Tariffs, Again
From 10% to 15% in 24 hours… 'Pure tariff chaos'… What comes next?... More AI disruption… Your feedback on tariffs… The VIX is waking up… 'Extreme fear' in cryptocurrencies…
Tariff 'chaos' is back (for now)...
The ink wasn't quite dry on President Donald Trump's signature on new 10% global tariffs before the levies had jumped again...
This 10% tariff was a backup plan after the Supreme Court struck down his "Liberation Day" levies on Friday...
Hours later, on Saturday, Trump said in a social media post that he was raising the worldwide tariff on countries "to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level." He was referring to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, one of several different laws the White House now intends to use for implementing tariffs.
The 1974 law allows a president to enact certain tariffs for 150 days – to address urgent trade imbalances or retaliatory actions by other countries – before needing congressional approval. Trump's broad use of the law could also face new legal challenges.
Trump had previously relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to raise tariffs at will. But the Supreme Court said on Friday that because tariffs are taxes, they require congressional approval.
The decision raised new questions about U.S. trade relations, agreements with other countries, and refunds for U.S. businesses. (It sounds like it will take a fresh legal battle to decide if importers are eligible for refunds on their now-invalidated tariff payments.)
We covered this on Friday, saying "we have some answers for you, but some remain."
If you're still searching for more answers, you're not alone...
So is Europe, for example. Here's NBC News with an account of the European Parliament again postponing a vote on the trade "deal" that the European Union and the U.S. agreed to last year...
The European Parliament on Monday halted the ratification process of a sweeping trade deal with the United States, the latest fallout from the Supreme Court striking down most of President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Following an emergency meeting in Brussels, lawmakers said the U.S.' side of the deal is now "so uncertain."
"Nobody knows what will happen... and it's unclear if there will be additional measures or how the United States will really guarantee" its end of the agreement, the parliament's trade committee chief Bernd Lange said.
On Sunday, Lange put it in even clearer terms, writing on the social platform X...
Today, only more questions emerged...
Another social media post from Trump today threatened higher tariffs, "and worse," on countries that don't stick to trade deals they negotiated under the threat of his now-invalidated tariff authority...
A big one is China... which suddenly has a lower effective tariff rate as a result of the Supreme Court ruling.
But bears don't need to let their minds wander far... They might say almost everything on trade is back to square one, aside from the notable tariffs that remain in place under other laws – including on commodities like steel, aluminum, copper, and lumber, as well as automobiles and car parts...
Among the next set of questions: do new risks emerge with China, and even Europe, as agreements are revisited? Maybe. Maybe not. But in the meantime, uncertainty does not tend to do the markets any favors.
As we wrote on Friday after the Supreme Court decision, it appeared the market had moved on from tariff chaos. Investors had assumed for months that the "Liberation Day" levies would be found illegal. They stopped following the latest headlines. Even when their assumption became official on Friday, the market didn't flinch.
But now, investors have more reason to think about what happens next for global trade.
We're staying the course in what broadly remains a bull market, but volatility has picked up…
Today, the major U.S. stock indexes were lower. The Russell 2000 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly 2%, and the benchmark S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index were down closer to 1%.
The "AI disruption" series of sell-offs continued as well. Many leading cybersecurity stocks were down for a second straight day after the debut of a new security tool from AI company Anthropic on Friday. CrowdStrike (CRWD), for example, has lost about 16% in two days.
Similarly, shares of International Business Machines (IBM) lost 13% today after Anthropic detailed in a blog post that its Claude Code could modernize IBM's COBOL programming language like nothing has been able to do in decades.
Between tariffs and AI breakthroughs/concerns, the CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX") rose 12% today to above 21. The VIX, widely considered the market's "fear gauge," has been steadily trending higher since a Christmas Eve low under 14.
Your feedback on tariffs...
On Friday, we asked for your feedback and observations about the latest on tariffs since we last had our group discussion about them in 2025... And plenty of you wrote in again. We'll begin sharing your notes today...
We start with another note from subscriber K.M., who told us last year that he was tapped as "project manager for tariffs" for a large automotive supplier.
Now, he predicts that the Supreme Court's ruling will just lead the White House to apply different tariff laws to get virtually the same rates. As he put it, "This will likely just be a shuffling of the deck with substitutions."
Still, this means "another massive amount of work for all businesses that import anything." As K.M. continued...
It's been known and published for months 700 additional HTS [import] codes that will likely be activated in the case of the Supreme Court knocking down IEEPA. Those codes will affect a large swath of the rest of stuff imported that will be hit with Section 232, like derivative metals (steel, aluminum and copper primarily).
In the next few weeks I think it will become clear that the tariffs will just shift to another section of the law.
Meanwhile, subscriber Mike K. is seeking more clarity now...
It's time for our lazy Congress to step in and clear up the tariff power of the president... but my bet is they won't.
I (Corey McLaughlin) am with you on that bet. As for the effects of the tariffs, subscriber Richard E. has a prediction...
Small or big business will both pass the cost to us, the consumers. The whole idea per [Dr. David "Doc"] Eifrig is to devalue the dollar and I believe this president will do that... pushing gold up to $27,000 an ounce so we can share the [effects of] newly printed dollars with our fellow nations. Maybe interest rates will go higher as well.
Meanwhile, subscriber Jon R. isn't expecting a tariff refund anytime soon, if ever...
I'm a consumer. I've repeatedly heard the tariffs were a tax on me personally... I will not hold my breath and await the refund.
Others wrote in saying their businesses are doing fine...
Here is John C. reporting from Wyoming...
We have seen an increase in livestock production revenue turning into a banner year. We anticipate continued strong prices throughout 2026. Oil development continues to be at a steady pace with three more wells being drilled in the first half of this year. Wyoming is starting to see development of computer centers and increasing power demand.
