Where's the deal?... Status quo in the Persian Gulf… Gas prices are up… Stocks are, too… Beware a top in semiconductors… A long-term energy play… And a 350% gain… Keeping pace with the space race…
The world keeps waiting...
The latest about the war in Iran is that negotiations keep happening behind the scenes... and few tankers are making it in or out of the Persian Gulf. After more than a month, hundreds of tankers are still waiting to get through the Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistan's prime minister and a top military official are reportedly flying all over the Middle East to mediate talks in Saudi Arabia and in Iran's capital of Tehran. But progress is slow.
The "better" news?
One part of the peace equation advanced today – Israel stopping attacks in Lebanon (where the Iranian-aligned Hezbollah group has held power). The sides today agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, fulfilling a condition for Iran.
And the original two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could reportedly be extended in pursuit of a longer-term resolution to the war.
The market is focused on the positive.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high for the first time in more than two months. It has been trading above its 200-day moving average for about two weeks now. Today, the U.S. benchmark index was a little higher again.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index also reached a new record today. That marks 12 straight trading days of gains, its longest streak since 2009.
But near-term growth risks remain... namely, energy prices keep rising. Even with stocks gaining on hopes for an end to the war in Iran, oil futures remain well above prewar levels. They were up nearly 3% today, with Brent crude around $98 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate around $94.
You've probably noticed higher prices at the gas pump, too...
I (Corey McLaughlin) have. For example, this morning at the closest gas station to our house, it cost me nearly $100 to fill up my tank... a roughly 50% jump from a month ago.
I'll deal with it and not like it... But I wondered how many other people or businesses are more stressed and spending less money on "other stuff" because of higher gas costs... or taking on more debt to simply pay for "essentials," as Nick wrote about yesterday.
Eventually, the bills will come due, both for individuals and the economy as a whole. Remember, two-thirds of America's economic activity – rightly or wrongly – is tied to U.S. consumer spending.
At the same time, though, consumer spending has more or less held up in recent years. Higher-income folks are driving overall spending, but this large piece of America's economic engine has survived all kinds of challenges. Maybe this time will be no different.
Still, there is the "next thing" to consider... As we've been writing about, the war in Iran has caused the pace of headline inflation to rise again. That means the Federal Reserve is less likely to lower interest rates, which makes borrowing more expensive.
And the longer the war goes on and/or the Strait of Hormuz is essentially blocked off, the longer it will be before energy prices – and inflation – can start to ease.
A telling reaction to early AI earnings...
Earnings season is on again... And two of the largest chip businesses in the world are telling a story of sustained demand, thanks to AI growth.
Yesterday – after sharing the interesting story of shoe company Allbirds making a "pivot" to becoming an AI business – we told you about an impressive earnings report from semiconductor-equipment maker ASML (ASML).
The company reported quarterly sales growth of 13% and raised its full-year outlook by 16% compared to 2025.
The company continues to deliver on its industry-leading position as a provider of cutting-edge semiconductor-production equipment. That's a large part of the reason our Stansberry's Investment Advisory team recommended the stock back in November 2022.
Senior analyst Alan Gula told subscribers the stock's valuation made it attractive on a "bear market shopping list." And ASML is the only company making machines that can produce the world's best semiconductor chips.
In the March issue of the Investment Advisory, our team updated subscribers on the position, which is now up nearly 250%...
The financial markets are finally aware of what we said back in 2022... ASML is a legal monopoly. As such, the company should raise its prices. To produce advanced chips, semiconductor makers have no choice but to pay whatever ASML charges (within reason).
After this big run-up over the past three and a half years, shares are no longer at a price where our team recommends opening a position with new money.
I note that, while the headlines have been focused on the war in Iran lately, AI stocks might be back in them soon...
The Allbirds story is just one anecdotal example. Today, we got another one when shares of Myseum (MYSE), an obscure social media company, gained 130% to $3.30 per share. The trigger: the company added ".AI" to the end of its name and said it would integrate AI into its platforms.
Another example of where we might be in the cycle is that people are attacking OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's house.
But we watch the trading action too and see that so far in this earnings season, good quarterly performances aren't being rewarded as much as they once were.
ASML, for example, fell almost 5% today following its strong earnings report.
And today, shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the world's largest chip manufacturer, behaved similarly.
TSM fell by 3% after releasing its own impressive quarterly financials. They included a 58% increase in first-quarter profits and a fourth straight quarter of record profits.
This isn't to say the market's AI boom is finished or that these aren't quality companies worthy of long-term portfolio holdings. But with earnings coming up over the next few weeks from "hyperscalers" Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META), don't be surprised if more stocks drop even on relatively good earnings reports.
Going a step further: Beware a top...
From a technical standpoint, semiconductors are showing "top" behavior in the near term, Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond says.
He wrote as much to subscribers yesterday. He noted telling "divergences" in the market right now... like how the Dow Jones Industrial Average and financial stocks aren't making new all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average and semiconductors have done so.
Subscribers can read Greg's full analysis here, but here's the kicker...
This is what a top looks like, my friends.
The relief rally has been strong. And we have to sit through it with two open positions, which isn't ideal. But this happens every so often. We have to gauge whether to be on the long side or short side.
