Austin Root

Three Tools to Add to Your Investing Tool Kit

How to improve your investing decisions (guaranteed)... Three tools to add to your investing tool kit... Why great products don't always make for great stocks... Look at your personal finances like an investor...


Sometimes, I (Austin Root) struggle to follow even simple instructions...

The first time Porter asked me to write the Digest, he gave me one straightforward piece of advice...

This is important: The secret to writing a good daily letter to our readers is to focus on one idea. Whatever you write about, just tell them – simply and directly – one thing that will help them make better decisions.

I took this advice to heart when I wrote my first Digest in May (which you can read here). But this time, it seemed... harder.

I know what I want to show you. It's a simple set of skills I first learned in business school... and used constantly during my time managing investments for a variety of Wall Street firms. These skills are guaranteed to help you make better investing decisions. Best of all, they're easy to learn and available to anyone with an Internet connection.

But few individual investors know about them, let alone realize how they can improve their investing decisions.

My problem was, every time I started laying out these skills, my ideas took me in too many different directions. Until I thought about my grandfather...

'You gotta have the right tools'...

When I was a kid, I used to spend hours helping my grandfather with "home-maintenance projects." During these tasks, he often said that half the solution to any job was having the right tools.

Imagine trying to hook up the plumbing for a bathroom sink. You can spend an hour scraping your knuckles and cursing if you try to do it with a simple set of pliers. But break out a plumber's wrench, with its long neck and angled head, and you can hook up those pipes in a matter of minutes.

That's exactly how I feel about investing as well. To consistently make great investment decisions over the long term, you need to have the right tools. And to me, one of the most valuable tools in any investor tool kit is a basic understanding of corporate financial statements.

Now, before I get started, chances are good that you're probably thinking, "Why do I need to get into the weeds and look at the financial statements? I buy the stocks of companies that produce products or services that I understand, use, and love, like Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN)."

You're right... Putting your money into companies that make products ingrained in our daily lives is an excellent first step in identifying great investments. But it isn't always foolproof...

Sometimes, great products don't translate into great stocks...

My family is a loyal user of Tide laundry detergent and Campbell's chicken noodle soup, both the leading products and brands in their categories. But the stocks for both parent companies – Procter & Gamble (PG) and Campbell Soup (CPB), respectively – have been lousy performers... Both stocks are down since the beginning of 2015, while the S&P 500 has soared more than 40%.

When you look at the financial statements of these companies, the reasons for the underperformance become clear. Procter & Gamble's profits and free cash flow have declined, and Campbell Soup's balance sheet is loaded with more debt each year, with little to show for it. Understanding financial statements may have helped you avoid these stocks.

So what are the key tools?

Let's first start with the balance sheet...

Among the three main financial statements, this one gives a snapshot of a company at a specific period of time. It shows what a company owns (the assets), what it owes (the liabilities), and the difference between those two numbers (the net equity). All else equal, you'd want to invest in a company with a larger asset base, fewer liabilities, and, therefore, a greater net equity value.

The balance sheet is sometimes called the "stock" statement, in that it takes stock of what a company owns and owes at a moment in time. The other two statements – the income statement and the statement of cash flows – are often called the "flow" statements. They measure items generated over a specified period of time. For example, an annual report will show the flows generated over the course of a year.

In general, the income statement measures how well a company is performing...

It tells you how much total business a company generated (its revenues) and subtracts from this what the company spent (its expenses). The net result is its profits, or net income. Again, all else equal, you'd prefer to invest in a company with higher revenues, lower expenses, and, therefore, higher profits (and a higher profit margin).

However, many investors miss one key nuance about the income statement. Many of its line items are smoothed out (or shown on an "accrual" basis), rather than shown on a true cash basis. This is done, in part, to account for large, lumpy items that may not occur every period but represent an ongoing part of the business.

For instance, consider a software company that sells its customers three-year licenses to its software. It receives the cash up front, but provides services (and incurs expenses) over the course of those next three years. If the company recorded all the revenues in year one, this would overstate ongoing profits in that year, and then understate profits in years two and three. Instead, the income statement books the revenues in the period in which it's earned, not when the cash is received.

Smoothing this and other lumpy items out allows us to meaningfully compare a company's performance from period to period. That's important, because investors want to see not only how well a company performed this year, but also how that compares with previous years. This comparison provides rate-of-change information that can be as important – or more important – than the absolute number itself.

