Live From Las Vegas: Our Annual Stansberry Research Conference
Highlights from Day 1 of our annual conference... Porter Stansberry on what went wrong with Berkshire – and why you should avoid the same mistakes... What matters and what doesn't... Brett Eversole's most important 5% today...
Warren Buffett lost his way, and only 5% matters in the market...
Those were just some of today's takeaways.
We're at the Aria Resort & Casino, in the heart of the Las Vegas Strip, for our annual Stansberry Research Conference & Alliance Meeting. It's our biggest event of the year, where our editors, guest speakers, staff, and subscribers all gather together.
I (Corey McLaughlin) will be writing to you each day with some highlights. And we'll have some market updates for you, too...
The three-day event began this morning with talks from MarketWise CEO and Retirement Millionaire editor Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig... our company's founder, Porter Stansberry... geopolitical expert Marko Papic... and True Wealth editor Brett Eversole.
Doc opened the conference, addressing a full ballroom of attendees.
"We have an incredible three days and nights ahead of us, packed with big ideas, timely market insights, and some truly outstanding speakers with stories you'll want to hear," Doc said. "Buckle up, [and] put your thinking caps on."
Then he introduced Porter...
What went wrong with Berkshire Hathaway – and what you can learn from it...
I'll speak for myself (and probably many others in the room, too) when I say Porter had me rethinking how I allocate my portfolio by the time he finished his presentation.
It was all about the findings and investing lessons that Porter shares in his new 300-page book about Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, titled Warren's Mistakes: How America's Greatest Business Became Just Another Failed Conglomerate That Can't Beat the S&P 500 — And Why It Must Be Restructured.
As Porter said onstage today: After outperforming the S&P 500 Index by 11% annually from 1967 to 2007, Berkshire began to underperform.
Porter detailed the reasons why... and how individual investors can avoid the same mistakes to make market-beating returns. He also shared what Berkshire should do to start beating the market again.
The turning point, Porter said, was when Buffett shifted from buying shares of the world's greatest public businesses – and, famously, insurers – while using some leverage... to buying outright control of mediocre companies and remaking Berkshire into a conglomerate.
"Berkshire changed what it was," Porter said, and he explained why...
I'll give you just a simple example. He sold McDonald's in 1998. What did he do with the money? He bought Dairy Queen. Those two things are not comparable entities in any way, shape, or form. And they traded down in quality to gain full control over the entity.
He did so because he wanted tax efficiency, but what he lost in quality was not made up for with the difference in tax efficiency.
Porter shared plenty more examples across various industries where Buffett passed on buying high-quality public companies – like Gulfstream jet maker General Dynamics (GD) – in favor of building a conglomerate of lesser companies like private jet company NetJets.
Rather than doing that, Berkshire should go back to being "a fortress of insurers and a pantheon of great businesses," Porter said.
And herein lies Porter's lesson for individual investors...
You can – and should – do what Buffett used to do...
It's simple: Buy the world's best businesses – and specifically long-tenured leaders in various uncorrelated sectors.
If you can, use a little leverage. Buffett was able to do that for free because of the float generated by his insurance businesses. Individual investors must pay a percentage to a broker.
But this plan, in Porter's estimate, could deliver around 18% compound annual returns. The strategy did just that from 1993 through today, beating the S&P 500 by 8 percentage points and Berkshire by 5 percentage points. As Porter said...
Before the year 2000, Berkshire was the very best property and casualty insurance company in the world, paired with an equity portfolio made up of the very best large-cap stocks in the world. That is a winning combination.
Finally, Porter shared a list of 10 stocks that he believes are worth owning now and that meet the test of "survivorship" – companies that he expects to be around 50 years from today. Buy them and rebalance once a year, he said, and you can ignore the "macro" risks of the day and rest easy.
The 5% that matters...
When Brett took the stage this morning, he delivered another big-picture talk with a simple, actionable takeaway and a handful of stock recommendations for attendees.
He made the case that the hardest part of following markets isn't finding data – it's ignoring almost all of it. For example, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' database alone holds more than 800,000 data series.
Brett's rule, which he said he learned from watching his mentor and True Wealth founding editor Steve Sjuggerud trade through the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, is that 95% of what crosses your screen doesn't matter in a given year. Your job is finding the 5% that does.
For example, in 2010, with Europe's debt crisis flaring... unemployment above 9%... and stocks in a 16% correction, Steve's 5% was simple: the Federal Reserve.
Then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke had all but promised to keep rates near zero and print money until the economy healed, no matter the consequences. Waves of quantitative easing carried the market and drowned out any other noise.
But the critical 5% keeps rotating...
In 2020, it was Fed policy, again, and COVID-19 vaccine timelines. By 2022, it was inflation numbers. And from 2023 through last year, it was AI capital spending.
Today, it's AI selling...
The market is valuing companies that can make money from AI... This is AI "Phase 2," Brett says.
Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) shares jumped roughly 15% and 16%, respectively, after their latest earnings reports showed that their cloud businesses are turning AI demand into big revenue. Amazon Web Services revenue grew 37% year over year, and Microsoft's Azure revenue grew 43%.
Meta Platforms (META), which has no cloud business to sell AI capacity through, saw its shares fall about 8% after it reported earnings.
Brett also cited Anthropic's revenue run rate, which he said went from about $1 billion in January 2025 to $65 billion this July. OpenAI's has roughly doubled since year-end to around $40 billion, proof that real money is now moving through AI products directly.
However, Brett said that shift doesn't make the market's dependence on AI capital spending any less real or concerning...
He called the setup a "house of cards." The market will keep rising only as long as the spending does. But things aren't slowing down yet... AI spending is expected to top $700 billion this year and reach as high as $1.6 trillion in a few years. Until that stops, the bust is "years off," Brett said.
And the thing is, the spending part of the boom – "Phase 1" – can still keep going as "Phase 2" plays out.
For attendees in the room and those watching with a Livestream Pass, Brett shared his preferred ways to get exposure to AI spending and selling – including a handful of stocks that he says trade at cheap prices relative to their growth expectations.
And plenty more...
As I write to you, sessions are still going on...
Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade is currently onstage. Up next is Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin and Seabridge Gold CEO Rudi Fronk, who also hosted a welcome reception here at the Aria yesterday... plus Stansberry Research senior analyst Josh Baylin, Kyla Scanlon (who wrote to you in these pages on Friday), and our old colleague Austin Root.
InvestorPlace's Luke Lango, portfolio manager David Bahnsen, and Altimetry's Joel Litman will close things out this afternoon.
Tomorrow brings another full schedule...
Day 2 will include a presentation from Dr. David Agus on the intersection of medicine and technology, including AI... an appearance by Henry Winkler (yes, "The Fonz")... tech investor and analyst Dan Ives... Epsilon Theory's Ben Hunt... and Frank Trotter of Battle Bank.
Of course, folks from our team will also take center stage, including Market Maven editor Gabe Marshank on AI "shenanigans" and Dan Ferris on "why physics is kicking finance's ass."
Before that, though, is tonight's VIP reception. It's always one of the highlights of the week, when speakers and conference attendees get together for food and drinks. This year, it's hosted by our friends at TradeSmith.
Meanwhile, a red day for markets...
While we're in Las Vegas, the world keeps turning. Today, that included more Iran headlines and another move higher in global government bond yields.
Let's start with Iran...
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in return for looser economic sanctions, though he said that he expects the next round of talks to start this week.
On energy, Trump said that the government is "very seriously" considering an export ban for diesel fuel.
As we wrote last week, some diesel pumps are "maxed out." From the September 23 Digest...
In California, some gas stations have maxed out diesel prices at $9.999 on the gas pump register, only because they don't have an extra digit to go to $10. The pumps weren't designed with double-digit dollar prices in mind. Talk about a sign of the times.
But banning diesel exports won't bring prices down. In fact, it could have the opposite effect. Last week, when the diesel ban first started gaining traction, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that "the blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't work."
Put simply, such a ban would mean that diesel storage tanks would fill up too quickly, and Wright says we'd "run out of places to store it." He added that refiners would have to cut back on their other operations to focus on more diesel, which would put upward pressure on other energy products.
Trump admitted as much on Sunday night, saying that banning diesel exports may cause a "little" rise in standard gasoline prices.
Investors got the message... Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude climbed today. On the other side of the trade, all three major stock indexes ended the day lower.
As for yields...
Government bond yields continued their march higher. The 10-year Treasury yield traded at 5.23% today, its highest level since the second quarter of 2007. The story was the same with longer-dated debt. At today's level of 5.56%, the 30-year Treasury yield is the highest it has been since 2004.
The recent move higher could spell doom for the economy... As we've written before, the 10-year yield is what nearly all consumer debt is based on.
John Roque, head of technical analysis at 22V Research, recently highlighted 16 instances when the 10-year yield spiked higher over the past five decades. Each time, there was some sort of financial crisis. "Something gets knocked out," Roque said.
Most recently, according to Roque, was the 2022 rate-hike cycle (which led to a prolonged bear market) and 2023's Silicon Valley Bank failure.
Only time will tell what – if anything – takes the hit from the latest move higher in bond yields. It could be AI debt or private credit.
Either way, yields are worth keeping an eye on.
New 52-week highs (as of 9/25/26): Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), and Waters (WAT).
In today's mailbag, more thoughts on gasoline – or petrol – prices... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Re: your petrol prices, your gas is cheap compared with ours!!!!! I live in New Zealand. The price of 91 octane is NZ $3.30 per litre!!! i.e. approx NZ $12.50 per gallon. Approx twice the price you fellas pay if you convert to U.S. dollars. Grrrrrrr!" – Subscriber Bruce R.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Las Vegas, Nevada and Baltimore, Maryland
September 28, 2026