Things Are Going Sideways
No joke... It's a sideways market... What to watch this week... The Fed, debt-ceiling blabber, and earnings... A possible chance to buy the banking crisis... The government can't wipe out cryptos... Joel Litman on the next crisis ahead – and how to prepare...
It was another day in a 'sideways' trip...
If you haven't taken the time to "zoom out" on the markets in a while, it's easy to miss this fact: U.S. stocks have been trading nearly perfectly sideways since early April.
The benchmark S&P 500 Index closed April 3 at 4,124.51. Today, the index closed at 4,136.28... a difference of about a quarter of a percent. And except for a little volatility at the start of May, it has been nearly a straight trip sideways.
Somebody could have told you on April Fools' Day that nothing major would happen for many U.S. stocks. You might have assumed they were pulling your leg... But if you trustingly ignored the headlines and your brokerage account for the next six weeks, your investments would still be just where you'd left them (unless you'd owned stock in certain regional banks).
This is kind of the point...
We've recently written that, yes, there are risks ahead for the U.S. economy, like for a recession later this year. Plus, there's a lot of mainstream blabber about the debt-ceiling negotiations, which will eventually be resolved the same way as dozens of times over dozens of years... (Answer: a higher and inflationary debt limit for Uncle Sam.)
In the meantime, the largest U.S. index isn't moving up and hasn't been able to burst through a technical "resistance" level of highs made back in December 2022 and again in February. But the bottom hasn't fallen out, either.
Over the past month, maybe the best thing you could have done is to follow a piece of advice that I (Corey McLaughlin) have emphasized in Digest after Digest: Own shares of high-quality companies with a history of paying out reliable dividends – which can compound in better, bullish times – because a lot of share prices haven't budged that much.
It's a boring, but beautiful way to make money in the long run.
That said, some potential market-moving events are looming...
Our Stansberry NewsWire's Kevin Sanford delivered them to subscribers of our free news service this morning. We don't need more "Fedspeak" in our lives, but we'll get it anyway.
As Kevin wrote, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr is scheduled to testify before Congress on Thursday. Legislators will ask him to discuss the recent turmoil in the banking sector and address questions related to the central bank's response. And several other Fed officials have scheduled talks.
Separately, another confab in Washington, D.C. with our dear "leaders" is scheduled for tomorrow. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are the main characters in this discussion of the debt ceiling.
And don't forget earnings season... (To which I say in a thought bubble: "Isn't it always earnings season?")
Big retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) will report first-quarter earnings this week, perhaps giving some insight and color into consumer spending and inventory trends heading into the summer.
Remember, we don't like to make knee-jerk reactions to the headlines. But taken as a whole, the "news" is worth following to put together a more complete story of what's happening in the economy and markets.
We recently revamped our NewsWire coverage with new features, and I think it's looking great. Be sure to follow along with Kevin each morning for insight and analysis you won't find anywhere else.
It's even a great spot to keep up with our publishing schedule. Here it is for this week... (By the way, this doesn't include our daily publications like DailyWealth Trader or Greg Diamond's round-the-clock Ten Stock Trader advisory.)
Getting closer to 'buying the fear'...
Speaking of Greg, he wrote to Ten Stock Trader subscribers today that he's eyeing up an opportunity to "buy the fear" in bank stocks. Patience is still warranted, as it has been the past few weeks. But what Greg is seeing in technical indicators lately is getting him prepared to make a possible trade...
Greg didn't specify what catalyst that might be. One possibility that I see is investors seizing on some hope based on what they hear in the congressional testimony. But as Greg's subscribers know, he doesn't necessarily care about what the headlines are... just what prices are doing when he's eyeing trades.
Existing Ten Stock Trader subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find more detail in Greg's Weekly Market Outlook today, as well as an intraday follow-up post here.
Elsewhere, cryptos are back in the mainstream conversation...
As our Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade explained in his latest weekly video update on Friday...
The crypto industry must contend with Washington, D.C. lawmakers attacking blockchain technology again. The Federal Reserve is aiming to launch a central bank digital currency ("CBDC"), and other entities are still threatening to interfere with cryptocurrencies amid this volatile market.