With everything I've been highlighting recently, my view is quite simple... This rally is a trap and it won't last long.
Greg also recommended a bearish trade on semiconductors today.
So be careful chasing new all-time highs right now. At the very least, expect a bumpy road for a while if you are buying...
In the long run, though...
These volatile periods can prove to be great buying opportunities over longer investing horizons, especially if you can get to "the story" before the market does. That's what our Investment Advisory team did at just about the bottom of the bear market with ASML in 2022.
In a similar vein, as the war in Iran continues to develop and people suddenly wonder if we'll run out of jet fuel or when oil prices are going to go down, our Commodity Supercycles team is looking elsewhere. Their focus right now is natural gas... and the opportunity for growth of U.S. production.
As we've written about before, the U.S. is already the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas ("LNG"). And with the war in Iran – which has damaged energy infrastructure in the Middle East – the U.S. can become an even more dominant presence in the industry.
As our Commodity Supercycles team wrote in their latest monthly issue, published earlier this week...
On March 18, Israeli fighter jets struck Iran's South Pars natural gas field, which supplies most of Iran's energy and industrial needs. That initial strike damaged storage tanks, pipelines, and refining facilities at the field, cutting about 12% of Iran's natural gas production.
In retaliation, the IRGC unleashed a wave of attacks on the energy infrastructure of its neighbors that it viewed as assisting the U.S. and Israel in the war. This included Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility.
Within 12 hours, two waves of missiles slammed into the Ras Laffan Industrial City. They blew up storage tanks containing thousands of tons of LNG, resulting in a fireball that could be seen from miles away.
This facility is the biggest of its kind in the world. It's responsible for 20% of global LNG output. And while only about one-sixth of that was initially knocked out of commission, it will take three to five years to repair and bring back on line.
The longer the war drags on, the bigger the likelihood that Iran attacks Ras Laffan again, driving LNG production in the Middle East off a cliff. And already, Qatar has declared force majeure on LNG deliveries to all customers for the next five years – meaning it can't fulfill its obligations.
Our Supercycles team identified and described a company that's positioned to profit in the near term. It'll do booming business for as long as Qatar's LNG is off the market, which continues to drag on. It's also in line to get a boost from overall U.S. LNG production and transport growth in the years ahead.
Our team is targeting a roughly 80% return on investment over the next three years from this business with a double-digit dividend yield. Commodity Supercycles and Stansberry Alliance members can find the details here... And if you don't have access already, click here to learn more and get started with a subscription.
Lastly, one more example of 'getting there before the market'...
On Tuesday, when Amazon (AMZN) announced it was buying satellite firm Globalstar (GSAT) at a roughly $11 billion valuation, we knew the name sounded familiar.
That's because Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet recommended Globalstar in his model portfolio... in September 2024.
As Dave explained at the time to his subscribers, Globalstar was a major satellite provider for Apple and its "walled garden" of products, like phones, watches, and computers and everything that runs on them.
The firm is uniquely positioned by owning a satellite network that uses "L band" and "S band" antennas to reach and send signals back from space. And Apple had put these antennas in its watches in the previous two years.
As Dave shared in a note with us on Tuesday after the news of Amazon's acquisition broke, Globalstar had been beholden to Apple. While it remained an independent company, Apple literally paid all its bills: for space operations, for satellite design, for launches...
Amazon already had its own satellite company, called Leo. And its founder and chairman, Jeff Bezos, privately owns the rocket company Blue Origin. But Amazon couldn't connect to smartphones or watches. Dave explains...
This means, really, Amazon's deal is with Apple. And Amazon can scale both its rockets and its satellite building to build a mega-constellation in space.
Why did this alliance happen? Because the competition is Samsung, SpaceX, and Google. See, Google was an early, heavy backer of SpaceX, which just bought more bandwidth from Echostar, for $17 billion – using Google's cash.
Google makes the Android operating system, which runs every Samsung phone. And Apple and Samsung are the two innovators in smartphones and smart watches.
Ultimately, what Amazon is buying with Globalstar is the bandwidth on S band and L band that can speak to hundreds of millions of iPhones and Apple Watches.
Thus, the Amazon-Globalstar deal is really an extension of the smartphone wars into space. It's Apple versus Samsung again – where Google is on Samsung's side.
The battle lines are drawn... Dave was well ahead of the story, as he often is – and his subscribers are the beneficiaries. Globalstar shares are well above his recommended buy price, and they're up about 350% since his initial recommendation. Kudos to Dave on another big winner.
New 52-week highs (as of 4/15/26): Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BWX Technologies (BWXT), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), iShares Convertible Bond Fund (ICVT), Twist Bioscience (TWST), and State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor Fund (XSD).
In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's Digest, which included discussion of the concerning "buy now, pay later" trend... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Hi Nick, Thanks for bringing the Buy Now Pay Later ("BNPL") topic back to the Digest. I find this data intriguing as it provides a deeper view into consumer buying habits and capabilities that headline government data often misses...
"Thank you and the team for the insights provided in the Digest daily. It keeps this banker and economics buff well-informed." – Subscriber Jeff A.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
April 16, 2026
