The Market's Make-or-Break Moment
Semiconductors and tech are holding up the entire market... Time for Melt Up liftoff?... The White House portfolio expands... Stakes in quantum computing... Get there before the announcements break...
It's a market of contradictions...
The mixed messages about negotiations and a fresh "kinetic" flare-up between the U.S. and Iran continued over the long weekend.
Essentially, all the conflict's big points (like nuclear material in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz being closed to free passage) are still open-ended...
Persian Gulf oil also remains drastically cut off from the global supply chain. Today, July contracts for Brent crude – the international benchmark – and West Texas Intermediate were about 3% higher, rising to $100 and $94 per barrel, respectively.
In short, near-term oil prices continue to swing wildly on headlines, and they're about 40% higher than prewar levels. Plus, the practical impacts of the Strait of Hormuz's closure grow each day.
But the market continues to "price in" a resolution with no big fundamental disruption to energy supply. You can see this across the oil futures curve – with longer-dated oil contracts continuing to trade lower than near-term contracts the further out you go.
However, bond traders are increasingly pricing in higher inflation numbers tied to energy costs.
To be fair, both things can be true. Prices could be higher than they were – but not much more than they are today.
Then there's the stock market, which is distinctly split in two. In short, there's semiconductors and tech stocks – and everything else.
With another 2%-plus gain today, the tech sector of the S&P 500 Index is now up roughly 45% since its March 30 low, carrying the U.S. benchmark to around an 18% gain during that time frame. But nine of the 10 other major sectors haven't made new highs since March.
Real estate is the exception – barely. The State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) is essentially flat since making a new high for the year in April, and it's still below its 2024 highs and 2022 all-time highs.
Something has to give...
Narratives du jour and bubbly indicators aside (which we'll get into in tomorrow's edition)... from a technical perspective, Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond has called the recent market action the biggest "divergence I've ever seen."
Today, Greg wrote in an update for subscribers...
I spent a lot of time this weekend looking at various charts – time cycles of past and present, price action, and everything in between.
What I've concluded is the following…
1) This will be one of the most extreme "sell in May and go away" market environments we've seen in many, many years.
OR
2) We're entering the biggest euphoric bubble since the 1929/2000/2008 tops.
Here's the catch...
Big moves are coming no matter what.
As Greg went on to share, call-option volume on the S&P 500 Index has kept growing... and gone parabolic this year...
The thing is, during these wild environments, "the crowd can be right," Greg wrote.
Reading this, I (Corey McLaughlin) am reminded of a quote attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
I'm also reminded of our colleague Brett Eversole's "Melt Up Master Plan," available to True Wealth subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members here. In it, Brett highlighted how semiconductors have – and likely will – outperform during euphoric times.
A pair of semiconductor recommendations that Brett recommended along with that research are up about 110% and nearly 90%. Brett told subscribers to sell half of the former position, a leveraged play on semiconductors, earlier this month, explaining...
Selling half of positions up 100% or more lets us play with house money. It's the disciplined approach, something that's necessary when prices are soaring like they are right now.
As I wrote about a month ago, we're not saying to bet the farm against U.S. stocks at all-time highs, but we wouldn't be surprised to see a drawdown ahead. So it pays to know the type of environment – fear or greed – that you're in before taking on undue risk.
That's why Greg shared the outline of a possible game plan to trade a "euphoric market" if it's not clear the market has topped by the end of this month. Ten Stock Trader subscribers can find Greg's update here.
Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2%, the S&P 500 was up 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite Index was up more than 1%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index gained 1.8%.
Elsewhere, we have some new additions to the White House portfolio...
Last Thursday, the Commerce Department announced it was awarding $2 billion to be split between nine different companies in the quantum-computing sector. In exchange for the grants, the U.S. will take an equity stake in each of the nine companies.
Five of the nine companies are publicly traded: IBM (IBM), Globalfoundries (GFS), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Infleqtion (INFQ), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI).
IBM will receive $1 billion, and Globalfoundries will receive $375 million, both to build manufacturing plants for quantum chips. The remaining funds will be split between seven quantum-computing startups.
Like with many of the other companies in the "White House portfolio," the government cited national security as the primary driver for the investment. From the Commerce Department's press release...
Quantum computing has significant implications for national defense, advanced materials and biopharmaceutical discovery, financial modeling, and energy systems. A strong domestic quantum ecosystem is essential for U.S. national security, technological resilience and long-term strategic leadership.
Put simply, quantum computing runs much faster than traditional computing because the technology can run thousands of operations simultaneously. That poses a security problem when you consider that our digital security today is built for traditional computing.
As our colleague and Market Maven editor Gabe Marshank explained in a special report for subscribers last October...
The result is that while a normal computer might take days, years, or even decades to break into a locked digital door... a quantum computer could do it in seconds. That has some troubling implications.
