Here's Why We're Still Optimistic on the Market; Amazon Board Approves 20-for-1 Stock Split, $10 Billion Share Repurchase; Inside Truth Social: Hands on with Trump's social media platform; Endurance: Shackleton's lost ship is found in Antarctic

1) In his always-insightful Empire Elite Trader, my colleague Enrique Abeyta yesterday laid out why we're still optimistic on the market. Here's an excerpt, shared with his permission:

Ultimately, what we're watching for is the risk of extended loss of capital – meaning a "bear" market that could go down as much as 50% to 70% from the highs and last for years.

We still don't believe that is likely. And while we have many macroeconomic indicators that we typically use to make these decisions which are still supporting our case, this particular environment also has some "unique" positives.

So this week in Empire Elite Trader, let's lay these out to give three "green shoots" to investors looking to navigate the current market environment...

1. Economic growth momentum

To put it simply, the U.S. economy currently has great momentum. This is the reason why inflation is a problem.

There is some "noise" in the numbers because of the pandemic recovery... but fourth-quarter 2021 GDP growth in the U.S. was 5.6% in real dollars. This is taking out the impact of inflation.

It would literally be unprecedented for us to quickly go from this level of economic growth into a recession.

That doesn't mean that we can't get there eventually... but we likely have some time to make that decision.

Think of it as a ship sailing swiftly in the ocean. It may get hit by a blast of wind... but with enough momentum, it's highly unlikely to be set off course. (The big gust of wind will slow it down, though... and that increases the chance that the next big gust could knock it off course.)

2. Cash on the sidelines

While you will see some datasets talking about how much debt there is, they don't talk about how much cash is on the other side...

As a result of the pandemic, consumers who didn't lose their jobs had a lot less "stuff" to spend their money on... and they also got many of the cash payments that were paid out by the federal government. Even consumers who did lose their jobs often ended up with some more cash as a result of these factors.

While some of this may have been spent in the economic recovery, much of it has not... and some analysts we have read see this as almost $2.4 trillion. That's more than enough to offset the impact of inflation.

Looking at the combination of consumers and corporations, Bank of America (BAC) estimates that they may be sitting on $19 trillion of cash – up 35% from 2019.

Goldman Sachs (GS) recently noted that authorizations for share buybacks are forecast to be $1 trillion in 2022. To put that in perspective, the total market cap of the U.S. stock market is roughly $48 trillion... so this is about 2% of the total value. That is a real number.

This is one of the reasons why consumer and business spending have been so resilient despite the world feeling like it was going to end.

Again, this can change... but it's unlikely to change that quickly. That is a lot of money to spend.

3. Jobs momentum

Similar to economic growth, we also have great momentum in the jobs market.

Remember, if people are working, they spend money and maintain and grow the economy. The more people that begin working that were not, the higher likelihood of economic growth. There is a very high correlation between job losses and recessions.

We had 10.9 million job openings in the U.S. as of December, and we just reported a gangbuster employment number.

Like all of these variables, this is backward-looking... but exactly where are the job losses going to come from?

Oil and gas will be hiring. Retail can't find enough people. Logistics? Manufacturing? Real estate? Demand is massive right now.

At some point, the venture-capital bubble will burst and we'll see a ton of high-paying IT jobs coming out. Although that occupation only represents around 3% of the U.S. workforce, it will have a disproportionate impact. However, that day is not today... Go out and try to hire an engineer!

As we have said multiple times, all of these variables could change. However, it would be highly unusual or improbable that they change quickly... or at least quickly enough that our near-term view on the chances of a recession is wrong.

There may come a point where they change enough that our views will change accordingly, but that time is not now...

Enrique then went on to share his latest recommendation – a trade that focuses entirely on Europe.

To read about it, click here to sign up for Empire Elite Trader. It's our only weekly research service, in which Enrique looks to hit short-term singles and doubles. With experience spanning more than two decades, he has an incredible track record.

Best of all, trying it out is risk-free. If for any reason you're not satisfied with Empire Elite Trader, simply call our customer service team within 30 days and we'll refund your money... What do you have to lose by giving it a try?

