Wages outpacing inflation; Inflation is under control; Is it Possible to Live 'Off the Grid' in Manhattan?; My three conversations with Joshua Spodek; Running vs. Walking: Which Is Better for Lasting Health?
1) This post on X, formerly known as Twitter, by CNBC's Carl Quintanilla highlights good news for American workers – and the economy:
In fact, according to economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, the news is even better...
As he explains in a recent op-ed, Bidenomics and the Guys in the Bar, the sharp decline in average hourly earnings in early 2021 – shown in the chart above – simply reflects businesses like restaurants and hotels rehiring low-income workers as the world reopened.
Adjusted for the mix of workers, the chart looks like this:
As Krugman concludes:
What we can say, with considerable certainty, is that while prices have gone up a lot since the pandemic began, most workers' wages have risen significantly more:
2) Speaking of inflation, here's further evidence for what I've been saying for some time: inflation looks like it's under control and no longer an issue:
Whenever I write about this, some readers e-mail me to say that I'm missing the big price increases for [pick your product or service]. Krugman apparently gets the same e-mails, and responded as follows in his op-ed:
OK, at this point one runs into a buzz saw of criticism. I am regularly assured by correspondents that economists' measures of inflation are meaningless, because they exclude food and energy. No, they don't; economists often use measures of "core" inflation for analytical purposes, but the Consumer Price Index, which is what I'm using here, includes everything.
Or I'm told that real people know that inflation is still running hot, whatever the government numbers may say. Actually, the American Farm Bureau Association, a private group, tells us that Thanksgiving dinner cost 4.5% less this year than last. Gasbuddy.com, another private group, tells us that prices at the pump are down more than 30% since their peak last year. Neither turkeys nor gas prices are good measures of underlying inflation, but both show that the narrative of inflation still running wild is just not true.
Sorry, folks, but "immaculate disinflation" – rapidly falling inflation without a recession or a big rise in unemployment – is actually happening. The 2021 to 2022 inflation surge definitely rattled Americans after decades of relative price stability, and I'm not here to lecture people about their feelings. But I guess I am here to lecture journalists about using statistics. Presenting misleading numbers that seem to justify public opinion is actually an act of disrespect: Voters have a right to their feelings, but journalists have a duty to present the facts, as best we can understand them.
3) I got a kick out of this Daily Show segment: The Daily Show: Is it Possible to Live "Off the Grid" in Manhattan?
It interviewed author, NYU professor, and environmental activist Joshua Spodek, who is one of the most outside-the-box people I've ever met. He's a fascinating individual – among other things, he's the only other person I know who picks up trash every day when he's out walking near his home. Here are excerpts from his bio:
He holds a PhD in astrophysics and an MBA from Columbia, where he studied under a Nobel Laureate and helped launch a satellite...
He teaches and coaches leadership and entrepreneurship at NYU...
He visited North Korea twice, swam across the Hudson River twice, has done burpees daily since 2011 (211,000 and counting), takes over 4 years to produce one load of garbage, hasn't flown (by choice) since March 2016, unplugged his refrigerator since September 2021, disconnected his apartment from the electric grid in May 2022, and his carbon footprint is about 1 ton per year. He blogs daily at joshuaspodek.com.
Spodek and I had three wide-ranging (102-, 83-, and 69-minute) conversations in June, July, and August 2022 on his This Sustainable Life podcast. You can listen to our conversations here (I suggest at 2 times speed).
Here's the summary of our first conversation:
Whitney's background and accomplishments are incredible and we start with them. He shares his beliefs and mindsets that lead to his high performance in business, philanthropy, fitness, family, and more.
Then we share a fun part of how I invited him to this podcast. After he, in a friendly, helpful way, cursed at some of his newsletter readers in criticizing their behavior during the pandemic, I cursed at him in the same friendly, helpful way. The e-mail got his attention. It led to us meeting in person to pick up litter in Washington Square Park (where he saw his first drug deal in the corner with the syringe drug users), then to recording in person at my apartment.
When we spoke on the environment, I heard a common mix: he connected deeply with it, including majestic experiences at some of Earth's most extreme environments, and he also felt about its problems that he couldn't do anything meaningful.
My favorite part of my conversation with Whitney was how he put up nearly every form of delay, resistance, and obstacle any other guest has responded to my invitation to act on his environmental values. I believe we were both patient, listened, spoke to be understood. After he found something to act on, you'll hear the change in his perspective on acting on intrinsic motivation versus what sounded to me like trying to save the world, or feeling you have to, but disconnected from intrinsic motivation.
Here's the summary of our second:
We start by my reading the e-mails where I invited Whitney to this podcast by cursing with a few f-bombs, showing how we started our interactions. Before recording our first episode we met in Washington Square Park and picked up litter together.
(Read my e-mails cursing at Whitney Tilson that brought him to my podcast.)
Whitney shares how he created and maintains his following, speaking his mind, deliberately sharing provocative opinions. He shares how and why he engaged so much on the pandemic. I see that passion raising the potential for him to engage on sustainability, but we'll see. He became as knowledgeable as anyone I know and led a large number of people on it.
Then we talked about carbon offsets. I shared my Two Carbon Cycle Explanation, though I've since simplified it in The simple explanation why offsets don't work.
We talked about flying. I since found some peer-reviewed numbers, which I posted in Some flying pollution numbers. In the week before recording, he flew round trip to Seattle, Miami, Bahamas, and in the next week Rwanda.
Then he shared his reasons for not engaging on the environment. You'll recognize them. Remember when he said he was uninformed? On the contrary, I'd say, he learned everything he needed to justify feeling good about not changing his behavior. Even so, I respect and admire that he engaged in our conversation and started finding ways to act.
And here's the summary of our third:
In our third conversation, Whitney and I get more friendly and conversational, fun conversation.
He's been picking up more garbage, which I hope is part of a journey of continual improvement. Since long before we met, he rides his bike to get around the city. Otherwise, he's focused on other things in life than sustainability. He's examined a lot of parts of his life, but not his impact on other people mediated through the environment.
I'm not trying to change people who don't show they want to change, so we just talk. You'll hear a very thoughtful, active leader speak with me about his views and environmental values.
4) There are huge benefits from going from sedentary to even moderate exercise, but also huge benefits to ramping up to vigorous exercise occasionally, as this NYT article notes: Running vs. Walking: Which Is Better for Lasting Health? Excerpt:
Federal health guidelines recommend 150 minutes to 300 minutes per week of moderate-intensity aerobic activity, like brisk walking, or half as much for vigorous activity. That might suggest that running is twice as good as walking. But when it comes to the key outcome of longevity, some studies have found running to be even more effective than that.
In 2011, researchers in Taiwan asked more than 400,000 adults how much vigorous exercise (like jogging or running) and moderate exercise (like brisk walking) they did. They found that regular five-minute runs extended subjects' life spans as much as going for 15-minute walks did. Regular 25-minute runs and 105-minute walks each resulted in about a 35% lower risk of dying during the following eight years.
Those numbers make sense, given running's effect on fitness. In a 2014 study, Dr. Lee and his colleagues found that regular runners – including those jogging slower than 6 miles per hour – were 30% fitter than walkers and sedentary people. They also had a 30% lower risk of dying over the next 15 years.
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback – send me an e-mail by clicking here.