The Smartest Money in the World Isn't Flinching Today
Today, mainstream and social media believe America is spiraling out of control...
The tensions came to a head when violence erupted on Wednesday.
First, conservative activist Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking at Utah Valley University. Then, around the same time, a teenager in Colorado shot and wounded two of his high school classmates before turning the gun on himself.
I won't lie to you. Last Wednesday was a dark day for this country. Folks are in mourning and deeply troubled by these events. And now, many are anxious about what the future holds.
It's easy to assume things will only get worse from here...
But America's "forces of stability" don't see it that way.
Specifically, one market – with a greater global influence than any other – didn't panic after this week's events. And that means we don't need to panic about what's in store.
I'm talking about the bond market...
Some of the smartest money in the world spent Thursday quietly doubling down on America. In fact, these traders were more bullish on the U.S. than they have been in months.
Let me explain...
Bond Traders Expect a Stable Future
The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond is one of the most important measures in global finance.
It tells us the bond market's consensus on U.S. interest rates in the next 10 years. When this yield is high, it means traders expect debt to be risky and expensive. And when it's low, it means the opposite.
But the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tells us more than that. It also acts as a benchmark for long-term rates around the world. It's used to calculate mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, and even national debt.
As you'd expect, the global economy is very sensitive to this measure. It's the ultimate sign of stability...
When 10-year yields are high, debtors have to spend more to pay their loans all over the world. This slows down the global economy.
But when yields are low, folks can save on their debt payments and invest elsewhere, stimulating the economy.
And, importantly, the economy hates uncertainty. That's why low yields are also a sign that the bond market expects prosperity... and calmer seas ahead.
In short, when bond investors look at the 10-year yield, they're thinking about the big picture into the long term. That's what makes them the "smart money."
Last Thursday, we saw one of the most chaotic news cycles in recent memory. But despite the panic, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time in more than five months. Take a look...
The 10-year Treasury yield hit its lowest intraday level since April. That means the bond market was making a contrarian bet that things would improve.
The smart money is reminding us to keep our views long term. It might feel like the U.S. is ablaze today...
But collectively, bond traders think more about the future than just about anyone. And despite last week's chaos, this market didn't blink. If anything, bond traders' optimism is growing.
So today, I encourage you to take your cues from this steady market. The media will certainly continue to panic this month. But that doesn't mean you have to.
We can take these tragedies seriously without assuming the worst. The "forces of stability" are bullish on America. Bond traders aren't flinching... and neither should you.
Good investing,
Sean Michael Cummings
Further Reading
If you focus on the headlines, you might think the world is nothing but disasters. But despite the negativity, investors are winning big in this market. And by keeping emotions out of your investment strategy, you can find plenty more easy wins for the rest of this year.
"The economy can't perform well if the housing market is in the dumps," Brett Eversole writes. Higher rates have stalled housing activity for the past few years. But now that mortgage rates are falling, the housing market could be coming back to life.
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