Editor's note: The holidays are for spending time with friends and family...

But according to Vic Lederman – publisher for our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics – there's a major shift taking place right now that threatens to disrupt this joyful season.

In today's Masters Series, originally from the December 3 issue of the Chaikin PowerFeed daily e-letter, Vic talks about a concerning trend he sees weighing on investors today...

A Troubling Trend Threatens the Holidays This Year

By Vic Lederman, publisher, Chaikin Analytics

The "K-shaped economy" is grabbing a deeper hold on Americans...

Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin discussed this phenomenon yesterday. It refers to how some folks are doing great in the current economy... but many others are struggling.

In his essay, Marc noted that the top 10% of earners in the country account for more than 49% of all consumer spending.

Put simply, there's a growing gap between the highest and lowest earners in our country.

And a weakening job market isn't helping the situation.

Professional-services giant KPMG recently published a report showing this trend...

The firm asked about 2,000 Americans questions related to their personal finances. One of those was about change in household incomes. Specifically, KPMG asked if their income had increased or decreased since 2024.

Out of the respondents, 31% of the households making less than $50,000 per year reported that their income "increased slightly." And only 4% of households in that income group said their income "increased significantly."

On the other hand, 33% of the households making less than $50,000 per year said their income "slightly decreased." And 29% of those households said that their income "decreased significantly."

All this is a big contrast to households making more than $200,000 per year...

According to the report, a whopping 64% of those households reported a slight increase in income. And 16% said that their income "increased significantly."

At the same time, only 16% of those top earners reported any form of decrease.

But that's not all...

You see, 58% of KPMG's survey respondents said that their increased incomes came from a promotion or new job.

But on the other hand, 38% of respondents who saw their incomes decrease attributed it to losing a job.

Meanwhile, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") adds to the concerns...

The unemployment rate has slowly climbed from a post-pandemic low in 2023. Early that year, it came in at 3.4%.

Fast-forward to November of this year, and the unemployment rate has increased to 4.6%. This marks the highest unemployment rate since September 2021.

Folks, we can see the results of a softening labor market and developing K-shaped economy...

The same KPMG report I discussed earlier showed that consumers are getting increasingly selective with their spending.

Now, according to the survey results, overall year-over-year monthly spending this winter and holiday season is expected to rise for the survey's four "essential categories." Those include categories for "groceries" and "automotive."

Meanwhile, expected monthly spending is expected to decline for almost all of the 12 "discretionary" categories.

I also noticed something jarring with two of those categories in particular...

Last year, when KPMG held this same survey on seasonal spending expectations, folks anticipated spending 6% more per month for two categories – "restaurants" and "travel/vacations."

These categories saw the biggest drops in 2025. According to this year's report, Americans intend to spend 3% less of their monthly income at restaurants... and 6% less on travel and vacations.

As Marc noted in yesterday's essay, the Power Gauge has picked up on this trend...

Right now, the Power Gauge says only 10% of the stocks in the Hotels, Restaurants, and Leisure industry are in "bullish" territory.

Put simply, this corner of the market is struggling.

It's clear that a K-shaped economy is here. And this time of year, Americans don't plan on spending like they used to.

As I said, some stocks in the Hotels, Restaurants, and Leisure industry are still "bullish" or better. But overall, we could see a lot of pain ahead for many companies in this space.

At Chaikin Analytics, we'll continue to keep an eye on this trend. And of course, when it comes to investing, we'll keep using the Power Gauge as our guiding light through it all.

Good investing,

Vic Lederman

Editor's note: The Power Gauge isn't the only guiding light you can use today...

Marc Chaikin recently teamed up with Keith Kaplan – CEO of our corporate affiliate TradeSmith – to debut a never-before-seen software collaboration that could show you when a stock is headed for a brutal, swift sell-off... while also handing you potential triple-digit gains.

It's a completely different investing approach designed specifically for 2026 (no one has ever seen this before). Click here now to be among the first to access it.