Editor's note: There's one lesson every commodities investor needs to learn…
"Fast" isn't a word that exists in the mining business. The U.S. government recently learned this lesson firsthand. Despite all its power, it cannot speed up the process of digging up the critical minerals it needs. But that's not stopping Washington from throwing money at the problem.
In today's Masters Series, our friend and commodities expert Nick Hodge explains why shortages aren't as easy to fix as the government would like you to believe... and why that can make you money...
One Thing the Politicians in Washington Can't Control
Last October, the U.S. government tried to buy its way into a copper mine.
The Department of Defense ("DOD") signed a letter of intent to make a $36 million investment in a company called Trilogy Metals (TMQ). In exchange, the government would get a 10% ownership stake and some warrants – the right to buy additional shares in the future at a specific price.
The market went nuts on the news and TMQ shares soared from around $2 a share to more than $10 in a matter of days...
Then, everyone sat back and waited for the deal to close.
The first deadline came and went, so Trilogy extended the deadline... but then the second deadline came and went, too.
And wouldn't you know it, the stock came crashing back down to earth...
A few months ago, the company finally put out a press release:
Discussions with the [DOD] continue and the letter of intent signed in October 2025 remains in effect.
In other words, the update was that there was no update.
Here's what happened behind the scenes, as best I can tell.
The government thought it was buying a mine. What it actually bought was a stake in an exploration project in the Alaskan wilderness with no road, no permits finished, and no mine built.
Somebody in Washington, D.C. thought he could flip a switch and turn this thing on.
But that's not how mining works. As I'll explain in today's essay, that has never been how mining works... and buried in this story is an important lesson for investors...
Over the past couple of decades, the time it takes to find a U.S. copper deposit, prove it out, permit it, and build the actual mine has stretched to 29 years.
In other words, you can permit a project tomorrow and still be a decade away from pulling metal out of the ground.
Of course, the government didn't know that. Why would they? For my entire career, Washington, D.C. treated mining like a nuisance, throwing up as much red tape as possible.
Now, they need it fast. And they're finding out that "fast" isn't a word that exists in the mining business.
Two clocks are ticking in the resource world right now.
The first clock is political and moves at the speed of a headline. A president signs an order, a stockpile gets announced, or a deadline with China gets set. That clock spins fast.
The second clock is geological and moves at the speed of rock. You have to find the deposit. Then you have to drill it... study it... fight for the permits... raise the money... build the roads, the power, and the processing. That clock barely moves at all.
When those two clocks fall out of sync – when the world suddenly wants a metal now, but the supply is still 10 or 20 years away – something has to give.
Only one thing can move fast enough to close that gap: price.
Supply can't respond in time, but demand won't wait... So the price of a metal goes up and up until it either kills demand or finally drags new supply into the world.
We've watched this happen over and over. It's why I keep telling my readers that the "boring" stuff like the mines, the drills, and the permits matters more than the flashy stuff.
The Trilogy saga isn't a one-off example. The politicians in Washington have decided they need to control the supply of critical minerals – like copper, rare earths, uranium, lithium, etc. – the stuff our military and whole economy run on.
So they're doing what governments do: They're throwing money at it, taking stakes in companies, cutting out the red tape, and handing out loans.
But money can't build a mine any faster, just like nine women can't make a baby in one month.
Some things just take the time they take. And the current administration is learning that lesson in public, one awkward press release at a time.
By some counts, America has as little as 60 days of certain critical minerals sitting in its stockpiles... against a supply problem that takes decades to fix.
That's not a gap you can close with the president's signature.
Here's what I want you to take away from the Trilogy story, regardless of whether you ever buy a single resource stock...
When politics drives demand and geology traps supply, they run on completely different clocks. The only part of the system that can react in real time is the price.
It's one of the most important concepts in resource investing. It's why shortages don't fix themselves overnight. It's why a metal the world "must have" can stay expensive for years. And it's why the folks who understand the geology rather than the headlines tend to see these moves coming long before the folks in Washington, D.C. do.
Because you can't executive order a mine into existence, but you can understand what happens to prices when a whole government finally figures that out... And positioning yourself ahead of that can make you a fortune.
Regards,
Nick Hodge
Editor's note: Nick and legendary natural resources investor Rick Rule, who made 1,000 times his money – twice – are stepping forward to inform folks of a new investing opportunity in the commodities space.
It all has to do with our leaders' attempt to create a "Fort Knox" of critical minerals... And they're doing whatever it takes to get it done. Both Nick and Rick believe this is a moment you don't want to miss, so they're urging you to hear what they've discovered here.