Let's take a look at tech companies Xerox (XRX) and Nvidia (NVDA). Both companies booked roughly $10 billion in revenues last year. But Nvidia's market capitalization is more than 20 times larger than that of Xerox. Much of that is due to Nvidia's 40%-plus revenue growth, versus Xerox's 5% revenue decline last year.

This smoothing effect is also what makes the statement of cash flows important...

Many investors overlook this third statement, but longtime Stansberry Research readers know we consider it "mission critical." That's because the cash flow statement shows how much actual cash a company generated.

Of course, this might make numbers jump around from year to year, if a company spends a lot one year on a new factory and nothing on such capital expenditures the next year, for example. But at the end of the day, we want to know about the cash. And the more cash a business generates over time, the more valuable the company is.

Another reason the statement of cash flows is so important is because it provides the quickest and best way to determine a company's free cash flow ("FCF"). Many analysts and editors at Stansberry rely on FCF to evaluate whether a company's stock is attractive. Free cash flow is what's left after the company pays for all expenses and outlays. That makes it a great measure of the excess cash a company generates that can be used to enrich shareholders through dividends and buybacks, or to invest in incremental growth.

When you want to calculate a company's FCF, go to the statement of cash flows. Take the "net cash from operating activities" and subtract the capital expenditures. Again, the higher this number (and the higher FCF as a percent of revenues), the better, all else equal.

The next time you think about investing in a company, take a hard look at its financial statements...

Print out this "cheat sheet" summary of the three financial statements to have at your side as you go through the numbers.

It won't happen overnight, but a better understanding of these financial statements will be a valuable addition to your investing tool kit. You'll have a better perspective on how a business operates. You'll be better at avoiding "good products, bad financial statements" scenarios.

This deeper level of understanding should help you ultimately make better investment decisions, particularly in times of heightened market fear or greed.

I almost forgot to share the other major benefit to understanding financial statements...

This, by the way, is why I said earlier that I struggle with the simple instruction of keeping the Digest to just one idea... But it's important to share. In fact, for many of you, I bet this second benefit is actually more valuable than the first. To get this benefit, all you need to do is start thinking of your own life in terms of financial statements.

Just like the ones used by businesses, personal financial statements equip you with better information about your overall well-being. At a basic level, this will help you with budgeting and managing large purchases (like a car or house), and will even provide a more accurate assessment of your overall financial condition. Taking them a step further, you can use these financial statements not only to measure your finances, but to actually improve them.

For instance, once you've laid out your personal balance sheet, you can begin to optimize it. Pay down high-cost debt. Increase your investments in assets that generate better rates of return.

Or you could use your personal income statement or statement of cash flows to better analyze how much of your income goes toward various types of expenses... And then adjust your spending levels accordingly.

That doesn't mean you need to cut out all fun and frivolous expenses, or eliminate all large assets that tend not to hold their value (like cars or boats). By all means, enjoy your wealth and the fruits of your labor. But I am saying it's time you become aware of how your personal financial statements stack up. You may find some ways to improve your finances that have no impact on your daily life... And take it from me, finding and eliminating those expenses is a great joy in and of itself.

Familiarize yourself with financial statements. I'm confident doing so will provide you with invaluable tools to help make you a more informed, better investor, and improve your personal financial operations. These are two keys to improving your net worth over the long run.

New 52-week highs (as of 7/13/18): Amazon (AMZN), Becton Dickinson (BDX), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), ProShares Ultra Technology Fund (ROM), Sysco (SYY), VF Corporation (VFC), and Verisign (VRSN).

The mailbag is overflowing with responses to Porter's Friday Digest request. We'd love to hear from you, too. Please send us a note at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"First time writing in but I have been with Stansberry since about 2008. My first subscription was The 12% Letter. That was later followed up with a subscription to Stansberry's Investment Advisory, then the SIA lifetime membership, True Wealth, Portfolio Solutions: The Capital Portfolio and finally my Alliance Membership.

"For years I read other members stating the Alliance Membership was the best money they ever spent. I have to agree with them, my Alliance Membership more than paid for itself in the first year. I like all the different viewpoints Stansberry has to offer and the only way to experience them all is with the Alliance Membership.

