1) Wall Street analysts are falling all over themselves to issue bullish reports on SpaceX (SPCX). Here are their price targets:
• Raymond James: $800
• Morgan Stanley: $300
• Deutsche Bank: $255
• Macquarie: $250
• Cantor Fitzgerald: $246
• Bank of America: $235
• Wells Fargo: $230
• J.P. Morgan: $225
• UBS: $210
• Goldman Sachs: $205
• Citibank: $200
• Needham: $200
• Mizuho: $200
• Morningstar: $63
Keep in mind, the stock closed yesterday at $148.30.
As you can see in the list, there's one outlier to the downside: Morningstar, with a price target less than one-third of the next-lowest bank. Care to guess why?
Because it's the only one that isn't an investment bank or advisory firm.
When SpaceX went public recently in the biggest IPO of all time, 21 banks split a $500 million fee pool. Lead underwriters Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) pocketed $100 million each.
And that's just the beginning of how Wall Street will profit...
SpaceX has an absurdly overvalued stock. With a $2 trillion market cap, it's currently valued at more than 100 times revenues. So it will no doubt be seeking to use its stock to make lots of acquisitions – which means more banking and advisory fees.
The company's losses totaled $4.9 billion in 2025 and hit $4.3 billion in just the first three months of this year (see my June 5 e-mail). That means SpaceX will also likely be issuing lots of debt and equity, resulting in even more fees.
All those fees buy a lot of fawning coverage.
What do you call someone who sells themselves for money?
Well, I'll let you choose the word that applies to these "analysts" here...
The most over-the-top report comes from the "analysts" at Raymond James, who slapped an $800 price target on SPCX – more than five times the current price. That would value SpaceX at more than $10 trillion – more than double the most valuable company in the world today, Nvidia (NVDA).
Here's a screenshot of the summary of the report's cover page:
They claim that SpaceX's revenue "today" is $38.5 billion – but trailing-12-month ("TTM") revenue is actually $19.3 billion. And they're projecting it will soar to $837 billion by 2031 – a 43-fold increase in a mere five years.
As for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ("EBITDA"), I have no idea where the "analysts" came up with $17.7 billion. It's actually an estimated $7 billion in the past 12 months.
They project this figure will skyrocket to $696 billion in the next five years – a nearly 100-fold increase. This is more than four times the TTM EBITDA of Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT).
This is all beyond absurd. I'm tempted to frame their report under the heading, "Why I Never Read Analyst Reports."
Lastly, my old friend and famed short seller Jim Chanos shared this doozy on social platform X from one of the analyst reports (he didn't say which one):
It goes without saying, but I'll say it again anyway: Avoid SpaceX.
2) Another stock I've been warning my readers to avoid is bitcoin holder Strategy (MSTR) – most recently on June 30.
The stock is down 38% this year. And now that it's trading at a discount to the value of the bitcoin it owns, the entire Ponzi scheme is collapsing...
The company is being forced to sell bitcoin – something co-founder and former CEO Michael Saylor had promised to never do. That doesn't bode well for Strategy's stock or the price of bitcoin, as my friend Chris Irons notes in this Substack post:
The company differentiated itself from virtually every other corporate holder by insisting that selling simply wasn't part of the playbook.
That narrative is over. And quite frankly, now it looks like it was all total bullshit all along. The market now knows Strategy isn't just willing to sell Bitcoin in size, it already has. And it has formalized a framework under which additional sales aren't an emergency measure but a legitimate capital management tool.
That changes how investors should think about the balance sheet. Every future discussion about Strategy's liquidity now carries an obvious follow up question: how much Bitcoin might they sell next?
That's a very different conversation than the one investors were having just a few months ago.
He concludes:
Participants now know that one of Bitcoin's largest corporate holders has transformed from a perpetual buyer into a potential source of ongoing supply.
Again, that doesn't mean Strategy is about to dump hundreds of thousands of coins. There's no evidence of that, and today's sales are tiny relative to its overall holdings. But markets don't only price what is happening. They also price what could happen.
And for the first time, investors have to factor in the possibility that an owner sitting on more than 846,000 Bitcoin may continue selling whenever liquidity, dividends, debt service, or capital allocation require it...
Ironically, this is exactly the scenario many critics warned would eventually emerge. Once you build an increasingly complex capital structure on top of a volatile asset, eventually that asset stops being a sacred reserve and starts becoming working capital.
3) Another sector I'd avoid is semiconductors, which has seen an unprecedented spike, as Charlie Bilello shows in this X post:
4) A quick follow-up to my e-mails on Monday and Tuesday about Netflix (NFLX), which I think is very interesting at today's price...
As part of a deeper dive into the company, I watched this half-hour interview of Netflix's co-CEO Ted Sarandos, conducted by my friend and New York University marketing professor Scott Galloway and his colleague Ed Elson.
I thought Sarandos was very impressive and had some great responses!
5) As a last note: In yesterday's e-mail, I analyzed the historical financials and valuation of Latin American Internet giant MercadoLibre (MELI) and promised to do a deeper dive today. As you can see, I got sidetracked. But I promise to get to it soon...
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback – send me an e-mail by clicking here.
P.P.S. There are 1,248 UNESCO World Heritage Sites globally, spread across 170 countries. Italy has the most, with 61 – and my friend Christopher, my parents, and I visited two of them yesterday...
We went to the beautiful town of Alberobello, famous for its more than 1,500 "trulli" – iconic, whitewashed limestone dwellings with conical, dry-stone roofs – and the Castel del Monte, a 13th-century citadel and castle. Here are some pictures:
