A signed deal... Oil tankers are moving... Momentum favors the bulls... But there's room for 'more crazy'... Prepare for the 'Melt Up' and 'Melt Down'... A 1999 signal in a 'boring' sector...
The paperwork is signed...
Last night, before a dinner in Versailles, France with the French president and his wife, President Donald Trump signed a deal aimed at ending the immediate conflict between the U.S. and Iran in the Persian Gulf.
While Iranian and U.S. officials e-signed the 14-point memorandum of understanding on Monday, real ink is now dry on a hard copy of the agreement – signed by Trump, Iran's president, as well as the prime minister from mediator Pakistan.
And tankers are moving...
We'll spare debate about the agreement here, except to discuss the big catalyst for the market in the short term. That is, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz already appears to be picking up.
For example, earlier today, three large Saudi Arabian oil tankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of oil passed through the strait. These tankers had previously turned off their transponders, so they'd be hidden from geo-tracking services out of fear of Iranian militants shooting at them.
Vice President JD Vance told reporters at the White House in a mid-day press conference that 12 million barrels total passed through the oil chokepoint overnight, near par with pre-war daily levels. He said...
The Iranians, for the second night in a row, did not shoot at any ships in the Strait of Hormuz. So far they are honoring their end of the commitment.
The market reaction today looked like a further "war risk unwind." Remember, as various oil executives noted in recent weeks, oil supply crunches were set to become more prominent right about now, unless there were changes in the status quo in the Middle East.
Today, oil futures dropped below $80 per barrel, and energy stocks were down almost 2%, the most of any major S&P 500 sector. Meanwhile, tech was up about 3% and many names in the AI ecosystem had banner days, with the benchmark S&P 500 Index gaining 1%.
The volatility that we saw yesterday after the Federal Reserve's policy meeting decision – and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's commentary suggesting various new Fed "task forces" and changes to guidance policy – was a distant memory.
There's room for 'more crazy'...
We've noted tech stocks' blistering 50% run since late March, and mega-cap initial public offerings ("IPOs") like SpaceX and likely Anthropic and OpenAI. These are signs of froth in the market right now.
But as Stansberry Research senior analyst Brett Eversole pointed out in an issue of DailyWealth earlier this week, momentum is in the bulls' favor. "Stocks are in a strong uptrend," he explained, and "you never want to fight a bull market."
Brett showed that, based on history, with the kind of returns we've seen in U.S. stocks over the past two months, we could see a 21% return for the S&P 500 over the next year.
Not only that, but in True Wealth Systems' "Review of Market Extremes" yesterday, Brett revealed that sentiment, even around tech stocks, isn't at "all in" levels yet.
In fact, one indicator suggests the opposite... the weekly Commitment of Traders ("COT") report that shows the bets of futures traders on various indexes or assets. As Brett wrote...
It's a useful contrarian indicator... because when these folks all agree, they're usually wrong.
Right now, futures traders are betting against the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index at nearly the highest rate in history. Take a look...
Futures traders were wildly bullish on the Nasdaq 100 in late 2025. But sentiment has collapsed since then. Now, these folks are the most bearish they've ever been, outside of 2020.
This is a powerful contrarian signal. And testing the data confirms that tech stocks could keep moving higher from here.
Similar extremes have led to gains of around 8% in three months, 12% in six months, and nearly 24% a year later. There have been 11 instances like this since mid-2010.
Melt Up, Melt Down...
So while the S&P 500 just gained $11 trillion in value in only seven weeks, history shows the rally for U.S. stocks isn't over yet. As Brett wrote...
Sure, it's easy to find crazy behavior in today's market. But a few wild anecdotes don't explain the big picture. And surprising as it might be, futures traders are darn bearish on tech right now.
This market won't peak until everyone is "all in." We're not there yet... which means prices can still move much higher.
Brett says the Dow Jones Industrial Average could be headed to unthinkable records, and some individual stocks could still soar by some 500% in a "Melt Up" to come.
The thing is, these periods are inevitably followed by a "Melt Down" that can cost folks much of their big gains if they're not prepared for the potential downside.
