Editor's note: The market doesn't always announce when leadership is changing. According to Ethan Goldman of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics, the clues often first show up beneath the surface. In this issue, originally published in the free Chaikin PowerFeed daily e-letter, Ethan explains how their system has spotted Wall Street's rotation away from one retail heavyweight and toward its longtime rival...
Folks, we've watched a "retail war" wage on for decades...
For years, the market recognized a clear leader in this struggle.
But in April, our system at Chaikin Analytics turned "bullish" on one of these retail giants for the first time since late 2024. The Power Gauge saw more upside ahead for the stock that has historically been in second place.
Two months later, that proved correct.
And last month, our system flashed a couple of new "bullish" signals for this stock. That alone wouldn't be too remarkable.
What's interesting is that one signal appeared on the same day that the Power Gauge issued a "sell" alert for its competitor.
I don't believe this is a coincidence.
At our firm, the Power Gauge gives us a deeper look into stocks and sectors. It gathers investment fundamentals, technicals, and more into a simple rating – ranging from "very bullish" to "very bearish."
Right now, the Power Gauge shows that the "smart money" is rotating from one stock to the other – and investors need to pay attention...
Two Ominous Signals for Walmart's Near Future
As you've probably guessed, I'm talking about Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT).
For years, Walmart maintained a lead over its main rival. But as our system sees it, that's no longer the case.
The Power Gauge gives Walmart a "neutral" rating. And while it's not downright "bearish," it's still a worse rating than Target gets.
To further indicate Walmart's share-price decline, the Power Gauge issued two separate sell alerts on May 21 – a "relative strength sell" and "relative strength breakdown." That means the stock showed weakness compared with the broad market.
That same day, Walmart's Chaikin Money Flow – which measures the smart-money activity on Wall Street – turned negative.
Here's what Walmart looks like in our system since the beginning of the year...
To be clear, the Power Gauge doesn't see Walmart as a bad stock. But it's not saying Walmart is a good stock, either.
That isn't the case with Target, though...
Today, Target gets a "bullish" rating from the Power Gauge. As I mentioned earlier, last month, our system also flashed two new "bullish" signals for the stock.
It first saw this trend on January 30, when Target got a "relative strength breakout" buy alert. Then, Target got an "oversold buy" alert on March 19. More recently, the Power Gauge sent a "relative strength buy" alert on May 19 and a "money flow buy" alert for the stock two days later on May 21.
That's a lot of technical talk. The point is, sentiment got overly bearish on Target, despite its strong performance. The smart money got interested... And that's a sign of more upside ahead.
In the chart below, you'll also see that this is part of a longer trend. Target's Chaikin Money Flow has been mostly positive throughout 2026. And the stock's relative strength versus the S&P 500 Index has mostly looked great this year. Take a look...
Now, things could change again in the next few months. But that's exactly why I pay attention to these signals.
Put simply, the Power Gauge alerted us to a change in this long-running retail war. And if you had bought Target shares after its first alert in January, you'd be up 21% today... nearly three times higher than Walmart's 8% gain this year.
Now, I'm not saying that this is the beginning of the end for Walmart. The discount-retailer juggernaut isn't going to disappear anytime soon... not when 90% of the country's population lives within 10 miles of a Walmart store.
And the Power Gauge's "neutral" rating reinforces that Walmart's weakness is temporary. It could easily bounce back.
So, keep an eye on these two companies as the competition drags on. Any shift could present investors with a good opportunity to buy (or sell) either stock.
But for now, we should expect more potential gains ahead for Target.
Good investing,
Ethan Goldman
Editor's note: Despite constant volatility, global tension, and stubborn inflation, the market keeps pushing to new highs. And Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin says that kind of disconnect can create opportunity – if you know where to look. That's why he's sharing a strategy built to track where the "smart money" on Wall Street is quietly moving... before those shifts show up in stock prices.
Further Reading
Gold was one of the best investments during the market's recent turmoil. But as stocks recover and institutional money rotates elsewhere, some of the strongest opportunities today are emerging in industries with far more momentum.
"No matter who 'wins' the title of most overhyped, overvalued large-cap stock of all time, both these IPOs are a disaster," Whitney Tilson writes. While investors are treating two looming IPOs like can't-miss opportunities, history shows that paying fantasy valuations rarely ends well.
