U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen over half a percentage point in the past seven weeks, the biggest fall since 1994. Mortgages rates on 30-year fixed loans are back to more than 5%... This sets the stage for a showdown between the government's lenders (bond buyers) and the Federal Reserve, which wants interest rates to remain low. The Street (BlackRock, American Century, Federated, and Pioneer Investment) thinks the Fed will buy Treasury bonds again (like it did last month) in order to force rates lower. Your editor thinks, no matter what the Fed does, long-term interest rates are going much higher and the bond market is going to get crushed.
What will more and more creditworthy borrowers do when they see the Fed engineering a huge new inflation? Borrow as much money as they can, at fixed rates. Take Microsoft, for example. Bill Gates' company has never borrowed a penny before – ever. It has no need for debt financing whatsoever – it's sitting on more than $20 billion in cash reserves. Nevertheless, Microsoft will borrow billions in five, 10, and 30-year debt. It will use the money from this sale to help fund a $40 billion share repurchase program – nearly 25% of the company's outstanding shares. Follow Bill Gates' lead: Buy high-quality equity. Sell government debt.
Another member of the ultra-wealthy, Bond King Bill Gross, is also betting on inflation. Gross reduced U.S. government-related debt holdings (which include Treasuries, agency debt, and government-backed bank debt) in his PIMCO Total Return Fund for the first time since January. His holdings are now 26% of the fund down from 28% in March - the most he's owned since April 2007. If his May 8 interview with CNBC is any clue, Gross may shift some assets into senior bank debt now that the government's stress tests are done... "The banking system is enduring," Gross said. "These types of spreads on the senior debt level are historic and quite attractive."
Or if you prefer more tangible investments, consider buying artwork to combat inflation. According to Sotheby's, a recent auction of lower-end (but still expensive by normal standards) artwork brought in $23 million. One of the bidders at the sale, a private London art dealer, Ivor Braka, speculated, "Perhaps people are anticipating global inflation, and want to put their money into something tangible... At the moment there is more money being produced than paintings."
New highs: none.
In the mailbag... A subscriber making more than $150,000 per year is complaining about taxes. Can you believe it? That rich jerk... Send your complaints here: feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"I called my stockbroker today and asked, 'What are you buying?' He said, "Canned food and ammunition." – Paid-up subscriber Norman
Porter comment: Sounds like a good time to buy stocks to me... and to sell ammunition and guns.
"You have been talking about the coming inflation. So, is it wise to take a large loan (for a home) now when the interest rates are low. Interest rates are bound to go up with inflation, right?" – Paid-up subscriber NS
Porter comment: Most folks don't realize nearly all of the money you make owning a home comes from inflation. Assuming you can get a mortgage rate that's less than the inflation rate, you'll likely do very well shorting the dollar via your home mortgage.
"Over the years as I have become more successful (as measured by my annual taxable income) it does seem to me that the higher my income gets, the less of the extra money I actually see. That is the marginalized taxes kicking in plus all the limits on deductions due to making over a certain amount. In addition to all the inflationary woes you have been writing about, I wonder if people realize the less visible impact it will have on their taxes. Salaries are bound to go up, which will raise the average income overall, and push a good majority of earners into higher tax brackets (since I doubt the Feds will change tax income ranges to take into account the percentage of inflation). When this happens, a large number will probably hit that magical number ($100K AGI, I believe – for married filed jointly) where deductions start becoming limited and then are phased out completely ($150K AGI, I believe - for married filed jointly). The biggest hit is for families with children. The nice, fat $1K tax credit you get per child when your AGI is under $100K is reduced more greatly the closer you get to $150K, at which point the tax credit goes away completely... Having been in the $100K to $150K range for a few years, and having broken the $150K mark in the last year or so, I must say taxes have become a greater burden on me than they have been in the past. I understand equality and all that but WTF should someone else benefit from my hard work?! I had to bust my ass to get to where I am... The equality of gain should be directly proportional to the equality of effort. A flat tax would seem to better facilitate that than the current system of tax. X% always remains X% of any income amount and scales a hell of a lot more equally across the board than the current system of tax." – Paid-up subscriber Jerry Young
Porter comment: There's no room in Amerika for anyone as greedy as you are, Jerry. You don't need $150,000 to live well here – not when the average income is $40,000. Yes, you've been lucky to do so well in your life... and that's why you should be happy to give back to your community. After all, wasn't it Amerika that provided you with all of the opportunity you've taken advantage of? It's the country that's really responsible for your success, Jerry. Hard work wouldn't have gotten you very far in Russia.
I'm tired of hearing all of you "rich" people moaning about taxes... OBAMA!'s new top 39.5% rate – even if it applied to your entire $150,000 wage – would still only be $58,500 in taxes. That leaves you with $91,500 – that's A LOT OF MONEY! Of course, there's state income tax in most places. Even after you've paid those (5%), you've got $86,925 left – more than twice the average wage. Of course, you also have to pay 12% of your gross compensation for Medicare and Social Security. Yes, it's a lot of money ($18,000) – but surely you wouldn't want to see anyone go without medical care in a society that's as rich as ours. Besides, that leaves you with $68,925 – which is more than enough to live on...
With a gross income over six figures, you've probably got a $1 million house. States usually charge about 2% of the current value for real estate taxes. (Someone has to pay for the roads and the schools you know.) Now you've got $48,925 after tax. Assuming
your wife doesn't work – 'cause you're so rich – that leaves each of you with about $25,000 per year. Assuming you both have medical insurance, you're probably spending about $800 per month in premiums... so you've still got more than $15,000 each – just to spend on yourselves. That's $296 per week... Before sales taxes, gas taxes, your grocery bill, your mortgage bill, your car payments, your electricity bill, phone, water, cable... and investment newsletter subscriptions. I'm sure you have plenty left over for charity and retirement savings. You're doing great Jerry. You lucky bastard. You've got no right to complain about taxes...
Regards,
Porter Stansberry
Baltimore, Maryland
May 11, 2009