2) Amazon (AMZN) remains a core recommendation in our two flagship newsletters, Empire Stock Investor and Empire Investment Report, so this was good to see: Amazon Board Approves 20-for-1 Stock Split, $10 Billion Share Repurchase.

That said, I'm surprised the stock is up so much, given that stock splits are meaningless and $10 billion is nothing in the context of Amazon's $1.5 trillion market cap. But I'll take it!

3) Here's more evidence that my least favorite stock, Digital World Acquisition (DWAC) is going to collapse once it acquires Truth Social (even if the SEC lets the merger go through, which I think is unlikely): Inside Truth Social: Hands on with Trump's social media platform. Excerpt:

Over the past few days, there have been a few articles about Trump "whining" and being "furious" over the "failure" of the Truth Social launch. As those reports mention and I can personally now attest, the former President of the United States has only posted a single "truth" since its launch more than two weeks ago. The social media app debuted at the top of the App Store charts, but has since fallen precipitously in the rankings.

But, more revealing than Trump posting just a single time is just how many people follow Trump there. At the time this article was published, a little over 200,000 people were following the former president on Truth Social. Trump is ostensibly the reason why Truth Social exists – a place where people can hear from its founder after he was banned everywhere else! If you're planning to actually use Truth Social, one would assume he'd be the first person you'd follow. He's also the first user who comes up as a suggestion when you open the search tab, before inputting any search query.

Other journalists who've gained access to Truth Social in recent days, such as Ruby Cramer of Politico, have noted just how dead Truth Social appears to be.

"There isn't much happening on the site," Cramer wrote.

And that's true. It is a brand new platform after all. The problem is where the engagement on the site – what little there is, at least – is happening. It's the same issue that has plagued Truth Social competitors like Parler and Gettr. All the action occurs in the comments of its most popular users. People are just looped into conversations with others who happen to stumble upon their thread in a reply section full of thousands and thousands of comments.

If you're not Trump or Dan Bongino or some other conservative influencer, you're barely seeing any interaction on Truth Social. Even worse, these personalities are barely even acknowledging the people who are conversing in their replies. This all gives the average user very little reason to stick around on the platform.

I figured Trump's followers would flock to Truth Social just to read his tweets, so I valued the company at a few billion dollars. But if even he's not using it, it's worthless...

4) I'm a big fan of – and, to a much lesser extent, an avid participant in – epic adventures, and none is more epic than what happened to Antarctic explorer Sir Ernest Shackleton.

In 1915, his ship, the Endurance, became trapped in sea ice and was eventually holed and sank, forcing Shackleton and his crew on an extraordinary months-long journey. Thanks to Shackleton's exceptional bravery and leadership, they all survived! My favorite book about it is Endurance: Shackleton's Incredible Voyage.

So I was thrilled to see this news: Endurance: Shackleton's lost ship is found in Antarctic. The only thing that rivals this is the discovery of the Titanic. Excerpt:

Scientists have found and filmed one of the greatest ever undiscovered shipwrecks 107 years after it sank.

The Endurance, the lost vessel of Antarctic explorer Sir Ernest Shackleton, was found at the weekend at the bottom of the Weddell Sea.

The ship was crushed by sea-ice and sank in 1915, forcing Shackleton and his men to make an astonishing escape on foot and in small boats.

Video of the remains show Endurance to be in remarkable condition.

Even though it has been sitting in 3 km (10,000 ft) of water for over a century, it looks just like it did on the November day it went down.

Its timbers, although disrupted, are still very much together, and the name – Endurance – is clearly visible on the stern.

"Without any exaggeration this is the finest wooden shipwreck I have ever seen – by far," said marine archaeologist Mensun Bound, who is on the discovery expedition and has now fulfilled a dream ambition in his near 50-year career.

"It is upright, well proud of the seabed, intact, and in a brilliant state of preservation," he told BBC News.

Check out these amazing pictures and this short video:

Best regards,

Whitney

P.S. I welcome your feedback at WTDfeedback@empirefinancialresearch.com.