Why We're Feeling Optimistic in 2026

Editor's note: If the market is soaring, is your instinct to prepare for an impending crash? According to Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic in 2026. In this issue – adapted from the January 7 edition of the free Health & Wealth Bulletin daily e-letter – Doc explains why even the most die-hard contrarian should think twice about betting against Wall Street's positive outlook.

Usually when everyone on Wall Street agrees on something, we rush to do the exact opposite.

That's the contrarian mindset Stansberry Research was founded on.

And that's because Wall Street has a history of going "all in" at exactly the wrong time...

Consider the post-COVID boom... Big money managers were obsessed with disruptive and innovative tech companies – regardless of profits. The poster child of this was Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK), which everyone loved right up until it crashed... dropping 76% between late 2021 and the end of 2022.

This is just one recent example. Everyone knows about Wall Street pouring money into dot-com stocks and the housing market before the crashes in 2000 and 2008.

Still, as contrarians, we must admit one thing – if begrudgingly...

Betting against Wall Street's outlook for 2026 is probably not the best strategy.

You see, Wall Street is expecting stocks to rise this year. But as I'll explain, as much as we'd like to be contrary... this is a good time to be optimistic.

Wall Street Expects a Strong Year for Stocks

Oppenheimer Asset Management recently predicted the S&P 500 Index will reach 8,100 by the end of 2026. This was the highest forecast among major Wall Street brokerages.

To hit that level, the benchmark stock index would need to rise roughly 18% in total this year. And after the roughly 16% gain the index posted in 2025, that would make 2026 the fourth year in a row that the S&P 500 advanced by double digits.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank expects the index to finish the year at 8,000...

And Bank of America has the least optimistic view, with a target of 7,100. Still, this would be an annual gain of around 4%.

As you can see below, all the major banks are calling for stocks to rise in 2026...

It's often easy for Wall Street to miss opportunities... or ignore risks.

In this case, though, I see a clear path toward another strong year for stocks.

The economy is showing signs of weakness, in particular with rising unemployment. But paradoxically, that can be good news for stocks... Bad news typically leads to lower interest rates, which are good for stock prices.

Still, even with signs of weakness, the betting market is confident we won't see a recession in 2026. Take a look...

Most important for stock returns, we're not seeing the euphoria we'd expect near a peak. And several other indicators suggest many people are scared... not greedy or euphoric.

As you can see in the chart below, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is currently near its all-time low from back in 2022...

The CNN Fear & Greed Index has moved out of "fear" territory. But while it's reading "greed" today, it's still well below previous highs. That's another good sign that we haven't yet reached euphoric levels. Take a look...

Results from the American Association of Individual Investors ("AAII") Investor Sentiment Survey still show that folks aren't too bullish on the stock market... with less than half of folks expecting the market to go up...

You see, bull markets don't die with a whimper.

Think about your own interactions. Are your friends and family dominating the dinner table or the monthly cocktail party with conversations about stocks?

That's not our experience. People will strike up a conversation with me about AI stocks... But I'm not getting phone calls from long-lost friends who want to take out loans to invest in my next stock pick.

When that does happen, it'll signal that stocks are living on borrowed time. I've seen it happen time and time again at previous market tops.

Of course, the story could change later this year. I don't have a crystal ball.

But from what we're seeing right now, the average investor isn't blindly giddy about stocks... which means this bull market hasn't reached its peak yet. So it wouldn't surprise me to see stocks post a positive return this year.

Here's to our health, wealth, and a great retirement,

Dr. David Eifrig

Editor's note: After a crazy start to 2026, we're unveiling our most important idea of the year. This move could double your entire portfolio – even if we see another sell-off or full-blown bear market... And it's powered by a strategy that has already returned a total of 185% since 2017. Plus, for a limited time, you can learn our top experts' No. 1 stock ideas for 2026.