And Matt A. says that after a slow but steady 2025, business in his small structural-engineering firm seems to be "picking up quite a bit." He writes...
We're getting work in existing manufacturing facilities for new heavy equipment foundations. New small commercial buildings (if they get built) are coming into the picture as well. There is a lot of modification going on to existing commercial structures and single-family residences. In short, I'm a bit more optimistic right now than I have been for around six to eight years.
We could go on with more notes, but we'll cut it here for now and meet subscriber Jim B.'s hopes for us...
I think you all have spent too much time on this issue. I have two businesses, one of them is manufacturing... we adjusted and moved on... You all can't seem to.
Fair point. I see currency devaluation as America's main economic theme. But we do need to discuss trending news like tariffs and what it could mean for the markets.
Speaking of that, here is Francis M. with a kind note about Friday's edition...
Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol, I always look forward to reading what Dan Ferris has to say on Friday nights, but I was glad to see you two came up with a succinct discussion about the tariff decision and impact. Nicely done!
Thanks. We'll try to keep it up... and please keep your notes coming to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. But we have one more subject to cover before we go today...
Bitcoin is back in the headlines, too...
And not for great reasons.
With the world's largest cryptocurrency currently trading around $65,000, bitcoin is now at its lowest level since October 2024. Its price has been nearly cut in half from its November high.
We wrote to you back in our October 13 issue about the "biggest liquidation sale ever" that bitcoin and other cryptos experienced soon after trading at an all-time high above $120,000. More than $19 billion of forced selling was seen by leveraged traders with collateral calls.
Turns out, that was a sign of more to come...
And once again, the spark was fresh U.S. trade tensions, particularly with China.
As Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade explained in the "Crypto Corner" section of Stansberry Innovations Report on Friday, overleveraged traders have continued to be washed out of the crypto market on the way down from a record high. From Eric...
Simply put, traders borrowed money from exchanges like Binance and Kraken to invest. Natural volatility pushed crypto prices lower. Once losses hit a certain point, the exchanges automatically sold traders' positions to prevent further damage. The selling pushed prices lower still... and the whole process repeated.
Axios reported $3 billion in bitcoin position liquidations between January 28 and February 4. On February 5, more than $1 billion was liquidated in a single day.
As Eric pointed out, forced liquidations like this can start a huge cycle of selling. And it's not uncommon for that wave of selling pressure to cause a quick move lower in bitcoin. But it's not the only reason for lower bitcoin prices...
According to Eric, crypto also got caught up in the "sell anything AI" trade, along with the concerns over a potentially "hawkish" new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh.
Altogether, sentiment has plummeted in cryptos...
Put simply, no one wants anything to do with crypto at the moment. More from Eric's update in Innovations Report on Friday...
Last week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to its lowest reading ever... 5 out of 100. Folks are fleeing in droves...
And as Eric explained in his weekly update for Crypto Capital subscribers on Friday, last week's ETHDenver 2026 conference was "quiet." He didn't see crypto "tourists" – the novices who are just trying to make a quick buck – who fill such events in bullish times.
But looking past the fear, good news is happening in crypto...
As we covered in the January 21 edition of the Digest, the underlying blockchain technology continues to make strides. Plans for a blockchain-based 24-hour New York Stock Exchange platform have even been proposed. From that Digest...
In layman's terms, folks could soon trade stocks and exchange-traded funds at any time – entirely on the blockchain.
It's the next step in digitizing the stock market... and it's a sign of increasing blockchain adoption.
That trend has continued in the last few weeks. Market regulators are looking for more input from crypto giants on how to speed up the adoption of blockchain technology. As Eric shared in the Innovations Report...
Also, on February 12, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced a new Innovation Advisory Committee of crypto industry professionals, including CEOs from Coinbase, Robinhood, Uniswap, and Nasdaq. The goal of the commission is for insight from industry professionals to help fast-track regulatory clarity and institutional adoption of blockchain technology in the U.S.
We still don't know if the wave of forced liquidations in cryptos has run its course. If we see more, bitcoin will head even lower. But we see this situation as well-suited to a contrarian stance.
When sentiment is this depressed in any asset, and the underlying trend (crypto adoption, in this case) is still going strong, a rebound is often on the way.
Still, Eric warns that crypto is a volatile market. It reacts to both good and bad news around the clock. And we've been getting plenty of both these days.
New 52-week highs (as of 2/20/26): Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), First Majestic Silver (AG), Antero Midstream (AM), Applied Materials (AMAT), ASML (ASML), BAE Systems (BAESY), BHP (BHP), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Ciena (CIEN), CME Group (CME), Canadian National Railway (CNI), Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE), iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy Fund (DBMF), Emcor (EME), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), iShares MSCI South Korea Fund (EWY), Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield Fund (EYLD), State Street SPDR Euro STOXX 50 Fund (FEZ), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Fund (FYLD), Honeywell International (HON), Hubbell (HUBB), KraneShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index Fund (KEMX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Coca-Cola (KO), Linde (LIN), Lumentum (LITE), NYLI CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Term Fund (MEGI), Monster Beverage (MNST), Merck (MRK), New York Times (NYT), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), Invesco Oil & Gas Services Fund (PXJ), Ryder System (R), Robo Global Robotics and Automation Index Fund (ROBO), SandRidge Energy (SD), Sprott (SII), Skeena Resources (SKE), Snap-on (SNA), SSR Mining (SSRM), Texas Pacific Land (TPL), Travelers (TRV), Vanguard FTSE Europe Fund (VGK), and State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI).
We shared a lot of mail above, so we'll hold off with our regular mailbag section today... But, as always, keep your notes, comments, and questions coming to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
February 23, 2026