Avoid these 26 'behavioral finance' traps; The 'most crowded trade on Wall Street'; My friend Doug Kass' 10 surprises for 2024

December 21, 2023

1) Trying to predict the future of companies, stocks, markets, the economy, or anything else is always difficult, especially given how many "behavioral finance" traps are out there.

Here are 26 of these traps that you need to watch out for:

Overconfidence
Projecting the immediate past into the distant future
Herd-like behavior (social proof), driven by a desire to be part of the crowd or an assumption that the crowd is omniscient
Decision and willpower fatigue
Misunderstanding randomness – seeing patterns that don't exist
Commitment and consistency bias
Fear of change, resulting in a strong bias for the status quo
"Anchoring" on irrelevant data
Excessive aversion to loss
Using mental accounting to treat some money (such as gambling winnings or an unexpected bonus) differently than other money
Allowing emotional connections to override reason
Fear of uncertainty
Embracing certainty (however irrelevant)
Overestimating the likelihood of certain events based on very memorable data or experiences (vividness bias)
Becoming paralyzed by information overload
Failing to act due to an abundance of attractive options
Fear of making an incorrect decision and feeling stupid (regret aversion)
Ignoring important data points and focusing excessively on less important ones – drawing conclusions from a limited sample size
Reluctance to admit mistakes
After finding out whether or not an event occurred, overestimating the degree to which one would have predicted the correct outcome (hindsight bias)
Believing that one's investment success is due to wisdom rather than a rising market, but failures are not one's fault
Failing to accurately assess one's investment time horizon
A tendency to seek only information that confirms one's opinions or decisions (confirmation bias)
Failing to recognize the large, cumulative effect of small amounts invested over time
Forgetting the powerful tendency of regression to the mean
Confusing familiarity with knowledge

2) To think more clearly and make more accurate forecasts, I always try to seek out and keep my mind open to contrary/disconfirming data and opinions.

As such, I welcomed this insightful column in the Wall Street Journal last week: Beware the Most Crowded Trade on Wall Street: Next Year's Soft Landing. Excerpt:

At the end of last year, investors thought recession was a done deal. The year before, they thought big tech would be immune to rate increases. And a year before that, they were convinced that paying high prices for stocks popular with the wider public would make them rich.

This December, they believe, again with absolute conviction, that the economy is heading for a soft landing and lower interest rates. Maybe this time they will be right.

Then again, maybe not. Being in the crowd is always an uncomfortable place for an investor, but agreeing with such a strong consensus is especially difficult, because if it turns out to be wrong, the punishment from the markets will be painful – just as it was in each of the past three years.

The consensus that next year the Federal Reserve will be able to slash rates without facing recession was strong even before the central bank put out a dovish forecast on Wednesday. It got even stronger as a result of the Fed's new "dot plot" of forecasts, with futures traders putting a 16% probability on a rate cut as soon as next month and an 82% chance of a cut by March.

I also have an out-of-consensus view regarding how quickly the Fed will cut rates next year...

I think the economy is going to remain strong enough for the Fed to hold rates steady, rather than cutting them, for longer than most people think.

While investors may be disappointed at the slower-than-expected pace of cuts, the strong economy and resulting robust corporate profits will be good for stocks... which is why I remain constructive.

3) Speaking of contrary/disconfirming opinions...

I always enjoy the annual surprises list that my friend Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners publishes. Historically, a shocking number of his out-of-consensus views have come true...

Doug recently released his "10 Surprises of 2024," which he has kindly given me permission to share with my readers. Here it is below...

* A vast array of unexpected political, geopolitical, economic, and market surprises could be on tap for next year.

Concentrate on finding a big idea that will make an impact on the people you want to influence. The Ten Surprises, which I started doing in 1986, has been a defining product. People all over the world are aware of it and identify me with it. What they seem to like about it is that I put myself at risk by going on record with these events which I believe are probable and hold myself accountable at year-end. If you want to be successful and live a long, stimulating life, keep yourself at risk intellectually all the time.

