stated enough...
So here we go... Today, COVID-19 vaccines hitting Americans' arms is one of the biggest impacts on the economy we see today...
The American consumer accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy...
Last spring, when the world was crumbling around us, we made this same point... but it's often forgotten. Collectively, Americans' spending – measured by each and every decision that each and every person makes – drives a majority of our economy.
As we wrote in the April 22, 2020 Digest...
There's a reason 22 million more Americans are unemployed today than a month ago... and that many more folks are looking for jobs now than during the financial crisis.
The pandemic has touched literally every part of our economy. But at the same time, this should also serve as a fresh reminder that the everyday behaviors of "We the People" actually matter...
Be it binging on Netflix (NFLX), riding Peloton (PTON) bikes in our homes, or eating out at fast-food restaurants like McDonald's (MCD)... and not flying on airlines like Southwest Airlines (LUV) or United or doing anything else that requires burning oil.
On the day we wrote that, oil prices had fallen to negative $37 per barrel. Traders holding futures literally paid people to take over their positions because they didn't want a barrel of oil to show up at their front door.
Back then, with the country in lockdown, people were barely using oil, and storage facilities, tankers, and pipelines were overflowing with supply. But things have changed, thanks again to the American consumer...
Oil and other commodities have been on the rise lately...
Even before the deep freeze and power-grid mismanagement in Texas spiked prices last week, oil had already reached new highs. Today, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude traded for around $61, up more than 50% from four months ago.
And as DailyWealth Trader editors Ben Morris and Drew McConnell wrote in their February 16 issue, oil isn't the only commodity on the rise lately...
Crude oil, cotton, lumber, soybeans, corn, copper, and platinum... They all trade at, or just shy of, one-year or multiyear highs.
This kind of coordinated rise in commodities prices has been rare in recent years. In fact, any kind of rise in commodities prices has been rare...
As a group, commodities have been trending lower for the past decade. And not many individual sectors have broken from the downward trend. But as Ben and Drew wrote, that may be starting to change...
No trend lasts forever. And when you're talking about ingredients that are critical to a functioning economy, you can be sure that the downtrend will eventually turn into an uptrend... The bust will give way to a boom.
As regular DailyWealth Trader (DWT) readers know, commodities are the building blocks of civilization. We burn some of them for fuel (like oil, natural gas, and coal). We grow some for food (like corn, rice, sugar, and wheat). And we mine some for industry (like copper, zinc, and nickel).
Precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum fall under this umbrella, too.
So, several fundamentals of the "real economy" – the one that requires in-person interaction – are trending higher. And these indicators could see continued tailwinds in the months ahead as more people get out in the wild again, thanks to COVID-19 shots...
That is good news for a lot of people – maybe everyone – in the short term. As pent-up demand is unleashed on the world, we'll once again be reminded that "We the People" have the power more than we think when it comes to the economy and markets.
But there are two sides, or more, to every story...
There is a very good argument to be made that Federal Reserve-induced inflation is causing commodities to jump in price lately, and that even higher levels of inflation could be ahead as the economy recovers.
Tomorrow, we plan to address this discussion and why it matters when making decisions about your investments today. But for now, let's just be happy we're inching closer to the end of our once-in-a-century pandemic experience.
We hope.
Get Vocal About Silver
Physical demand is driving the price of silver now more than ever, says Silver Stock Analyst editor Garrett Goggin. He explains to our Daniela Cambone why silver coin dealers have been cleaned out lately, and how individual investors are using silver to take on the big banks...
Click here to watch this video right now. For more free video content, subscribe to our Stansberry Research YouTube channel... and don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Twitter.
For more expert insight from Garrett, be sure to check out his Silver Stock Analyst newsletter. Click here to learn how you can get started and take advantage of the silver "short squeeze" today.
New 52-week highs (as of 2/19/21): Analog Devices (ADI), Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), American Express (AXP), Siren Nasdaq NexGen Economy Fund (BLCN), CBRE Group (CBRE), Corteva (CVTA), Eagle Materials (EXP), Harvest Health & Recreation (HRVSF), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), SPDR S&P Regional Banking Fund (KRE), MakeMyTrip (MMYT), Norilsk Nickel (NILSY), OptimizeRX (OPRX), Oshkosh (OSK), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers Fund (PEY), Southern Copper (SCCO), SciPlay (SCPL), Sea Limited (SE), Spotify Technology (SPOT), Square (SQ), Seagate Technology (STX), Trip.com (TCOM), United States Commodity Index Fund (USCI), Valmont Industries (VMI), and Zebra Technologies (ZBRA).
In today's mailbag, feedback on our annual Report Card, which our publisher Brett Aitken wrapped up in Friday's Digest... and some boots-on-the-ground reporting from one of our subscribers... Do you have a comment or question? As always, send us an e-mail at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Dear Brett: Thanks so much for an in-depth analysis of all the Stansberry newsletters. That was a fantastic analysis and must have taken many hours to write. I am a long time subscriber to all of Stansberry newsletters, going back to the early 2000s, and I'm glad I am. I have made great returns, and I have a huge portfolio of holdings that number 85 stock holdings and about 30 option trades. I know that's probably too many, but when I read the newsletters, I can't resist buying positions when they look so enticing. Thank you for a job well done in describing the successful trades of many of Stansberry analysts' newsletters." – Stansberry Alliance member Al V.
"Stansberry Research has served me very, very well over the years – subscribing was one of the best decisions I've made in my years of investing!
"I've been following your research and advice on cryptos for quite some time now, and have always been impressed with your focus and insight.
"Fortunately, I invested three years ago – buying bitcoin and others when they were still selling for peanuts. Needless to say – I'm extremely happy with the return I'm seeing now, and in fact bought even more bitcoin back in August on your recommendation.
"Yesterday I ran across this 'sign of the times' – which really says it all. Thought I'd share with you and your readers...
"There can be [no] doubt that crypto is going mainstream when you can even buy it at your local grocery store!" – Paid-up subscriber Marti G.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Naples, Florida
February 22, 2021