Grab This Elite Business Before Its Stock Recovers
Every so often, the market hands investors a gift. And they're afraid to unwrap it.
When a world-class business goes on sale, most folks grow suspicious. They convince themselves there must be a catch, and they sit on the sidelines.
A few years later, they look back and kick themselves for missing an obvious setup. They promise they won't hesitate next time.
That is, until the next gift arrives.
And it always comes again. Even the greatest companies – elite businesses that compound for decades – sometimes hit uncomfortable pullbacks.
In 2018, for example, Walmart (WMT) dropped 25%. And starting later that year, Apple (AAPL) crashed nearly 40%.
Both were incredible buying opportunities. Both look obvious today.
So why is pulling the trigger so hard in real time?
Well, this hesitation can be best explained by a cognitive bias known as hyperbolic discounting.
Imagine someone offered you a choice... You can receive $2,000 today or $2,200 two months from now.
Which would you take?
Ask most folks, and they'd grab the $2,000 today. The immediate reward feels tangible, safe, and satisfying. The future reward, even though it's only two months out, feels distant and uncertain.
Now, suppose that same person offered you $2,000 in 12 months or $2,200 in 14 months.
Suddenly, waiting those extra two months becomes easy. You gladly choose to wait for the additional $200. After all, what's the difference between 12 months and 14 months?
Notice that in both scenarios, the extra reward ($200) and the time delay (two months) are identical. Yet our brains react completely differently depending on how close the choice is to the present.
This mental paradox reveals our tendency to place far more weight on what's happening today than on what might happen tomorrow.
The human mind struggles to evaluate time on a straight line. Our brains evolved in an environment where immediate survival was everything. Catching dinner today mattered infinitely more than planning for a year down the road.
Walmart, for example, was in bear market territory back in 2018 because of fears over Amazon stealing market share. Investors panicked over how much Walmart would have to spend to compete online, speculating it would destroy profit margins. Take a look...
Those worries were completely overblown. The underlying business remained formidable. Walmart held huge purchasing power, a vast store network, and a trusted brand.
Plus, investors failed to realize that Walmart's massive footprint was actually a secret weapon. Its network of retail stores created a ready-made fulfillment system that Amazon would have to spend tens of billions of dollars to replicate. Online sales quickly became a major growth driver for the company.
Walmart has returned more than 350% since its 2018 lows, even counting its latest drawdown. That "big" drop barely registers.
There's also Apple, which fell nearly 40% from late 2018 into early 2019.
The company cut revenue guidance, mainly because of a brief slowdown in China. Analysts also worried that the iPhone had become too expensive and that smartphone growth was dead. So the market panicked and sold off the stock...
But Apple was still Apple. Fast-forward to today, and almost everyone is still glued to their iPhones.
At the end of 2018, roughly 900 million people around the world had iPhones. Those customers created recurring revenue opportunities through the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, and other services... even when they weren't replacing their handsets. Apple's services revenue now brings in more than $100 billion a year.
And Apple has returned more than 900% since its 2019 lows, making that 39% drop look like nothing...
Even the best stocks experience significant drawdowns. It's your job to buy them when that happens.
Instead of stepping back and looking at each company through a long-term telescope, though, hyperbolic discounting forces investors to look through a short-term microscope.
Your brain fixates entirely on the immediate present...
What if the stock drops another 10% next week?
The next two quarters of earnings are going to be ugly. I'll just wait until things calm down.
When a great company hits a rough patch, investors struggle to separate temporary setbacks from permanent damage. Slowing sales, disappointing earnings, or a brief shift in consumer spending quickly overshadow years of market dominance. Suddenly, a business that once seemed untouchable is treated as if its best days are behind it.
But some of the market's most attractive opportunities emerge precisely when investors lose sight of the long term.
Now, not every struggling blue chip is automatically a bargain. Sometimes a sell-off reflects genuine, lasting deterioration. The key is distinguishing between a business whose competitive edge is eroding and one that has simply fallen out of favor for a few quarters.
That distinction brings us to a blue-chip stock that's currently experiencing one of its largest drawdowns in recent memory...
We're talking about a legendary compounder that has delivered an average annual return of 14.3% since 1980.
The company is working through some short-term issues. And investors have lost sight of its long-term competitive advantages.
But this stock is a screaming buy at today's prices. Don't let hyperbolic discounting stop you from taking advantage of this rare opportunity to build your long-term wealth.
Current Retirement Millionaire subscribers can read our buy recommendation here.
If you aren't yet a Retirement Millionaire subscriber but would like to learn more, click here.
What We're Reading...
- Something different: Toulouse to Ho Chi Minh City: Five fast-rising cities that should be on travelers' radars right now.
Here's to our health, wealth, and a great retirement,
Dr. David Eifrig and the Health & Wealth Bulletin Research Team
October 21, 2026