The Iran shock eased today... To the prepared go the spoils... These stocks jumped when the bombs fell... Defense stocks are in a golden age... Volatility is just beginning...
Today marked an easing of fears...
Since the U.S. attacked Iran over the weekend, we've had two days of stocks falling and oil prices rising.
Today, we got some relief.
Not only did the selling slow, but the major U.S. indexes were all higher, too... with the S&P 500 Index up nearly 1%. Major foreign markets stabilized, too. Meanwhile, oil prices are about the same as yesterday, along with Treasury yields.
Old reliable gold was back up almost 1% today... And even bitcoin, which has been mired in a roughly 50% drawdown from its all-time high, was around 8% higher today.
So, is that it? Is the "worst" market reaction from the conflict in Iran behind us?
We'll only know for sure with time, but we can think about a few possible outcomes today.
If you believe the U.S. government's promise to backstop new "political" insurance coverage for shippers in the Persian Gulf and offer escort services from the U.S. Navy will be plenty to keep the flow of oil, natural gas, and cargo going as it had been, then the AI-driven bull market can go on from here.
If you don't believe the oil and gas will keep flowing, expect more volatility ahead.
In the longer run, there's also the future of Iran's leadership to ponder.
Former Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei's 56-year-old son is reportedly the favorite to replace him, which isn't the best-case scenario for the White House. But that may be a short-term situation.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth suggested as much at a press briefing today, saying that Iranian leaders will soon be "looking up and seeing only U.S. and Israeli air power every minute of every day until we decide it's over, and Iran will be able to do nothing about it."
At the same time, we've read reports (and heard rumors) that the CIA is meeting with groups in Iran to potentially facilitate a public uprising to overthrow what's left of the previous regime and open up more relations with the West.
So there are still unknowns to consider. But today's market action could be a sign that bullish sentiment remains.
In the meantime, we have some winners to report...
If you've followed us for any length of time, you know our editors and analysts have recommended commodity companies as part of a diversified portfolio.
A lot of that has to do with long-term trends (like the U.S. being the world's leading producer of oil and largest exporter of liquefied natural gas) and the quality of specific businesses.
I (Corey McLaughlin) wrote to you a few weeks ago that the market has been rewarding owners of "real assets." From our February 17 issue...
Four sectors of companies making "real" things – materials, energy, industrials, and consumer staples – are up more than 15% over the past three months.
We've written about the rise in precious metals and commodities over the past year. When how to take profits (like in silver) is a primary part of the conversation, that's a good thing and indicative of a long-term trend.
The 52-week highs list we publish at the bottom of every Digest has been extensive over the past few months. In a bull market, it's easy to find stocks that go up. But in volatile, energy-supply rattling times like these, you need stocks that pass the "war test." I'm talking about well-positioned oil, gas, and other commodities stocks that can survive and thrive during these periods. And investors who are best prepared are most rewarded.
For example, after the U.S. removed Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro from power in January – raising questions about global oil supply and flows – Stansberry Research editor Brett Eversole recommended an oil and gas services position in True Wealth Systems. The pick is up 38% since then, and the recommendation remains a "buy" today.
If you follow our Commodity Supercycles team, you're well versed in oil and gas stocks... as well as nuclear, industrial, precious metals, rare earth, and renewable-energy businesses.
When we scan the model portfolio today, we see open oil and gas positions sitting on gains of 267%... 119%... 195%... 49%... and 40%. Some precious metals recommendations are doing even better, with a pair up more than 300%.
Dan Ferris also saw this coming...
In late June, following the U.S. bombing Iranian nuclear facilities last summer, Dan wrote an issue of The Ferris Report titled "Iran's Next Regime Change" where he wrote...
The U.S. is poking its nose into Iran again. As I'll explain, it's once again likely to be a bigger, costlier mess than most Americans expect. In particular, I believe the next Iranian regime-change operation – run by Israel and America – is well underway.
What's more... war in Iran is just one piece of a worrisome economic puzzle. In this month's issue, I'll walk you through the current international and domestic situation – and five portfolio holdings that can protect and grow your wealth amid the chaos.