So this week we'll go down those rabbit holes and discuss Wyoming's stable token, Florida, a U.S. presidential candidate, and our decentralized technology. While there are threats, they're unlikely to stop blockchain's technological advances.
Existing Crypto Capital subscribers and Alliance members can catch all the details here. In short, Eric is not worried about cryptocurrencies "ending" even if the government rolls out a CBDC. If anything, that could be a bullish development for cryptos...
Finally, time is running out to get ahead of this crisis...
As I wrote last week, Joel Litman, founder of our corporate affiliate Altimetry, has been preparing for the next market crisis. And he says it's one that many people probably aren't expecting.
It has nothing to do with the banks or the debt limit... But Joel says this upcoming market event will be 20 times larger than the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Last week, he went on camera to explain all the details. He explained that Wall Street's top hedge funds are getting ready for this event, but time is running out to follow their lead.
Be sure to catch Joel's presentation right here for the full story.
Just for tuning in, you'll get two free recommendations... one buy recommendation and the ticker of another stock to avoid at all costs. Plus, tonight is your last chance to grab a "mystery gift" valued at $1,000 from Joel and his team.
Debating a Potential Warning Sign
On this episode of Making Money With Matt McCall, Matt welcomes Michael Gayed – the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report – who sees reason to believe that trouble is ahead for housing stocks. But Matt isn't so sure...
Click here to watch or listen to this episode right now. And to catch all of Matt's shows and more videos and podcasts from the Stansberry Research team, be sure to visit our Stansberry Investor platform anytime.
New 52-week highs (as of 5/12/23): ABB (ABB), Copart (CPRT), Cintas (CTAS), General Mills (GIS), Innodata (INOD), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), PulteGroup (PHM), Rollins (ROL), Roper Technologies (ROP), and Republic Services (RSG).
In today's mailbag, we've got no shortage of opinions about Lance Armstrong, who will speak at our 21st annual Stansberry Conference this October in Las Vegas. (By the way, tickets are now available. Click here for more details to learn how to hear from Armstrong himself and the rest of our lineup of guests and Stansberry Research editors in Vegas.) We also have some feedback on Dan Ferris' latest Friday essay, which included a coronation of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon... As always, if you have comments or questions, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"I am appalled that you would have chosen Lance Armstrong as your keynote speaker. What will his message be: How to cheat on a world stage and try and get away with it? Or that sooner or later the truth will come out, so cheating does not pay?" – Paid-up subscriber Michael W.
"Let's just put it plainly: Lance is a cheater. His fame and fortune was built on cheating. There is nothing admirable or honourable of what he did or how he achieved it. Regardless of his self-admission, he's a fraud.
"More importantly, however, is what his fraudulent success did to his competitors. How many lives (fame, fortune, economic possibilities, etc...) did he negatively impact. Similarly to the Olympics where a medal-winning athlete 'gets caught' years after the fact, the effect they had on the 4th place athlete is irreversible and often tragic. Had that person in 4th earned a Bronze, their lives might have been changed forever. Their family might have entirely different options and possibilities. Their kids might have gone to better schools or simply had a roof over their heads..." – Paid-up subscriber Jeff P.
"You state that Lance Armstrong cheated in bicycle racing. This is not true. Cheating implies he had an unfair advantage which he did not. Everyone in the sport was using illegal performance-enhancing drugs. He was taking the same drugs every one of his competitors was taking which therefore did not give him an advantage. So he was not cheating.
"If no one took these drugs (including Lance) he still would have won." – Paid-up subscriber Dennis B.
"'Jamie Dimon, Duke of Manhattan, Protector of the Banking Realm, and Defender of the Status Quo'
"Not sure if that's a formal coronation or just confined to the pages of the Digest, but please promise me you'll continue to use the full honorific for as long as you have to reference His Majesty!
"Nice work, Dan." – Paid-up subscriber Rob L.
"Thanks for the super write-up concerning PCI vs CPI. GREAT INFO!!!" – Paid-up subscriber Sam W.
"[Friday's Digest] reminded me that figures don't lie, but the liars make the figures." – Paid-up subscriber Polly R.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
May 15, 2023