A Rush for the Exits Has Begun
Volatility reigns... The week Greg Diamond says stocks will top... The latest about Iran and oil... Rushing for the exits in private equity... The next credit crisis may be starting... An opportunity, eventually...
First up today, in case you missed it...
This morning, Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond went live in his 2026 Market Crash Summit. In this event, Greg revealed what could be the best way to take advantage of the extreme volatility we're seeing in the market right now...
"The future is but a repetition of the past," Greg said. He was quoting the man who, 118 years ago, developed a controversial trading strategy that has proved prescient and profitable time and time again.
Greg laid out the evidence for this strategy – one he has used with subscribers for years now. Viewers also heard why Greg believes history is again repeating itself right now... and not in a good kind of way. Well, at least not good for the unprepared...
The volatility we're seeing from the war in Iran? Greg says it's just the beginning of a wild period for stocks... He shared the exact week in the months ahead that he says the market will "top."
But the good news? Greg also revealed a little-known way to leverage big market moves in stocks, oil, gold, and silver... He also shared his favorite trade for what lies ahead, one that he has traded before with a 100% win rate and an average gain of around 50%.
Be sure to check out the full event before it goes offline soon. If you missed it, click here to watch a replay now.
The latest about the war in Iran...
Oil-driven volatility continued today as the market reacted to reports from the Middle East.
First comes some "less bad" news for oil prices, in the short term at least. Representatives from the Group of Seven ("G7") nations met for a second straight day. And while they again decided not to tap global strategic oil reserves, they did move the ball forward somewhat...
The G7, which includes the U.S., kicked the issue over to the International Energy Agency ("IEA"). The IEA is an energy-policy association of 31 nations that account for about 75% of global oil demand. The G7 asked it to assess the situation and needs, and the IEA members were to meet later in the day.
If they did, no word came out of the meetings before the markets closed for the day...
Either the G7 countries really want more information before acting, or the IEA is working out details, or everyone is waiting to see if using oil reserves will be necessary... or all of it.
It's hard to know for sure, but signs point to global oil reserves helping stabilize supply and prices. At least the market is anticipating just that... or that the war actually may be close to finished, as President Donald Trump said was the case yesterday.
As we go to press, oil prices have fallen roughly 8% in the past 24 hours, with West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") trading around $87 per barrel and Brent crude, the international benchmark, around $91.
And energy stocks, which we alerted you yesterday could be due for a drawdown given extremely "overbought" conditions, were down more than 1%, the most of any major S&P 500 Index sector, and the U.S. benchmark index finished slightly lower on the day.
Folks still want their money out of private equity and credit...
We first covered this story in the February 19 Digest, when private-equity company Blue Owl Capital (OWL) was "permanently halting redemptions" from one of its private-credit funds. As we wrote at the time...
"Permanently halting redemptions" is code for not getting your cash back. And the "you" in this case is retail investors who hopped aboard the private-equity investing buzz via Blue Owl's first private retail debt fund that launched in September 2025.
That trend has not gone away in the past few weeks. BlackRock (BLK), the world's largest asset manager, similarly limited redemptions from its HPS Corporate Lending Fund after too many investors asked for their money back. The redemption requests came to 9% of shares.
BlackRock limited the redemptions to 5%, barely half that requested volume. And Blue Owl and now BlackRock are just two examples.
As Illiquid Insights shared on the social platform X yesterday, redemption requests have soared in the past six months for private equity and credit funds – or non-traded business development companies ("BDCs")...
This jump in redemption requests shows a lot of fear in private credit and private equity right now.
What this means for the broader credit market...
The concerns about private credit are starting to trickle into the broader credit market.
High-yield credit spreads, the difference between the average yield on high-yield bonds and the yield of similar-duration "risk free" U.S. Treasurys, have risen steadily off their lows in January.
Remember, low spreads indicate complacency from investors. It means they see corporate bonds as so safe, they'll own them with yields that are only slightly better than a risk-free Treasury bond. Today, at a level of 319 basis points, high-yield credit spreads hit a four-month high.
These spreads are still low historically, but they're trending higher.
And the rush for the exits in private credit could soon flow over into the high-yield bond market. We checked in with our colleague and Stansberry's Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase this morning, and he wrote in a private note...
These private credit loans are considered risky loans. The entire high-yield credit market is based on confidence. Because private credit is so illiquid, when that confidence starts to evaporate, the entire foundation can collapse fast.
The high-yield spread is still below the 550-basis-point level that Mike believes will trigger a credit crisis. But based on the recent move in credit spreads, credit investors are starting to wake up to the deeper risks in the markets.
And the more pressure investors put on these private-credit funds, the more fear will trickle into the broader credit market.
At some point, credit markets will reach their breaking point. We're not there – yet. But this is something we've got our eye on to be the catalyst for the next market leg lower.
The better news? There is opportunity 'on the other side'...
As redemption requests surge, private-credit firms will either have to try and sell their illiquid assets or limit the withdrawals from investors. For now, they've done the latter. But the concerns are creating opportunities for folks with capital to put to work.
One legendary investor is getting started...
Saba Capital's Boaz Weinstein has begun buying up stakes in certain private-credit funds at steep discounts. (Stansberry's Investment Advisory subscribers can read more about Weinstein's history in the August 2023 issue.)
Last week, Saba Capital launched a tender offer (together with Cox Capital Partners) to buy about 7% of Blue Owl's OBDC II fund. But folks who want out won't get their full money back... Saba's offer represented a 35% discount to the value of the shares.
Here's how Saba described the redemption issues in the press release...
OBDC II shareholders face increased liquidity risk, as evidenced by the fund's terminated merger, which could have forced investors to take losses of approximately 20% and would have restricted shareholders from redeeming until the deal closed.
Essentially, Weinstein and Saba Capital are offering investors an "out" in a classic contrarian trade. Plenty of folks are asking for their money back out of these private-credit funds.
Saba will give them the exit they're looking for. And it's buying up stakes in the funds that will last beyond the noise. As Weinstein said in an interview with CNBC's Inside Alts this week...
We're long the stocks of these companies on the idea that, in case this is overdone, these are the guys that are going to be the winners at the end, when the smoke clears and their stocks may represent good value.
Similarly, as Mike DiBiase wrote back in an October special report for Credit Opportunities subscribers, he has been expecting a "fire sale" in the bond market. As pressure builds in the credit market, big investors can be forced to sell assets, too.
"[Corporate bond] prices can fall fast and hard," Mike wrote.
When this happens, many investors will unload good investments just to get out of the sector. That can lead to solid assets trading at "bargain-bin prices."
These are exactly the kind of investments Mike and his analyst Bill McGilton will be recommending to Credit Opportunities subscribers when the next credit crisis reaches a fever pitch. When everyone else is panicking, they'll be alerting subscribers to buy.
In the meantime, we'll keep tracking the private-equity story and watch for signs of growing weakness in the credit market.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/9/26): BP (BP), Century Aluminum (CENX), Chord Energy (CHRD), EOG Resources (EOG), EQT (EQT), Starbucks (SBUX), and Texas Pacific Land (TPL).
In today's mailbag, we heard from a few people who missed Greg Diamond's Market Crash Summit this morning and are wondering if a replay is available. Good news... Yes, you can watch the event in full here at your convenience.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
March 10, 2026