– Byron Wien

In this year's 10 Surprises List for 2024, I am paying homage to my dear pal Byron Wien who passed away two months ago. Here is my recent tribute to Byron.

In doing so I have abandoned my own format over the last 22 years in favor of adopting Byron's format – from his style to the brevity and conciseness of his surprises over the last 38 years.

(Here was By's Ten Surprises of 2023: Byron Wien and Joe Zidle Announce the Ten Surprises of 2023 – Blackstone). I even included several "also rans" surprises – just the way Byron did!

My 10 Surprises of 2024 are as follows:

1. Donald Trump is convicted of obstruction and conspiracy.

In an agreement between the former President and the current President, Biden pardons Trump in exchange for Trump agreeing to leave the 2024 Presidential race.

Governor Ron DeSantis finishes third in both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and drops out of the race – with Nikki Haley capturing many of his supporters – closing the gap with Trump. Chris Christie drops out soon thereafter while Vivek Ramaswamy hangs on to the bitter end. Nikki Haley becomes the Republican Presidential nominee.

In early September, shortly after Biden wins the nomination, the President suffers a health emergency and, like Trump, leaves the race. If Trump indeed has left the race, Governor Gavin Newsom is selected as the replacement nominee for Biden. If Trump is still in the race (and not convicted) and Biden does have a health emergency, the Democrats draft Governor Gretchen Whitmer after first trying to attract Michelle Obama into the fray (she demurs).

Whether the contest is between Haley/Newsom or Trump/Whitmer, the winner will be the first woman president... either Nikki Haley or Gretchen Whitmer.

2. In part [due to] fear that Democrats will continue to hold on to the presidency, foreign powers step up military confrontations.

The West continues to lose patience with how the war is going with Ukraine as the U.S. backs off of its support. Negotiations on a territorial split begin and Ukraine is forced to give up the East of the country to Russia.

North Korea, with support from Russia, undertakes skirmishes in the Demilitarized Zone and makes threats to invade South Korea. Iran completes its nuclear buildup which provokes a direct attack from Israel. Though China doesn't invade Taiwan it continues with aggressive war game tactics in the South China Sea.

The global economy is more susceptible to supply shocks than is generally believed. With Russia and Saudi Arabia conspiring on production cuts, the price of oil exceeds $110/barrel and the price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. approaches $6. Shares of ExxonMobil (XOM), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Chevron (CVX) each rise by over one-third next year.

3. There is neither a soft landing nor a hard landing – just very sluggish real growth in the U.S. economy.

With no negative payroll prints, wages continue to grow at a three to four percent rate as unemployment stays below 4.5%. China's economy starts a surprising recovery causing commodity prices to begin to inflect higher and oil begins a slow but persistent recovery in price. Inflation fails to tick much lower, remaining well above the Fed's target. Nonetheless, with the polls tight and in an effort to influence the election, the Federal Reserve cuts rates twice before July.

These policy moves and conditions prompt a resurgence in headline inflation, and as discussed above, in a further spike in the price of oil in late summer – complicating the Fed's desire to cut rates. Though domestic growth begins to trail off in the last six months of the year and unemployment moves higher, no further interest rate cuts occur over the balance of the year. It's slugflation (sluggish economic growth, sticky inflation), clear as day.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which today is at 3.91%, never declines below 3.75% and fluctuates between 3.75% and 4.75% most of the year. A developing US recession, late in the year, sends the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP to 10% or more – overwhelming Treasury supply and sending the 10-year yield back above 5%.

The U.S. federal debt problem is no longer shrugged off by investors – it looms larger in late 2024 and slowly becomes a serious systemic problem in the years ahead.

Creditors demand more to buy U.S. debt. After the 10-year Treasury yield touches 5.5%, the Fed ends [quantitative tightening] and restarts, temporarily, [quantitative easing] – breaking its word of sticking to its inflation target.

