Every major transformation follows the same three-step pattern. And today, it's telling us the smartphone has run out of time...

Limits to the truce... High(er) inflation is coming back... What the airlines are doing about it... How high could oil go?... 'The skunk at the party'... What to do about it...

It's the middle of the night when a deep ache in your calf jolts you awake...

1) In yesterday's e-mail, I wrote about the ceasefire deal in the Middle East and concluded: I think this will play out similarly to what happened a year ago when Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariff plan. After stocks plunged, Trump backed away from a trade war and stocks rallied strongly for more than six months. In his latest Week in Charts, Charlie Bilello shares some interesting data that reinforce my view... Exactly one year ago yesterday, the S&P 500 Index concluded its 12th-worst four-day decline since 1950, crashing 12.1%. In the 14 similar cases Bilello tracked, the S&P 500 […]

Since financial assets are claims on future money, their prices are all affected by interest rates...

Markets cheer a 'ceasefire' in Iran... The complicating factors... The trouble with 'human intervention'... A long-term energy investing opportunity, no matter what happens next... The power of 'true diversification'...

You know things that almost no one else does...

1) In yesterday's e-mail, I analyzed my college buddy Bill Ackman's proposal to merge Universal Music Group ("UMG") with his shell company, Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, in a nearly $65 billion deal. You can read his letter to UMG's board here and watch his presentation and Q&A here. And here's a good summary of the deal by MarketBeat. The stock – trading under the ticker UMG on the Amsterdam index – closed at around 19 euros yesterday. That's well below where it would be if the deal goes through, so investors are clearly skeptical that it will happen. I'm more […]

When a tool perfectly solves yesterday's problem, it's probably about to become irrelevant...

While everyone's waiting on the next war move... Introducing the 'Shadow Data Indicator'... More volatility is a good bet... The latest in America's endless inflation story...