The Court of Market Opinion

Trump's tariff defeat... Next stop: Supreme Court... What's new is old again... Think for yourself... Eric Wade: This could be the 'biggest trade in U.S. history'...

The next phase of the tariff fight...

Nearly five months after it was first filed, the lawsuit from a group of small U.S. businesses against President Donald Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs is closer than ever to being decided.

On Friday, a federal appeals court ruled 7-4 that Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs (and similar plans that have come up in trade deals since) are illegal.

In short, the appeal court reaffirmed the Court of International Trade's May ruling that the president doesn't have the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to enact tariffs. The court said...

The core Congressional power to impose taxes such as tariffs is vested exclusively in the legislative branch by the Constitution.

That means Congress, not the president, has the power to impose tariffs.

Now, this isn't the end of the road...

The appeals court is allowing the White House's tariffs to remain in place through October 14. So the Trump administration has time to take the case to the Supreme Court. But right now, the outcome is leaning the plaintiffs' way.

This lawsuit – V.O.S. Selections vs. Trump – was first filed in mid-April, shortly after Liberation Day. As I (Corey McLaughlin) wrote in the April 15 Digest...

A wine importer and distributor in New York [V.O.S. Selections]... a sportfishing-gear business in Pennsylvania... a pipe company in Utah... and a couple other small U.S. businesses filed a lawsuit against President Donald Trump yesterday.

They're seeking to block Trump's new tariffs on foreign imports, alleging they're illegal because Congress doesn't grant a president the power to levy tariffs based on trade deficits with other countries on the basis of a national "emergency."

While I'm not a lawyer, the case seemed destined for the Supreme Court (and is indeed headed there next). We suspected it would take some time to play out. But the writing appeared to be on the wall regarding the short-term market impact...

When you pair this suit with what we've heard recently about tariff "flexibility"... exemptions... and expected trade deals with more than 10 foreign partners to be announced in the future, it sure sounds like the tariff war is losing its teeth.

I could be wrong. But all of this could mean more "less bad" news for the market...

The idea of reciprocal tariffs possibly being deemed illegal certainly didn't hurt U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 Index and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index rallying from their mid-April lows to hit new all-time highs recently.

But now there's something else to think about...

It remains to be seen if, how, or when the Supreme Court will rule on this case. But it looks like investors are hedging against the White House losing the case.

Longer-term bond yields moved higher today (though they're still below where they were in the spring). And gold futures soared over the weekend. The price of the metal hit a new all-time high above $3,600 per ounce today.

I always hesitate to chalk up big asset price moves to one thing, but it's hard to ignore the headlines suggesting that the U.S. government may need to refund the billions of dollars in tariffs that have been collected over the past several months.

As of July, the government took in $159 billion in tariff revenue this year – double what it was the year before. In a recent note on the U.S. debt rating, S&P Global Ratings – one of the "Big Three" credit-rating agencies – said that tariff revenue is offsetting the fiscal risk from lower tax revenue and increased spending in the "big, beautiful bill."

If the government ends up having to return that revenue, Uncle Sam would see a bigger budget deficit... while interest rates may be headed lower via the Federal Reserve.

So if you want to bet on one thing, the continued devaluation of the U.S. dollar is a good start. Meanwhile, a "hard asset" like gold will remain an appealing asset to hold.

That said, there are other ways for the Trump administration to collect new tariffs via existing trade acts that wouldn't be challenged in court. Just today, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the White House has a backup plan. I'd be shocked if they didn't use it. But it's hard to say exactly what Plan B will look like, and those next steps would take time.

In short, Wall Street has been kicking the idea of tariffs in their current form to the curb for months. Friday's ruling doesn't change that. But the development added a bit of volatility to the market, as people considered the second-order consequences of the idea.

The major U.S. indexes were down across the board today. And as we said, bond yields and gold rose. (Gold even broke out of an appealing technical setup.) Similarly, bitcoin – which has been down from its all-time highs of last month – rebounded to above $110,000 today.

This is just part of the story...

Over the past several decades, we've seen an endless parade of politicians and government officials who have taken actions to manipulate fiat currencies in a variety of circumstances and for various reasons. And it always ends the same – the value of that currency erodes.

So if you want to protect and grow your wealth, you must own exceptional assets that can help you beat inflation, like shares of high-quality businesses or gold.

And it's critical to think for yourself and listen to folks who aren't afraid to question mainstream narratives and recommend bets against them.

For example, right now, Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade says one financial move could completely reshape the entire market...

This could be 'the biggest trade in U.S. history'...

Earlier this year, Eric attended a financial conclave with the Trump family, Vice President JD Vance, and multiple billionaires.

The main topic of discussion was the U.S. debt markets.

As Eric writes in a new special report...

On May 29, I flew to a financial conclave in the middle of the desert...

I was joined by some of the world's richest investors, top CEOs, and high-ranking U.S. politicians to talk about sound money and financial freedom.

The top thing on everyone's mind? The dire state of the U.S. debt markets.

You see, the U.S. now owes more than $36 trillion. And our debts are projected to soar to more than $50 trillion in the next decade.

Meanwhile, the bond market is flashing warning signs...

As Eric explains, the White House has come up with a radical solution to fix the debt market. He calls this idea "Project Key Square"... and says it could be "the biggest trade in U.S. history." That's saying something, considering Eric has recommended more 1,000%-plus winners than anyone else at our firm.

Last month, Eric revealed the details about this trade publicly for the first time in a free presentation.

Eric's presentation was so well received that we've decided to reopen the opportunity. Click here to get all the details now. (Stansberry Alliance members and existing Crypto Capital subscribers have access to all of the details and Eric's recommendations right here.)

New 52-week highs (as of 8/29/25): Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alamos Gold (AGI), American Express (AXP), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Equinox Gold (EQX), Franco-Nevada (FNV), VanEck Gold Miners Fund (GDX), VanEck Junior Gold Miners Fund (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Alphabet (GOOGL), Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Kinross Gold (KGC), Newmont (NEM), New Gold (NGD), OR Royalties (OR), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV), Ryder System (R), Sandstorm Gold (SAND), iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond Fund (SGOV), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), SSR Mining (SSRM), and Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities (VTIP).

In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' latest Friday essay, "All Ships Can Sink"... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com

"Tell Dan Ferris that it was a very good and informative article. I've been following Stansberry Research newsletters for about 10 years now and am slowly getting past all the 'rookie mistakes' I've been warned about. Unfortunately, I've made a lot of them and had to learn some of the lessons from the 'school of hard knocks.'

"But the one lesson I knew about from the beginning was RISK. I'm an electrical engineer and spent about five years doing reliability analysis for an engineering company that designs data centers. I was working for them the last time 'the whole world needs more data centers,' and they over built, just like they are doing with AI now..." – Stansberry Alliance member Robert S.

"Dan it is great to have your perspective in Stansberry Research. To me, your approach to investing is the base of an investment pyramid. I wanted to bring out a point regarding investing in the current market of high valuations that I haven't heard anyone talking about. Being a value investor has recently not given me very many juicy opportunities, therefore I have been swing-trading since February. The volatility has given me opportunities to make some very good small term gains while I wait for valuations to drop. I do this in my retirement accounts, so the short-term gains aren't taxed." – Subscriber Ted B.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
September 2, 2025

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