Replay of last week's special broadcast; Economic indicators; The potential face of a U.S. labor shortage; Global shipping costs rising; Chart of 150 years of exports; New iPhone setting to protect your digital life
1) Did you miss it?
Last week, I went on camera to share a breakthrough that I consider a must-have for investing.
In fact, it's the biggest investing breakthrough in Stansberry Research's 25-year history – a new way to see which stocks could double your money, by using a strategy that you would normally need $2 million to access.
And because of a surprising shift I see coming to stocks this year, it's going to be critical for 2024.
If you missed the broadcast covering this incredible breakthrough, a replay is still available with all the details – check it out here.
2) I follow dozens of economic indicators and try to share the most important, interesting, and/or unusual ones with my readers. Here are a few that have hit my radar screen in the past couple of weeks...
In a dream world, we would want strong wage growth for average Americans that outpaces inflation... but doesn't trigger a surge in inflation.
As Liz Ann Sonders – Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist – notes in this post, the key to this is to have a rising labor-force-participation rate... which is exactly what's happening now. That bodes well for our workers, economy, and stock market.
Here's her post with the corresponding chart:
3) Another factor that will keep wages rising is a labor shortage – a little bit of which is good, but too much of it will crimp growth.
Here's an insightful New York Times article about one of the places facing the great labor shortage: Vermont May Be the Face of a Long-Term U.S. Labor Shortage. Excerpt:
Vermont offers an early look at where the rest of the country could be headed. The baby boom population is aging out of the work force, and subsequent generations aren't large enough to fully replace it. Immigration slumped during the pandemic, and though it has since rebounded, it is unclear how long that will last, given a lack of broad political support for higher immigration. Birthrates are falling...
Vermont's unemployment rate was 1.9% in September, among the lowest in the country, and the labor force is still thousands of people smaller than before the pandemic. Employers are fighting over scarce workers, offering wage increases, signing bonuses and child care subsidies, alongside enticements such as free ski passes. When those tactics fail, many are limiting operating hours and scaling back product offerings.
I can attest that this article is accurate.
My best friend from high school lives in southern Vermont and I am the godfather of his college-aged son. Last summer he earned $30 per hour to paint houses – and was encouraged to work overtime, for which he was paid $45 per hour!
4) I've said it before, and I'll say it again...
The economic indicators these days are all over the map, so no matter what your preexisting biases are, you can find plenty of data to support them.
Here's a good example: the first two items above show a super-tight labor market, yet this chart (also from Liz Ann Sonders) indicates weakening:
So which story is correct?
I think the answer is in the middle. The Federal Reserve's rapid rate hikes from March 2022 through the end of last year succeeded in cooling a white-hot economy and labor market, which brought inflation under control. I'm optimistic that we're now in a happy middle ground...
5) Here's another interesting chart from Sonders:
It will be interesting to see what happens to global shipping costs in light of yesterday's deadly drone attack in Jordan that killed three U.S. soldiers and wounded many more, which will lead to a U.S. retaliatory strike. The odds of a broader conflict in the Middle East have risen significantly...
6) This is a fascinating chart (courtesy of Visual Capitalist):
It really highlights the decline of the United Kingdom since 1870, the rise of China since 1980, and how quickly Japan and Germany rebounded after World War II.
7) There are so many scammers out there... so if you have an iPhone, do as this Wall Street Journal article says: Turn On This New iPhone Setting to Protect Your Money and Photos. Excerpt:
How do you protect your life savings, decades of photos, and the rest of your digital life? By flipping a new switch buried in your iPhone's settings menu.
On Monday, as a part of the now-available iOS 17.3 update, Apple released Stolen Device Protection. The setting adds a layer of security that could foil a thief who has stolen both your iPhone and the passcode you use to unlock it.
The release follows The Wall Street Journal's yearlong investigation on iPhone thefts happening across the country. Thieves with an iPhone and its passcode quickly lock their victims out of their Apple accounts by changing the password and other settings. Then they go for the money, draining bank accounts, opening credit cards, and more. One thief, who is now in prison in Minnesota, told us how he stole hundreds of iPhones and hundreds of thousands of dollars by taking advantage of this vulnerability.
Stolen Device Protection makes a lot of that harder for a criminal – if you turn it on...
In its default state, Apple's iOS gives victims few ways of preventing harm if their passcodes fall into the wrong hands.
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback – send me an e-mail by clicking here.