This Oil Spike Could Be a 'Screaming Buy'
The 'escorts' are coming... Weighing volatility... Why this oil spike is actually bullish... Looking at history... Expect more 'chop' ahead... The world's most popular stock has done nothing... Profiting during any market environment...
The 'escorts' could be coming...
As the war in Iran stretches beyond two weeks, we're nearly halfway through President Donald Trump's initial timeline for the conflict.
And now, it looks like help is on the way for the volatile oil market and the tankers that carry the "black gold" from the Middle East.
Over the weekend, we read reports that at least one additional U.S. warship and possibly 2,000 Marines based in Japan – including the USS Tripoli and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit – are headed to the Middle East. And yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported...
The Trump administration as soon as this week plans to announce that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition that will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which runs along the Iranian coast, U.S. officials said. They are still discussing, however, whether those operations would begin before or after hostilities end.
The White House declined to comment on the expected announcement, which could shift depending on battlefield conditions. Publicly, many countries have been noncommittal to such an escort mission until hostilities cease, given the risks involved.
In a Sunday joint statement, the foreign ministers of the U.K. and members of the Gulf Cooperation Council – a body representing the interests of six countries in the Gulf region – said GCC states "have the right to take all necessary measures to defend their security and stability and protect their territories, citizens and residents."
Connecting the dots, it sounds like tanker military "escorts" will begin once the missiles and Iranian drones stop flying.
In the meantime, volatility continues...
Oil prices were lower today, with West Texas Intermediate down 5% and Brent crude, the international benchmark, down 3%. Meanwhile, major U.S. and foreign stock indexes were higher. The benchmark S&P 500 Index closed 1% higher.
But oil prices are still up about 40% since the start of the attacks in late February. That has rightfully raised fear in the market. After all, if about a fifth of global oil and gas supply is interrupted, businesses and economies will suffer.
The CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX"), considered by some to be the market's "fear gauge," hit 35 on March 9 – its highest level since the market's Liberation Day panic last April.
The VIX measures bullish and bearish options bets on the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. The indicator typically rises when traders get "fearful" and are looking to buy protection with puts (bearish bets).
As longtime readers know, these fearful times tend to create long-term buying opportunities.
Still, while the VIX was down 13% to less than 24 today, we can't know for sure whether this spike is done. Volatility has been trending higher since the end of December. Plus, high-yield credit spreads, another measure of market worry, are trending higher, too.
We're closely watching the credit market and what's going on in Iran to see if new risks emerge. However, if you can look ahead just a bit, the market outlook does look brighter...
A bullish sign...
As geopolitics, oil spikes, and volatility make the headlines, Stansberry Research senior editor Brett Eversole recently looked back at similar history to see what could happen next.
As Brett wrote in last week's edition of True Wealth Systems Market Extremes, an oil rise like what we just saw (with prices jumping 5%-plus for two straight days) was actually a bullish signal for the market.
These rare setups led to volatility and muted returns in the short term, but the market typically held up fine over the medium and longer term. In fact, Brett says these oil price spikes turned out to be "a screaming buy signal for U.S. stocks." As Brett wrote...
The operations in the Middle East sent oil prices up by nearly $30 a barrel, before giving back some of that rise.
Most folks would say this is a reason to sell. But history disagrees.
To see it, I looked at each unique case of oil jumping 5%-plus for two straight days. That's a rare setup... It has only happened 11 other times since 1986. But as I said before, it's a screaming buy signal for stocks. Take a look...
This gives us some important hints of what to expect in the coming months.
First, expect volatility in the short term. After oil prices spike, folks don't know what'll happen next. That uncertainty drives the three-month return down to a paltry 0.8%, well below the typical three-month return.
By six months, folks see that the worst-case scenario hasn't played out. And markets start catching up to their typical six-month return, with a 3.5% gain.
The one-year period is where things get interesting. Stocks were typically up 18.6% a year later. That's a healthy return... and about double the typical one-year gain.
Few would expect these results, especially with today's frightening headlines. But history filters out that noise and tells us what we can actually expect.
Sean Michael Cummings on the True Wealth team also notes that there is precedent for this oil spike to be short-lived, based on past geopolitical history in the Persian Gulf. Sean looked at the Gulf War, of course, and an earlier conflict in the 1980s...
In 1984, Iraq attacked Kharg Island, one of Iran's key oil terminals...
The attack was part of a string of oil-related strikes in the Persian Gulf. And it caused Iran to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz off to Iraq and its allies.
This channel through the Persian Gulf carries about one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Take a look...
At the time, the Iranian navy lined the bay with mines and sank Kuwaiti tankers. That led to a big spike in oil prices through 1986.
But then, the U.S. Navy busted the blockade...
U.S. military boats guided Kuwaiti vessels through the strait, starting in 1987. The initiative was called "Operation Earnest Will." And oil prices rapidly retreated. Take a look...
The operation effectively circumvented the blockade. And oil prices collapsed as soon as it started.
We saw a similar round trip in oil prices during the Gulf War.
In the short term, expect more 'chop' ahead...
As we noted last Thursday, despite a 40% jump in oil prices since the start of the war in Iran, the S&P 500 isn't down much from its all-time high set in January.
As of today, the benchmark index is only 4% away from a new record high, and is trading about 1% above its longer-term, 200-day moving average. This could be a good sign (if the technical support level holds), or a warning sign of more downside.
Until there's a clearer resolution to oil supply and the Middle East, we can expect more "chop" in the market ahead, instead of a clear trend higher or lower.
For long-term investors, this might be a challenging environment. But for traders like Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond, it's an opportunity to profit...
So far this year, Greg has closed eight trades in Ten Stock Trader for an average gain of 40%, and he's eyeing up more opportunities for the weeks and months ahead. As Greg wrote in his Weekly Market Outlook this morning...
As we approach the April/May time frame, I'm tracking a combination of setups... in the S&P 500 Index, as well as semiconductors, banks, and industrials...
Some areas of the market may hold strong, while others may make lower highs. In both cases, we can build strategic trades.
As an example of the type of setups Greg is watching, look at this chart of AI darling Nvidia (NVDA).
The red line represents NVDA's 200-day moving average (a measure of a long-term trend), the blue line is the 50-day moving average (a shorter-term indicator), and the red and green candlesticks indicate NVDA's price action each day since September...
As Greg wrote this morning...
Since topping out in October, NVDA has gone absolutely nowhere. Keep in mind that this is the largest stock in the world by market cap. And it has been trading sideways for nearly half a year.
While Greg says "overall, the semiconductor sector is looking pretty weak," he's not recommending a trade on Nvidia or semiconductors just yet. But he is getting ready by looking at charts like these.
Greg is a master of profiting from all kinds of market environments – like during the COVID-19 crash, the 2022 bear market, and the banking crisis in early 2023. Folks who followed Greg's recommendations since he joined Stansberry Research in 2017 could have doubled their money 41 different times.
Right now, he says the market is setting up for another big move in the months ahead – and you can profit. You can find all the details in Greg's free 2026 Market Crash Summit here. But this is your last chance. Greg's presentation goes offline tonight at midnight Eastern time.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/13/26): Antero Midstream (AM), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BP (BP), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Duke Energy (DUK), EOG Resources (EOG), Equinor (EQNR), K+S (KPLUY), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Matador Resources (MTDR), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and ExxonMobil (XOM).
A quiet mailbag today. What's on your mind? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
March 16, 2026