Editor's note: Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made headlines left and right over the years. And according to Ethan Goldman of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics, Musk's latest antics could be driving up the share price of Tesla stock. But as Ethan explains in this piece – adapted from a recent issue of the Chaikin PowerFeed e-letter – that doesn't mean the business deserves it.
I'm wary of Elon Musk...
The CEO of Tesla (TSLA), SpaceX, and xAI is the richest man in the world. According to Forbes, Musk's net worth is currently more than $700 billion. This puts his wealth at more than two and a half times that of the next richest man – Larry Page.
Musk has been building hype around his numerous projects in recent years. These include Optimus robots, self-driving robotaxis, and plans to build settlements on Mars. Meanwhile, his net worth has grown by more than 29 times since 2020.
But there's one thing Musk does even better than building his wealth...
Generating publicity... both positive and negative.
Musk is a polarizing figure. It doesn't matter how you personally feel about him or his projects. It also doesn't matter how well his electric-vehicle ("EV") company Tesla actually performs...
That's because, as I'll explain today, the stock's gains are no longer strictly tied to its car sales...
The stock grew by about 11% in 2025. And those same shares are up by 57% over the past five years.
Given this long-term performance, you'd likely expect that Tesla produces and sells more cars each year. But that's not the case...
Tesla Stock Dipped on News of Falling Vehicle Production
In 2023, Tesla produced more than 1.8 million vehicles. The following year, production fell by more than 72,000 vehicles – or about 4%.
This could be due to simply liquidating existing inventory. After all, Tesla delivered more vehicles than it produced in 2024.
But on January 2, Tesla released its production numbers for 2025. And they aren't pretty, folks...
Tesla produced nearly 119,000 fewer vehicles in 2025 than it did in 2024. It's a decline of roughly 7%.
And if that wasn't bad enough, the company lost its position as the world's top EV maker to Chinese rival BYD. While Tesla delivered roughly 1.6 million vehicles in 2025, BYD sold more than 2.2 million vehicles for the year.
As I said, Tesla announced those 2025 production numbers on January 2. And by the end of the trading day, the stock had fallen by less than 3%.
A daily change like that isn't unusual for Tesla. The stock often plummets in value before gaining most of it back just as fast.
As I noted earlier, Musk has an uncanny ability to sell his vision of the future to investors...
And those folks often "buy into" Musk's vision by investing in his only publicly traded company. But that doesn't mean the business is healthy enough to justify its elevated stock price.
You see, the Power Gauge still isn't completely impressed with Tesla.
The Power Gauge is a tool we use at Chaikin Analytics to analyze the markets. It gathers investment fundamentals and technicals into a simple rating of "bullish," "neutral," or "bearish."
The Power Gauge's rating balances Tesla's continued fundamental weaknesses with its general upward trend in recent years...
The Power Gauge Sees Tesla's 'Big Picture' Weakness
The Power Gauge currently gives Tesla a "neutral" overall rating...
As you can see, the Financials and Earnings categories are firmly "very bearish." But the Technicals and Experts categories are both "very bullish."
The first two categories deal with the company's long-term financial health. As I said, Tesla's sales volume has been declining. And the company's revenue growth has fallen sharply in recent years.
In short, the Power Gauge is wary of Tesla's long-term investment potential right now.
But the Technicals category paints a different picture...
Simply put, technical factors are less concerned with a company's long-term overall health. These factors guide traders looking to buy and sell stocks on a shorter time horizon.
And for Tesla, the Technicals category is currently "very bullish."
To be clear, I'm not saying you should run to trade shares of Tesla...
Remember that the stock is prone to big swings – both up and down. Over a shorter time frame, that means weighing the potential for big losses against the potential for big gains.
Either way, your portfolio doesn't care if you agree with Musk personally...
His comments can still move the share price – even if they're unrelated to Tesla's business. And as the stock's performance seems increasingly less connected with EV production and sales numbers, that means investors need to be mindful of what Musk says.
Good investing,
Ethan Goldman
Editor's note: Marc Chaikin just went public with what he calls the most dangerous move you could make with your money in the coming days. Plus, he just released his list of stocks to avoid for 2026. Half of the stocks on last year's list went on to fall by double digits – and for a limited time, you can make sure none of your favorite stocks are on it.
Further Reading
"This crash didn't have to catch investors off guard," Ethan writes. One financial-services stock recently collapsed by a staggering 44% in a single day after a massive earnings miss. But thanks to one powerful tool, you could've spotted the warning signs long before that.
"We simply can't let our emotions cloud our judgment," Marc Chaikin says. Big-name tech stocks have seen incredible growth... But not all AI stocks are created equal. And flash declines like the one we recently saw in one tech giant could become commonplace in the year ahead.
