My presentation yesterday at the Stansberry Research annual conference; Why inflation will stay low; U2 at The Sphere; I almost missed my flight back from Las Vegas
1) Yesterday at the Stansberry Research annual conference in Las Vegas, I gave a 30-minute presentation on a number of topics...
I started by looking back at my presentation a year ago, during which I recommended buying three stocks. Here's how they have performed since then:
All three remain buys today.
I also highlighted my "Dirty Dozen" least-favorite stocks at last year's conference, which had fallen by 47% since I named them on January 4 of that year – far worse than the 19% decline in the S&P 500 Index. Here's the table I shared last year:
I warned the audience not to be tempted by the lower prices and continue to avoid all of them. Sure enough, they have been cut in half again, despite the S&P 500's 14% increase. Here's the table I shared this year:
I would continue to avoid these bags of crap (though I removed DWAC and GME from the list earlier this year).
2) I then pivoted to why I'm constructive on the market going forward, in contrast to many of the other speakers, who were super bearish.
I started with some charts on inflation:
As I've said numerous times here in my daily e-mails, I think inflation is going to remain in the 3% to 4% range as shelter costs decline:
In fact, the latest inflation number of 3.7% is actually overstated because nearly a quarter of it includes a 7.8% increase in "owners' equivalent rent," which is an estimate for how much a homeowner could rent their house out for.
But: a) homeowners don't actually pay this... and b) the 7.8% number reflects a significant lag effect that will dissipate going forward because housing prices have flattened.
Removing owners' equivalent rent, inflation last month was only 2.5%:
Lastly, businesses' expectations for inflation – which, in a circular way, is an important contributor to what future inflation will be – has declined to only 2.5%:
I'll continue sharing excerpts from my presentation in upcoming e-mails... Stay tuned!
2) Last night, my friend and colleague Enrique Abeyta and I went to see rock band U2 at Vegas' incredible new entertainment venue The Sphere.
Here are pictures of us in front of The Sphere and from the concert, and here are some video clips:
Both the concert and the venue were spectacular!
In his Empire Elite Growth newsletter, Enrique is bullish on the stock of the company that owns the venue: Sphere Entertainment (SPHR)... and says venue's recent opening and increased attention could be a catalyst for SPHR shares to move higher. (If you aren't already a subscriber, you can find out how to gain access to all of Enrique's open recommendations in Empire Elite Growth right here.)
Sphere Entertainment was also written up in June on ValueInvestorsClub here.
3) I'm currently halfway across the country on a flight I was lucky to make...
It departed at 6:45 a.m., so last night I set my alarm for 5:15 a.m. But when I happened to wake up and look at my phone, I saw that it was 5:43 a.m... I had set my alarm for 5:15 p.m.!
Cursing, I scrambled to grab my bags and get a taxi. Fortunately the airport is only 15 minutes from The Strip, so I made my flight with 10 minutes to spare. Phew!
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback at WTDfeedback@empirefinancialresearch.com.