Reading into the U.S.-Iran agreement... Good enough for the bull market... Mixed signals from bonds and gold... SpaceX keeps popping... Protect your portfolio from this 'looming disaster'... Last call for a SpaceX alternative...
Is this deal for real? Well, yes, but...
After months of negotiations to end the war in Iran, a new potential deal aims to bring the fighting to a close. Yesterday, Iran's Supreme National Security Council said Iran and the U.S. had finalized a memorandum of understanding ("MOU") to do just that.
A formal signing is reportedly set for Friday in Geneva, where President Donald Trump is meeting with fellow G7 leaders this week. But today, it was reported that Trump and Vice President JD Vance "e-signed" a document along with Iran's lead negotiator.
Beyond that, the details are hazy and there's room for interpretation...
The White House hasn't published the agreement's complete terms (and won't until after Friday, Trump says). But Iran's state-run media yesterday published a 14-point draft that reads like a framework to end the war and an extension of the "ceasefire" – rather than the total end of the conflict.
The Iranian-shared MOU calls for negotiations to continue for 60 days on key points. These include the big subject of Iran's nuclear ambitions, capabilities, and monitoring, plus a $300 billion reconstruction plan for Iran, paid for by the U.S. and its allies... Israel's party to the deal... and $24 billion of frozen Iranian financial assets.
U.S. officials say they won't release that money until Iran shows it's complying with this MOU, while Iran says final negotiations won't begin until it gets all the money. As Friday Digest essayist Dan Ferris wrote on the social platform X today...
So... the terms of the deal are to negotiate further?
Today's big headline overshadows that reasonable takeaway...
Trump says the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for 20% of the world's oil supply – will end. As the president wrote on Truth Social around 5:30 p.m. Eastern time yesterday...
The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!
We'll warn that it's not quite so simple...
Under the Iranian-shared agreement, the strait would reopen "within 30 days under Iranian arrangements." The strait is still reportedly laden with mines. And Iranian militants could attack U.S.-friendly ships with drones or missiles anyway, as they have occasionally during the existing "ceasefire."
In other words, don't expect global oil supplies returning to normal immediately, even if these e-signatures cement a contract.
And surprises could pop up along the way. Here's Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking on CBS's Face the Nation yesterday...
There's no trust here and we're going to verify everything.
That's not exactly grounds for a healthy working relationship. But for emotionally charged investors in a bull market, it was apparently good enough.
As Trump dropped the metaphorical green flag, a divergence between stocks and bonds...
Oil futures dropped by about 5% overnight, and the major U.S. indexes rose across the board today. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index led, up 3%, and the benchmark S&P 500 Index gained 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1% to close at a record.
Forget all the pesky details, says Mr. (Stock) Market... as has been the case for the past few months when it comes to the war and falling oil inventories around the world.
The bond market reacted less dramatically to this round of Iran news. Both short- and longer-term Treasury yields were only slightly lower, and the 30-year yield was a little higher. Next to the stock market bulls, the bond market looked like a bunch of nonbelievers.
However, gold was also up – almost 3% – which also caught my (Corey McLaughlin's) attention.
Gold's rise could be an early signal that the market is preparing for lower interest rates – an environment where gold again is treated as a strong store of value.
When investors can collect fat yields on cash, gold becomes a less attractive investment. But when cash doesn't pay much, gold's other advantages start to win out.
Rising oil prices had helped drive inflation in recent months. That led traders to expect interest-rate hikes later this year to get inflation under control.
But if oil prices stay where they are or drop further, these rate hikes may not materialize.
We expect that new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will have something to say on this subject on Wednesday, following his first policy meeting as the central bank's new head.
Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been saying this year's higher prices will be only "temporary." The extension of negotiations with Iran presents an opportunity for Warsh, in his first big chance, to do the same.
Meanwhile, in IPO-land...
SpaceX (SPCX) had its second day of trading after going public on Friday, and it was as glowing as the first. Shares gained 19.5% today, following a nearly identical gain on Friday. This gives the company a $2.5 trillion market cap.
As we said in the lead-up to the IPO, we expected SpaceX to enjoy the typical IPO "pop" – and then some – given the amount of retail interest and publicity. That has surely been the case.
If you're playing this casino game, you might even be able to keep it rolling in the short term.
SPCX options will become tradable over the next few days. And while the stock has a low percentage of publicly traded shares, it will soon join various major stock indexes, creating upward price pressure from millions of passive buyers.
