What to Expect for Stocks in 2026
Usually when everyone on Wall Street agrees on something, we rush to do the exact opposite.
That's the contrarian mindset Stansberry Research was founded on.
And that's because Wall Street has a history of going "all in" at exactly the wrong time...
Consider the post-COVID boom. Big money managers were obsessed with disruptive and innovative tech companies – regardless of profits. The poster child of this was Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK), which everyone loved right up until it crashed... dropping 76% between late 2021 and the end of 2022.
This is just one recent example. Everyone knows about Wall Street pouring money into dot-com stocks and the housing market before the crashes in 2000 and 2008.
Still, as contrarians, we must admit one thing – if begrudgingly...
Betting against Wall Street's outlook for 2026 is probably not the best strategy.
You see, Wall Street is expecting stocks to rise this year.
But as we'll explain, as much as we'd like to be contrary... we're feeling optimistic, too.
Oppenheimer Asset Management recently predicted the S&P 500 Index will reach 8,100 by the end of 2026. This was the highest forecast among major Wall Street brokerages.
To hit that level, the benchmark stock index would need to rise roughly 17% over the next year. And after the roughly 16% gain the index posted in 2025, that would make 2026 the fourth year in a row that the S&P 500 advanced by double digits.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank expects the index to finish the year at 8,000...
And Bank of America has the least optimistic view, with a target of 7,100. Still, this would be an annual gain of around 2%.
As you can see below, all the major banks are calling for stocks to rise in 2026...
It's often easy for us to see what opportunity Wall Street is missing... or what risk it's ignoring. In this case, though, we see a clear path toward another strong year for stocks.
The economy is showing signs of weakness, in particular with rising unemployment. But paradoxically, that can be good news for stocks. Our senior analyst Jeff Havenstein talked about this last month... Bad news typically leads to lower interest rates, which are good for stock prices.
Still, even with signs of weakness, the betting market is confident we won't see a recession in 2026. Take a look...
Most importantly for stock returns, we're not seeing the euphoria we'd expect near a peak. And several other indicators suggest many people are scared... not greedy or euphoric.
As you can see in the chart below, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is currently near its all-time low from back in 2022...
The CNN Fear & Greed Index has moved out of "fear" territory. But it's still only reading "neutral" and is well below previous highs. That's another good sign that we haven't yet reached euphoric levels. Take a look...
Results from the American Association of Individual Investors ("AAII") Investor Sentiment Survey still show that folks aren't too bullish on the stock market... with less than half of folks expecting the market to go up...
We've talked about this before... Bull markets don't die with a whimper.
Think about your own interactions. Are your friends and family dominating the dinner table or the monthly cocktail party with conversations about stocks?
That's not our experience. People will strike up a conversation with me about AI stocks... But I'm not getting phone calls from long-lost friends who want to take out loans to invest in my next stock pick.
When that does happen, it'll signal that stocks are living on borrowed time. I've seen it happen time and time again at previous market tops.
Of course, things could change later this year. I have no crystal ball. I don't know what stocks will do for the rest of 2026.
But from what we're seeing right now, the average investor isn't blindly giddy about stocks... which means this bull market hasn't reached its peak yet. So it wouldn't surprise me to see stocks post a positive return this year.
However, this doesn't mean there won't be volatility...
The market still faces fears about an AI bubble and drama surrounding the midterm elections. Plus, even though the Federal Reserve will likely continue cutting rates this year, its members are divided on how far those cuts should go. All of that spells turbulence.
My friend Marc Chaikin – a man with more than 50 years of market experience – agrees. Marc is calling for heightened volatility this year and urging investors to reposition their money soon.
He'll give his perspective on the market and share exactly how you can protect your wealth in an online event tomorrow at 10 a.m. Eastern time.
Plus, just for tuning in, you'll hear about one stock Marc recommends you buy today and one stock he thinks you should stay away from.
This event is free to attend, but you must sign up ahead of time. Click here for the details.
What We're Reading...
- In case you missed it... Happy Birthday, Bull Market... And Here's to a Couple More.
- Something different: What former President Nicolás Maduro's arrest means for energy markets and who controls Venezuela's oil now.
Here's to our health, wealth, and a great retirement,
Dr. David Eifrig and the Health & Wealth Bulletin Research Team
January 7, 2026