Doc's Plan to Escape the 'Great Devaluation'
About that jobs report... The irony of the situation... Rate cuts are now expected... An opening at the Federal Reserve... Signs point here... Save yourself from the 'Great Devaluation'... Dr. David 'Doc' Eifrig's blueprint to protect and grow your wealth...
The jobs report that shook Washington (and the market)...
Last week, we warned you to prepare for some volatility around Friday's jobs report.
But we got more than we bargained for...
Shortly after the July "nonfarm payrolls" report was released, President Donald Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.
Now, as the head of the executive branch, Trump has the authority to fire McEntarfer. But the timing caused a stir among market and political observers. For critics, the idea was basically that Trump didn't like the numbers, so he fired the person responsible for them.
You see, the report showed that the U.S. economy added just 73,000 jobs in July... the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2%... and most notably, hiring totals for May and June were revised down dramatically – with a combined 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. The new numbers said just 19,000 jobs were added in May and only 14,000 in June, compared to the 125,000 and 147,000 previously stated, respectively.
The news sent the major U.S. indexes down by at least 1% each. And the CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX") leapt above 20, at least in part because of the May and June revisions.
Today, Trump described the numbers as "rigged" – just like others before his election last November (more on that later). Hence the firing.
But most likely, Friday's jobs revision just reflected the Bureau of Labor Statistics' flawed data-gathering and production process. The numbers published are modeled out based on surveys, whose response rate has been dwindling for years.
We've written about this before...
Last August, the preelection period Trump is referring to, the "benchmark" payroll growth from April 2023 to March 2024 was revised down by 818,000 jobs. That was 30% of the nearly 3 million jobs initially reported during the same 12-month period. Poof. Gone.
But the process happens every year, even if it's usually overlooked. As I (Corey McLaughlin) wrote a year ago...
We will mostly spare the complaining about government data and how you can be off by 818,000 anything over a 12-month period... And we won't belabor the fact that investors first cling to "official" data that's only to be revised later to a closer reflection (though still a distorted version) of reality.
When we hear from readers skeptical about official data, this is precisely why they're right. Yet as I can't say enough, we will also continue to talk about it because, for better or worse, it matters to many other investors – as you see in the knee-jerk market reactions to government reports.
This year's benchmark is still to come in September. But here's one thing to take from Friday's sequence of events: Trump may want lower interest rates, but not because his government reports a weakening jobs market.
With the updated numbers, the public and private sectors have added just 35,000 jobs per month since May. That pace has historically been seen during or around recessions.
The irony is that the revised numbers could provoke the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting...
That's what the market is suddenly betting on.
Federal-funds futures traders' expectations for a rate cut next month spiked on Friday and now sit around 88%, up from 38% on Thursday.
That may sound like a good thing – with more juice for the market. But in this context, the reason for the Fed to lower rates would be a weakening jobs market, which doesn't exactly portend continued strength for the economy.
And a cracking economy combined with market sentiment that, as we've reported lately, has been showing signs of extreme bullishness, could lead to downside ahead for stocks.
U.S. stock indexes snapped back higher today as if nothing happened on Friday, all gaining at least 1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index each gained around 2%. The VIX fell by almost 15%. But we wouldn't be surprised to see some continued volatility stemming from the path of the labor market and investors weighing potential Fed responses to it in the months ahead.
Meanwhile, there's a sudden opening at the Fed...
Lost in the jobs report coverage on Friday was Fed Governor Adriana Kugler stepping down from her position with the central bank. Kugler is one of 12 voters on the Federal Open Market Committee.
In her formal resignation letter, Kugler didn't provide a reason for leaving, but she'll reportedly be returning to her job as a professor at Georgetown University this fall.
Kugler didn't vote in the Fed's rate decision last week, but she was known to be more on the "hawkish" side of things and in favor of holding rates higher to stomp out inflation.
Trump plans to fill Kugler's seat on the Fed policymaking board, in addition to hiring a new Bureau of Labor Statistics head, "probably over the next couple of days."
So it's possible that the person Trump has in mind to be the next Fed chair (potentially Kevin Warsh) could get a seat on the voting board a little earlier than expected.
That would make for an interesting period between now and May, when current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends. We'll see what happens, but now there's a spot that a "low-interest person" could fill.
It all points here...
As we've been writing recently, signs are pointing to a lower-interest-rate environment ahead.
I can't tell you exactly when rates might go lower and dollars will get "cheaper," though it might happen sooner than later now. But even if it doesn't, you can bet on one thing continuing: the gradual devaluation of the U.S. dollar... and more inflation.
The value of the U.S. dollar has been eroding for decades – across many presidents and parties in control – although the pace has accelerated in recent times. We have long said that the erosion will continue so long as we live in a fiat currency system.
Trump isn't even trying to hide that fact. Two weeks ago, he told reporters at the White House...
When we have a strong dollar, one thing happens: It sounds good. But you don't do any tourism, you can't sell tractors, you can't sell trucks, you can't sell anything. It is good for inflation. That's about it, and we have no inflation...
It doesn't sound good, but you make a hell of a lot more money with a weaker dollar – not a weak dollar, but a weaker dollar – than you do with a strong dollar... I don't lose sleep over it, let's put it that way.
He may not be worried, but a constantly weak(er) dollar has long-term consequences...
The 'Great Devaluation'...
We're seeing a long-term devaluation of everything denominated in dollars, like labor and your savings or fixed-income payments. It's why we've long made the case for owning "hard assets" like gold in a well-diversified portfolio. It's inflation protection.
Our Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig calls this story the "Great Devaluation." You see, while the headlines tend to focus on inflation and interest rates, the real risk is systemic – a financial reset that erodes purchasing power and ruins conventional strategies like holding bonds or cash.
A lot of people don't know the very best ways to hedge directly against this slow erosion of the U.S. dollar in their portfolio.
That's why Doc has put together a brand-new blueprint designed for an era of currency devaluation. He has hand-picked recommendations designed to protect and grow your savings before the next phase of this story wipes out the unprepared.
Doc has been our retirement expert at Stansberry Research for more than 20 years, and he's now the CEO of our parent company MarketWise. So we urge you to watch this free presentation and "manifesto" from Doc to learn how you can protect and grow your wealth in the years ahead.
(And a note for our Stansberry Alliance members and Doc's Income Intelligence subscribers: Feel free to check out Doc's presentation, but you already have access to all of this new research right here.)
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New 52-week highs (as of 8/1/25): Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund (DFJ), ResMed (RMD), and Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU).
In today's mail, feedback on Dan Ferris' Friday essay, which included discussion about flawed inflation data from the government (a bit of serendipity from Dan given the labor market data kerfuffle on Friday)...
"Don't forget that a major reason that the government purposely reports a low-ball yearly [Consumer Price Index ("CPI")] is that the Social Security (and many other yearly) 'salary' increases are based on it. That saves billions per year on [cost of living adjustment ("COLA")] increases paid by the government and other 'employers'. That's a very big incentive to 'cheat' on the CPI, isn't it?
"As an American existing on my monthly Social Security check, that means that my income is effectively getting smaller every year (as are the salaries of every other American whose COLA is based on the CPI). Another instance of government and industry collusion keeping so many of us behind inflation and getting deeper in debt each year.
"Maybe we should all ask our congressmen to investigate this situation and try to help the little guy (their constituents) by defining a more financially accurate CPI!..." – Subscriber Lewis M.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
August 4, 2025