With all this in mind, Brett has put together a new "Melt Up Master Plan" to help True Wealth subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members navigate the market. Existing subscribers can find it here.
As Brett explains in a new presentation, bull markets don't end "with fear and dread... but with total euphoria, as millions of people suddenly realize they're missing out and rush into the market."
We're not seeing that – yet. But we don't doubt that we will. And you'll want to know what to look for. As Brett says...
It's the moment everyone wants in... chasing the market up to extraordinary heights.
The difference between those people and you is timing.
The crowd rushes in at the very end, when it's already too late. But if you're watching this, it means you have a small window to position yourself before the mania spreads.
Rather than following the herd, right now you have the chance to get in ahead of it.
If you don't have access to Brett's work already or are simply interested in hearing more, click here to watch his latest presentation or read the transcript of it, and get started with a subscription to True Wealth today.
A 1999 signal that's not all bad...
Nobody wants to talk about sectors like consumer staples or industrials, much less buy shares of companies involved in those businesses. These "boring" companies are hated compared with tech stocks and flashy IPOs.
But as our colleague and DailyWealth Trader editor Chris Igou showed DailyWealth Trader subscribers on Tuesday, a 27-year low signal is flashing from one of these "boring" sectors...
We haven't seen a reading like this since late 1999... back when Amazon (AMZN) was still an online bookstore and everything was about the Internet.
The exciting technology names got all the attention back then. Folks didn't want anything to do with the market's "boring" sectors.
We're seeing a very similar situation play out right now. The hype around big AI names today resembles the narrative tech stocks had in the '90s. And once again, people are forgetting about the boring stuff.
Chris is talking about healthcare stocks. They have lagged the S&P 500 considerably over the past four years. Specifically, the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) is up only 34% since October 2022, compared with the State Street SPDR S&P 500 Fund (SPY), which is up 117% over the same period.
This is one of the worst runs for healthcare stocks in decades, with the XLV-to-SPY ratio recently falling to its lowest level since late 1999. The lower the reading, the worse healthcare stocks are performing compared with the S&P 500...
"But there's a silver lining," Chris wrote. "This poor performance won't last forever." He continued...
The XLV-to-SPY ratio typically reverses after years of struggle. That's because XLV can chop sideways for years before sparking a new rally. We saw that in the mid-2000s... twice in the 2010s... and once after the pandemic drop in 2020. And it's breaking out of a sideways range again right now.
In each of these cases, XLV broke out of a sideways range before starting a multiyear run higher.
Chris says double-digit gains could be ahead for the healthcare sector.
So while the "bright, shiny" tech stocks and IPOs will likely continue catching most folks' attention – at just the wrong time near the top of a market Melt Up – be sure to keep eyes on the "boring" stuff – like healthcare stocks – for long-term buying opportunities.
New 52-week highs (as of 6/17/26): Applied Materials (AMAT), Arm Holdings (ARM), Franklin FTSE Japan Fund (FLJP), and Hawthorn Bancshares (HWBK).
One housekeeping note before we get to the mail... The U.S. markets and our offices are closed for the Juneteenth federal holiday tomorrow. We'll pick things back up on Monday following our weekend Masters Series.
In today's mailbag, a subscriber writes in with a "cocktail party indicator" observation... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"As a paid-up subscriber for over a decade I have written in very infrequently. I was a government employee and found myself unexpectedly retired. Your services have kept me in a good financial position.
"Over the years people have discovered that I have taken over the management of my retirement assets and manage things all on my own. Recently within the past couple of weeks two people have approached me asking about how to make money in the stock market and specifically asked for stock tips unsolicited. That is an extremely rare thing to happen to me.
"I found it ironic since I have begun to raise additional cash reserves myself lately. Maybe a data point for the cocktail party indicator? It might be a good time to be careful out there!" – Subscriber E.W.
Corey McLaughlin comment: Thanks for writing in, E.W., and don't be a stranger... I don't think you're wrong. There's a general buzz about parts of the market right now that we haven't seen in a while either, and it could keep building.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
June 18, 2026
