One Major Index Could See Gains of 13% in 2026
Last week, Doc Eifrig told you that he wouldn't be surprised if the S&P 500 Index finished 2026 with a double-digit gain...
He believes a fourth consecutive year of strong growth is possible because investors aren't currently showing signs of excess greed in the market. And as you know, bull markets don't die on a whimper.
I agree with Doc.
But today, I want to talk about the outlook for a different index...
It's an index that's vital to the U.S. economy. Wall Street follows it closely. And according to the data, it has an 88% chance of closing for gains by the end of this year.
In fact, history says we should expect gains of around 13%.
Let's get into it...
When we talk about "the market," we're generally referring to the S&P 500. As the name suggests, the S&P 500 tracks the 500 largest U.S.-listed stocks. It's a broad index, covering nearly 80% of the U.S. stock market's value.
But you'll also frequently hear the financial media discussing the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Unlike the S&P 500, the Dow is more selective...
It houses only 30 U.S.-listed stocks. These stocks are chosen by a committee of experts... and aren't based on any mathematical formulas. Instead, these are the 30 blue chips believed to best represent the backbone of the American economy.
To be considered, a company usually must be a dominant, established leader in its industry... These are well-known names like Coca-Cola (KO), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), Chevron (CVX), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM). Overall, the index tends to lean more toward industrial stocks.
People care about the Dow's outlook because it offers insight into what's ahead for the U.S. economy as a whole.
And after a blistering ending to 2025, the index is telling us to expect a strong showing in 2026...
The Dow finished 2025 up 13%. That's nothing to sneeze at. But what's more important is that the index finished 2025 with eight consecutive months of gains.
This is a feat the Dow has achieved only eight other times since 1900. The most recent one came in 2017. Take a look...
Here's why this matters... In each of those cases, the Dow rose over the next six months. And on all but one occasion (1961), the index was still up one year later. Check it out...
As you can see, following eight months of consecutive gains, the Dow rose an average of 9% in six months and about 13% in a year. Now, a similar situation could soon unfold.
Simply put, history is on our side. It's telling us the Dow should be headed for gains in 2026. So stay the course and keep your money in the market.
With that said, you still need to be selective about where you put that money.
Thankfully, Marc Chaikin – the founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics and a 50-year market veteran – can help you with this...
Just last week, Marc released his brand-new "Top 10" and "Bottom 10" stock lists for 2026... along with a battle plan for the year ahead. Click here for all the details (and two free stock recommendations).
Marc's presentation will be taken down tonight. So check it out if you haven't already.
What We're Reading...
- The S&P 500 and Dow climb to closing records as traders look past Federal Reserve independence risk.
- Something different: I spent months trying to find out if boosting my gut health could help me age better.
Here's to our health, wealth, and a great retirement,
Jeff Havenstein
January 14, 2026