(The same goes for likely soon-to-come IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic.)
But for long-term investors, it's 'buyer beware'...
SpaceX has lost $37 billion since its founding 24 years ago, and its revenue growth declined last quarter as it took on more AI spending costs. This company is absurdly overvalued, as Stansberry's Investment Advisory lead editor Whitney Tilson wrote on Friday...
SpaceX consists of three businesses, two of which are great – satellite Internet constellation Starlink and space launches. But the remaining business, xAI/X/Grok, is incinerating cash at an alarming, accelerating pace in a futile effort to keep up in the AI race.
In total, SpaceX only grew revenues 15% last quarter, down from 33% in 2025. And losses ballooned to $4.3 billion. Over the trailing 12 months ("TTM"), its total revenues came in at $19.3 billion.
So, in terms of valuation, the company is worth around 10 times TTM revenues – which I still think is extremely generous.
But at the offering price of $135, equal to a $1.77 trillion market cap, the stock would be trading at 92 times TTM revenues – making it nine times overvalued.
If the stock pops, say, 35% above that, it would be trading at 124 times TTM revenues – making it more than 12 times overvalued.
After today, that's nearly where SpaceX is trading. And it looks like, as Whitney says, SpaceX (along with OpenAI) is potentially on its way to becoming "the most overhyped, overvalued large-cap stock of all time."
That's not an insignificant claim... And it's a big enough story that Whitney has put together an urgent briefing about why these IPOs are a "looming disaster" in a new, free event that goes live at 1 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow.
These IPOs aren't just dangerous "for the people who invest in them directly, but also for millions of investors who have no intention of buying the stocks," Whitney says.
Whitney is going on camera with one of his most trusted analysts, Market Maven editor Gabe Marshank, to explain why.
What's about to happen amounts to a flagrant attempt to "harvest" more than $30 trillion sitting in retirement and investment accounts. It's set to begin next month, and so Whitney and Gabe have a series of recommendations for folks to protect their portfolios.
Click here to register now so you don't miss anything.
Finally, it's our last call on a SpaceX alternative...
Despite our warnings to stay away from the SpaceX IPO, I've always agreed that the areas of satellite communications, rockets, and AI are exciting... Even if SpaceX is overvalued, some companies in the "space race" are positioned to deliver strong long-term returns.
On this point, tonight is your last chance to get access to one such company recommended by Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet.
Dave has recommended more 1,000% stock winners than any analyst at Stansberry Research, including Nvidia (NVDA) when it traded a split-adjusted $11 per share in 2016. Now, he has identified a company he says has 10 times better technology than SpaceX.
The company could reshape the future of space-based communications. And since it's not already overhyped, Dave says that owning shares could deliver early investors 10 times their money. And a catalyst that virtually no one on Wall Street has spotted is coming this week, which could send it and a small list of other stocks soaring.
Dave's presentation will go offline at midnight Eastern tonight, so don't miss it.
New 52-week highs (as of 6/12/26): Applied Materials (AMAT), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Healthpeak Properties (DOC), iShares MSCI Spain Fund (EWP), Hawthorn Bancshares (HWBK), Linde (LIN), LXP Industrial Trust (LXP), Nucor (NUE), Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers Fund (PEY), Public Storage (PSA), Roku (ROKU), and Twist Bioscience (TWST).
In today's mailbag, feedback on a classic essay from Dan Ferris that we published on Friday, on the occasion of SpaceX's IPO... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"I did NOT buy SPCX today, BUT, SPCX is NOT GameStop!!!!" – Subscriber Dennis M.
Corey McLaughlin comment: Fair point.
One makes reusable rockets, provides working Internet to rural areas, and operates a social media platform that I keep using despite its pervasive spam bots. The other is a store in the mall where I bought a few PlayStation video games as a kid.
More seriously, I was expecting someone to write in with this take, so good on you.
Even at a ridiculous valuation, I agree...
Elon Musk's SpaceX is certainly a more wide-ranging and enterprising business than GameStop (GME) was at the time of its "meme stock" mania.
But the broader similarity holds... At GameStop's peak in 2021, the company found plenty of capital from the meme-stock crowd – after the biggest gains had already come and gone. SpaceX's IPO is doing the same thing Dan said about GameStop: feeding the ducks.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
June 15, 2026