One of Dan's picks – a play on U.S. aerospace and defense companies – is up about 35% since his June issue, and it's up roughly 120% since he first shared it with The Ferris Report subscribers in November 2024. As Dan said, "This is the golden age of defense stocks."
As missiles fly over the Persian Gulf (and still in Ukraine), executives from U.S. defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin (LMT) and RTX (RTX) – formerly Raytheon – are reportedly going to meet at the White House to discuss "speeding up weapons production," according to global news service Reuters.
Our 'quant' system was well positioned, too...
As Stansberry Research senior analyst Alan Gula wrote in yesterday's The Quant Portfolio issue, the algorithm-based offering in our Portfolio Solutions products is well prepared to handle any volatility...
There's a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the Middle East. And we're sure there will be some counterintuitive outcomes.
The beauty of our quant system is that we don't act on geopolitical hunches. We don't fear uncertainty, either.
What we do is invest in quality companies. Our algorithm finds opportunities with minimal risk and maximum return and combines them in a carefully diversified portfolio.
It doesn't know that, with chaos running rampant in the Middle East, the price of oil is rocketing higher.
But it still recommended a best-in-class exploration and production (E&P) company back in January – one that's primed to profit from higher oil prices.
That position is already up more than 20% in the model portfolio. If oil prices spike, the company will benefit, but it doesn't need higher oil prices to do well, as Alan explained...
It doesn't rely on the risk premium you see in the energy markets today. (That's the extra return producers get when things get volatile.)
It generates strong returns in "normal" times... and can maintain profitability even in a down market.
Existing Quant Portfolio subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find the full issue with Alan's analysis and recommended portfolio actions to take right here.
This is only the beginning...
As we mentioned yesterday – believe it or not – the world is still spinning. So we need to start preparing for the next surprise.
And as our Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond says, this wave of market volatility is just beginning (no matter what happens with the conflict in the Middle East) based on indicators he tracks.
But Greg doesn't suggest fleeing the market. He says you can leverage this uncertainty and potentially double your money over and over again in the weeks ahead.
That's just what he did in 2022 when Russia's invasion of Ukraine shocked the world and Greg recommended a trade that returned 116% in 34 days... and another trade that soared 100% in 17 days.
Greg also identified important inflection points in the market in 2020 (when the pandemic sunk the market before a strong rebound) and in 2023 (remember the regional banking crisis?)... And he recommended trades to profit along the way.
Since 2018, when he joined Stansberry Research after working on Wall Street as a hedge-fund trader, Greg has shown subscribers 41 chances to double their money or better and prepared them for major market moves in the market that "nobody" saw coming.
He's detailing his latest outlook in a free event on Tuesday, March 10.
Click here to learn more and register for Greg's 2026 Market Crash Summit now.
You'll hear more about how Greg's trading strategy works (despite what some skeptics might believe, it's not "voodoo science")... his thoughts on the market... and his big prediction for the rest of 2026. You'll also hear from some of Greg's subscribers. Plus, Greg will share one of his favorite trading setups on a company positioned to capitalize on the coming wave of volatility – for free.
Again, you can register here now.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/3/26): Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), CF Industries (CF), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), Freehold Royalties (FRU.TO), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), New York Times (NYT), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), SandRidge Energy (SD), Travelers (TRV), and Valero Energy (VLO).
In today's mail, more thoughts on the war against Iran, which we wrote about Monday, yesterday, and discussed in yesterday's mail... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Why is it when [President Donald] Trump is involved, all logic, common sense and experience go out the window for so many? Is it not a great thing to eliminate the biggest terrorist regime in the world? One that is still trying to revive their nuclear weapons program after threatening to destroy us and Israel numerous times?... Thank God this president has the courage to not kick the can down the road anymore...
"In April, it was easy to see for me that tariffs were being used to negotiate better trade deals by the dozens. It would end up much better. I moved cash into a brokerage account and bought the dip. Made lots of money. The Trump-hating delusion helps the average person beat the so-called experts all the time." – Subscriber Tom F.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
March 4, 2026
