The AI Bubble Loses Some Air

President Trump's speech at the United Nations... We're starting to restock weapons... Texas expands its data-center ban... Data-center project delays have already surpassed 2025 levels... AI IPOs are delayed, but still on the docket...

Six more weeks of war?...

This morning, President Donald Trump gave a speech at the United Nations General Assembly. In it, he predicted that the U.S. will make a deal with Iran sometime after the midterm elections.

At the same time, he said he has "a big decision" to make on Iran – whether to make a deal or to "annihilate" the country. His comments came after Reuters reported that Iran has told the U.S. that it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. eases up on military pressure. Iran later refuted the report.

With Trump continuing to play up both a deal and "hard-line" stance, investors took a "wait and see" approach today.

West Texas Intermediate crude dropped early in the morning and hit its lowest level in two weeks, before rebounding and ending the day flat. Stocks were mixed, with tech stocks higher and the Nasdaq Composite Index hitting a new all-time high.

More from Trump's speech in New York...

Trump talked about more than just Iran today. He also celebrated the deal with Greenland (which we covered yesterday). It gives the U.S. "the complete ability" to do whatever it thinks is necessary to defend both the U.S. and Europe.

Also on the military front, Trump said that a "massive" munitions plant will be opening soon and that the U.S. is replenishing its weapons stockpiles "fast." (Remember, our weapons stockpiles are "beyond critical" low levels.)

If the Iran conflict really does wrap up with a deal after the midterms, the U.S. could accelerate the restocking process into the end of the year. That would be a tailwind for the struggling defense sector.

Since the start of the Iran war, the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA) is down more than 12%, while the S&P 500 Index has risen about 13% and is within 1% of its all-time high. But with the government rushing to replenish its weapons stockpiles, that gap could close quickly.

And it won't just be the large, household-name government contractors winning, either. Joel Litman, chief investment officer at our corporate affiliate Altimetry, has identified a group of small companies that will "reshape the defense industry and its supply chain."

Joel is going live with his message on Thursday, joined by Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet and Stansberry's Investment Advisory editor Whitney Tilson. You can sign up for free right here.

Texas takes its data-center ban a step further...

In a press release yesterday, Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced that he has directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to halt all permits for data-center applications.

Last month, Abbott blocked any more data centers from advancing construction or connecting to the power grid as the state audits the projects and their energy needs.

Now, Abbott is going a step further... Not only will existing projects under construction not be connected to the grid, but proposed projects can't be started.

Abbott laid out the requirements data centers will need to meet before he approves them going forward. From the press release...

Data center projects must cover all electrical infrastructure costs, result in lower residential electrical bills, and complete the [Electric Reliability Council of Texas] audit. Data centers must not use water needed by local communities, must report electricity and water usage, and must abide by setback requirements that will protect the communities in which they operate.

As we wrote in the August 13 Digest, there are more planned data centers in Texas than in any other state besides Virginia. According to project tracker Cleanview, there are now 364 planned data centers in the state.

Abbott has said that the audit could take several months, meaning that there could be no more approved or connected data-center projects in Texas this year.

The delays are adding up...

And the opposition extends past Texas... New York has imposed its own ban on data-center projects, and research firm Data Center Watch cited 30 different state governments that have targeted data centers with laws and executive actions.

Nearly $70 billion of data-center projects in the U.S. was blocked or postponed in the second quarter of 2026, according to Data Center Watch.

When you add that to the $130 billion in data-center projects that Morgan Stanley estimates were canceled or delayed in the first three months of the year, we've now surpassed the $156 billion in project cuts and delays seen in all of last year.

Even though Trump said today that he is "not going to stifle growth of something that will be bigger than the Industrial Revolution," it's clear that states and local governments are willing to do so.

And it's not just individual data centers getting postponed...

Last week, we wrote about OpenAI tapping private markets again because it has pushed its initial public offering ("IPO") back to 2027.

Venture firm SoftBank (SFTBY) is raising $11 billion in debt to fund another round of private investment in OpenAI.

It's worth noting that SoftBank invested more than $6 billion in WeWork before the company pulled its IPO and had to be bailed out. So once again, SoftBank is plowing money into a company that has had to push back its IPO.

Meanwhile, OpenAI's chief competitor, Anthropic, has reportedly pushed its IPO back to November – from its initial plan of an October offering.

And just yesterday, a report from the New York Times indicated that SB Energy – a company tasked with providing power to OpenAI data centers – is delaying its IPO because it can't find enough investors to meet its $50 billion target valuation.

This isn't the AI bubble popping.

But rising data-center opposition, along with calls to pace the development of new AI models, has taken some of the air out of the bubble.

Of course, there's still plenty of "froth" in AI...

Big tech companies are still prepared to invest more than $1 trillion in AI capital expenditures within the next two years. As long as that money continues buying chips, computing power, and more, tech stocks will lead the markets higher.

And these companies will go public at some point in the coming months. Their operations burn through billions in cash every year (OpenAI just predicted it will burn through nearly $280 billion in cash between now and the end of 2030) – so they'll need to turn to retail investors at some point.

That day is coming soon.

But some folks can't wait that long...

As Bloomberg reported earlier this week, there are some investors who are taking "big risks" in investments that give access to private markets. One of those investors even said he believes that "the chance of losing money on an Anthropic IPO is very low."

Of course, that's not true – no investment is ever a sure thing. And we can use the hottest IPO of the year so far as an example...

SpaceX (SPCX) is still down about 5% from its first close as a public company. And it saw a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 50% within its first two months as a public company.

There are still plenty of question marks around AI IPOs. We haven't even seen audited financials from OpenAI or Anthropic. And in the case of OpenAI, Whitney believes those financials may cause the company to pull its IPO altogether.

One thing is certain – there will be plenty of volatility around these companies and other AI stocks in the weeks leading up to and after the IPOs.

New 52-week highs (as of 9/21/26): Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Cloudflare (NET), Okta (OKTA), and Priority Technology (PRTH).

In today's mailbag, thoughts on our writing style... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Posts are too long. Put conclusions first with story to follow. If I don't see improvement I will post to social media to help communicate this message to you." – Subscriber Vincent W.

Corey McLaughlin comment: Noted. We'll await your X or Facebook post.

All the best,

Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
September 22, 2026