Nearly everything on the Internet today – your passwords, credit cards, bank information, text messages, even military secrets – is protected by locks that are only "safe" because they take too long to break with regular computers. That's not the case with quantum computing.
The quantum sector is still in its infancy. But with the security implications, it has the potential to be a massive market. Gabe wrote that his back-of-the-napkin math suggests it will become a $2.5 trillion sector.
That would likely mean more gains for the White House portfolio...
The White House started taking stakes in companies last August (with a 10% stake in Intel), and the government now has equity in 11 different public companies. And, nine months in, the portfolio is doing extremely well.
Here's an updated version of a table we've shared a few times in previous Digests...
Only one of the government's positions – its stake in critical materials company Korea Zinc (KRX: 010130) – is in the red. But MP Materials (MP) has more than doubled, and Intel has soared nearly 500% since the government established its stake and put an emphasis on developing chipmaking infrastructure in the U.S.
A focus on U.S. chipmaking is a big reason why our colleague Dave Lashmet recommended Intel to his Stansberry Venture Technology subscribers in May 2023. Subscribers who followed his advice are sitting on nearly 300% gains in three years.
Of course, the White House's decisions are influencing these returns, as investors know these companies have the backing of the federal government. We saw this with quantum stocks last week...
D-Wave Quantum, Infleqtion, and Rigetti Computing shares each surged more than 30% the day the Commerce Department announced the grants. Even IBM, a company with a $232 billion market cap, jumped more than 10%.
And then there's the president's personal account...
Here's a new wrinkle to the White House portfolio story...
Earlier this month, a filing from the Office of Government Ethics showed that President Donald Trump (either personally or through a financial adviser) placed more than 3,600 trades in the first quarter.
And a few of those trades were in companies that the president has mentioned publicly...
For one, Trump bought at least $1 million (and as much as $5 million) in Dell Technologies (DELL), with the last trade coming on March 23. That puts his entry price somewhere between $125 and $160 per share.
Last week, Dell's stock shot up to a new all-time high above $260 per share after Trump said to "go out and buy" Dell computers during an event at the White House.
The president's account was also shown to have added up to more than $6 million in Nvidia (NVDA) shares while Trump approved the company's chips for export licenses to China, asked China to open up its economy to companies like Nvidia, and described Nvidia's CEO as the "Great Jensen Huang."
Those are just a couple of the president's trades. He also bought much smaller stakes in defense contractors after the start of the conflict with Iran, as well as placing a buy of up to $5 million in an S&P 500 fund days after the Iran conflict began.
The real lesson here...
We could go on, but in the grand scheme, what matters for your portfolio is that the government is putting a "floor" under some companies' shares... and providing a tailwind for certain sectors – from emerging ones like quantum computing to long-established ones like national defense to those in between, like semiconductors and critical minerals.
As our colleague and Extreme Value editor Dan Ferris has written, the White House is picking the winners – and letting investors know. You'll probably see some folks follow the White House portfolio to try to book short-term profits.
But we're not sharing this portfolio so you can go out and buy all these stocks right now. Rather than chase these announcement spikes, the real lesson for long-term investors is to "get there" before they happen... and ride the catalysts higher.
Intel is the clearest example. As we mentioned, our colleague Dave Lashmet recommended it to Venture Technology subscribers nearly two years before the government's equity stake sent the stock soaring.
The pattern is repeating itself across semiconductors, critical minerals, quantum computing, and defense ‒ sectors we've published plenty of research on over the years.
Government policy is an added tailwind for any of these bullish theses, but the biggest, most sustained gains are coming to those who have long been well positioned.
In short, keep looking for the next big opportunities while also protecting your gains as risks mount and volatility persists.
New 52-week highs (as of 5/22/26): Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Arm Holdings (ARM), ASML (ASML), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Datadog (DDOG), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), KraneShares Global Humanoid Robotics and Physical AI Index Fund (KOID), Linde (LIN), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy Fund (PBW), ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM), State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), Texas Instruments (TXN), VeriSign (VRSN), and State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor Fund (XSD).
We hope you enjoyed the Memorial Day weekend. Our mailbag returns today with a nice piece of general feedback and a question about this year's Stansberry Research conference... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"I have been able to make many profitable decisions using the information I received from articles you have provided to me over the last 18-20 years!" – Subscriber Sidney G.
"What are the dates for the next Alliance Conference and where is it going to be held?" – Stansberry Alliance member Wendelin B.
Corey McLaughlin comment: This year's conference will be from September 28-30 in Las Vegas... Alliance members, of course, have exclusive access to "Alliance Day"... and we've recently opened up registration for the entire event. Click here for more details.
In addition to your favorite Stansberry Research editors, this year's event will also feature presentations from "The Fonz," the one and only Henry Winkler... Dr. David Agus, a world-renowned physician and biomedical researcher... and many other guests.
It should be another terrific event filled with great investing ideas and distinguished company, and we're already looking forward to it. You can find more information and get tickets here.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
May 26, 2026