4. The S&P 500 Index never exceeds 4,900 and drops to under 4,100 in the oil price scare.

Despite all the macroeconomic, geopolitical, and political drama, the trading range for most of 2024 is the narrowest in years. The S&P Index ends the year with about a 5% to 10% decline. Led by the drop in the shares of Apple (AAPL), the Nasdaq Composite Index ends the year with a decline of between 10% and 20%. The market doesn't broaden out further and the Russell 2000 Index also exhibits a loss for the year as many components of the Russell face financial (debt rollover) and operating headwinds.

5. The biggest and most popular stock in the world, Apple, suffers a large percentage loss in 2024 as trade tensions with China escalate.

With China supporting Huawei, Apple loses substantial market share in that country and overall revenues decline again in 2024 (over 2023). Meanwhile, as a result of the Google antitrust case, [Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL)] stops paying Apple $18 billion in search fees. Apple's shares drop to below $130/share. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) "doubles down" on its already large Apple stock holdings – raising its position to nearly two billion shares.

6. Fears of credit problems are realized and the banking industry, among others, suffers large loan losses.

Commercial real estate fails to recover in price. A wave of commercial real estate busts [creates] another regional banking crisis and forces the [Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation] to negotiate several bank mergers. In 2024, bank stocks return to their 2023 lows.

7. Wall Street's most vicious vultures – private equity – are about to get torn to shreds.

With still elevated interest rates, especially in the second half of the year, and a slowing global economy, loan rate resets contribute to a leader in private credit failing. Blackstone's (BX) shares drop by a third after BREIT (private real estate fund run by Blackstone) and Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) come under new redemption pressures.

Shares of other private equity stocks – Apollo Global Management (APO) and KKR (KKR) – plunge as the [U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission] opens an investigation into the failure of the private equity industry to realistically mark-to-market their portfolios in a timely manner.

8. What would a surprise list be without mention of Elon Musk?

It is revealed that Elon Musk suffers from a serious addiction. Entering an extended stay in rehab, Musk is forced to temporarily relinquish operating control over his companies. Tesla's (TSLA) shares fall back to the lows of 2023.

9. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Paramount Global (PARA) suffer operationally and financially ("profitless prosperity").

Streaming fails to fulfill optimistic expectations – the total addressable market is over estimated, content costs remain high, and profits are nonexistent.

On the brink of a liquidity crisis, Shari Redstone sells Paramount (at a discounted price) to private equity. Disney's (DIS) shares trade in the $70s and corporate raider Nelson Peltz sells out for a large loss. Bill Ackman's Pershing Square hedge fund purchases Peltz's shares.

10. JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) Jamie Dimon departs the bank and joins either the Haley or Whitmer Administration as Secretary of Treasury.

Marianne Lake becomes CEO of JPMorgan.

The 'Also Rans' of 2024

Every year Byron used to write that there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten, because he either did not think they were as relevant as those on the basic list or he was not comfortable with the idea that they are "probable."

Here are my "also rans" of 2024:

11. The sports story of the year is that Tiger Woods wins a major title.

12. Goldman Sachs' (GS) Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon, resigns. He moves to Miami, Florida and becomes a full-time DJ. Ericka Leslie becomes the CEO of Goldman Sachs – joining Jane Fraser (Citigroup) and Marianne Lake (JPMorgan) as the third woman to run a major U.S. financial institution.

13. The Court overrules previous decisions and accepts Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) use of the "Texas Two-Step" to tackle baby powder liabilities. JNJ shares rise to over $200/share.

14. 0DTE options (zero days to expiration) cause a 3% to 5% flash crash on a day's-end expiration during the summer.

15. In addition to Apple's fall from grace another member of the Magnificent 7 succumbs to "economic gravity" and has a significant earnings disappointment and lowers forward guidance. After closing 2023 near their 52-week highs, during frequent episodes in 2024 the share price performance of the heavily owned (and loved!) Magnificent 7 more resembles the weak absolute and relative underperformance of 2022.

Thank you, Doug! As always, I'll be interested to see which of your predictions come to pass...

Best regards,

Whitney

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P.P.S. Our offices will be closed tomorrow and Monday in observance of Christmas. Look for my next daily e-mail on Tuesday, December 26, after the Weekly Recap... and have a wonderful holiday!