A Bear Market Warning From Your Plate
The "Appetizer Index" says it's time to worry...
Diners at restaurants spent 20% more on appetizers than this time last year, according to food-service supply-chain tracker Buyers Edge Platform. And sales of one of America's favorite starters – mozzarella sticks – are up 36%.
Unfortunately for the restaurant industry, this spending came at the expense of entrees.
Folks haven't given up eating out entirely. But when they sit down at the table, they're stretching their budgets by ordering only the appetizers.
While this isn't a sign that we're on the immediate brink of a recession, it's part of a growing list of worrying signs...
As Jeff Havenstein shared on Wednesday, the Department of Labor just reported that the unemployment rate hit 4.6% in November – the highest in four years. And retail sales in October remained flat, despite economists expecting a small rise for pre-holiday spending.
Consumers' wallets are increasingly under strain. They're tightening their budgets, spending less on essentials by choosing generic brands over pricier name brands. A recent report from consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal Global found that around three-quarters of American households "often" or "very" often buy store-brand items now, with around 49% saying they're more likely to switch to lower-cost brands at the grocery store.
So, why aren't markets also feeling the strain?
Stocks are up around 15% this year. They've more than recovered from their April lows, when the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the increased risk of a recession pushed stocks into bear market territory. (This happens when the market falls 20% or more from its peak.)
But a lot of that gain has been driven by investors pouring into high-flying Big Tech stocks with maximum AI exposure. These are companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), and Microsoft (MSFT), which make up a huge weight in the S&P 500 Index.
Last month, I wrote that we're not exactly at the peak of an AI bubble yet. But things are looking frothy right now.
And I'm not the only one worried...
My friend Marc Chaikin, founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics, is calling 2026 the "Year of the Bear."
Marc is a 50-year market veteran who called the crashes in 2020 and 2022 weeks before they occurred. And now, he says 2026 could usher in the next great bear market... with an average market drop of 20%.
And it won't be your typical bear market. This time, you'll need different tools and strategies to protect your wealth.
On Tuesday, he went on camera to reveal...
- How to time when the next bear market will hit
- The best way to prepare to maximize gains and minimize losses
- A brand-new way to invest that could hand you five lightning-fast gains every month in 2026
If you missed Marc's presentation, don't worry – you can catch up on all the details here.
Now, let's get to this week's Q&A... And as always, keep sending your comments, questions, and topic suggestions to feedback@healthandwealthbulletin.com. My team and I read every e-mail.
Your Credit Card Dies With You
Q: Doc, in your financial checklist you didn't mention shared accounts. Am I set if my husband is a joint owner on all our bank accounts/credit cards/etc.? – I.H.
A: Thanks for being a Retirement Millionaire subscriber, I.H. (In last week's issue, I shared a year-end financial checklist, including getting one's affairs in order ahead of time.)
It depends on the account. If it's a joint banking or investment account (where you and your spouse are both owners), the surviving spouse would most likely be allowed to maintain the account due to rights of survivorship.
But if you're the owner of the account and your surviving spouse is the beneficiary, your spouse would have to claim the money from the bank. In either case, your spouse will have to let the bank know you died, but the account won't need to go through probate.
Credit cards are different. Most credit-card accounts have a single owner. Others may appear on the account, but they're simply authorized users, not owners. For instance, your spouse might own the account and add you on as a user.
For credit purposes, it makes sense. The liability for payment rests with the owner only. This means only the owner is legally responsible for paying the bill, regardless of the authorized user's spending.
Unfortunately, this also means that once the credit-card company learns of the owner's death, it closes the account, and any authorized users lose access.
What's more, you can't transfer ownership of credit cards, meaning the surviving spouse can't take over the account upon the owner's death.
So in your case, I.H., check that your bank accounts and credit cards are actually set up with joint owners. It's likely that one of you is just an authorized user on the credit card. If that's the case, make sure you each have a card through your very own account (not just a card with your name printed on it) in case of emergency.
What We're Reading...
- Did you miss it? Celebrating the economic slowdown.
- Something different: The truth about why gout is on the rise.
Here's to our health, wealth, and a great retirement,
Dr. David Eifrig and the Health & Wealth Bulletin Research Team
December 19, 2025