"I loved your Friday Digest from July 13. Over the last two years I have been overhauling my portfolio to become more an investor than a gambler. My two largest holdings are Apple and Disney followed up with Hershey and Travelers. I have held Apple since your recommendation from several years ago when you said to buy it below $400 (pre 7 for 1 split). I put 25% of my assets in Apple when it dipped below $400, I know you likely would not have recommended that but your writing gave me the confidence and conviction to do so. My favorite investments these days are the capital efficient companies that I will likely never have to sell. I'm also liking your Golden Triangle research. I have invested in all of your Golden Triangle picks so far with results far outpacing the market. It's still early but I believe many of your Golden stock picks are going to [be] the home runs in my portfolio. Thank you for showing me the proper way to look at investing." – Paid-up Stansberry Alliance member Tom W.

"Hi Porter, I have been meaning to write since your last request for comments on Stansberry's Credit Opportunities (SCO). I understood immediately what you were looking for when you launched this service and I have purchased all of the recommendations that I could get into (sad to say that some were not available below the buy up to price) and have had wonderful results. The same with the Golden Triangle stocks and the insurance companies. All great services.

"With the other content, I do my best to read all of the research (I am an Alliance member) and invest in the stories that make the most sense to me. Along with those suggestions, I do use some simple technical analysis for entries and adding to positions when they pullback to lower prices.

"Two of my best investment returns have come from when you were 'pounding the table' on a specific stock in this Digest. The first was Apple ('I would be buying when Apple comes down to $400 (pre-split)) and McDonalds ('cheapest it has been in years' when it was in the 80s/low 90s). I am looking forward to the next one.

"A suggestion for a new service would be an addition to SCO. Looking towards retirement, I would like to see you use your bond data base to come up with suggestions for a bond ladder for income purposes over the next 10-20 years. Just a thought. Thank you for the years of great research, take care." – Paid-up subscriber Mike B.

"Very informative. I am a lifetime member to most of your services and this was concise and to the point. I will try more of your Stansberry's Credit Opportunities selections in the future. Thanks again." – Paid-up subscriber Mike C.

"Some deep thinking with abundance of knowledge. makes for some very exciting reading. I like your way of presenting the facts. Thanks." – Paid-up subscriber Tom H.

"I retired 2 years ago and I am on a tight budget. I read Income Intelligence, Retirement Millionaire, True Wealth, and the Stansberry Digest. You opened my eyes to how big the world really is and how much goes on in the financial world. I love what you do and how you do it." – Paid-up subscriber Kathy G.

"Porter, I have been a paid up Alliance member for about 3 years. Wow, I have learned more than I would have thought. Hell, I even have an MHA (health care version of MBA) and I learn something every week from you guys! Thank you.

"I love Docs options info, loving the Golden Triangle stuff, starting to expand my p&c holdings. Today I did my first Stansberry Alpha trade. You and your team are doing great stuff, please don't change a thing. I look forward to meeting you in October." – Paid-up Stansberry Alliance member Bill F.

"Your work has been a Godsend. I have too much in gold/silver stocks. Probably too much in China stocks. Probably about the right amount in uranium stocks. Probably about the right amount in oil stocks. I do have positions in both your Magic stock suggestions and your P&C insurers but probably not enough. I have tried many of your publication recommendations and have slowly developed a comfort with most. I think Stansberry Alpha is an extraordinary approach to investing. As I roll out of some of my speculations, I think that will be my preferred style. Something about the limited exposure and limited time of risk appeals to me. I really appreciate the amount of work and effort everyone at Stansberry Research produces for my use. It is invaluable. Thank you." – Paid-up subscriber Mitchell F.

"Hi Porter, I don't know if you will read this. However, I want to inform you that in my 30+ years of investing, I've never had a service such as Stansberry Research that offers such consistent valuable investment advice. I read your recommendations etc nightly w/o fail. I see the true worth because my portfolio is living proof. Thank you." – Paid-up subscriber Marc D.

Porter comment: Thanks, Marc. I really appreciate the note.

"I am a Stansberry Choice subscriber, with lifetime memberships to any 3 products that I choose. I had already bought a lifetime subscription to [Stansberry's] Investment Advisory prior, which I chose to keep separate. So I have 4 publications at my fingertips. The four that I currently subscribe to are Investment Advisory (SIA), True Wealth Systems (TWS), True Wealth Opportunities: China (TWCO) and Stansberry's Credit Opportunities (SCO). As an aside, my portfolio would have to be about 10x bigger in order to be able to pursue any more publication's recommendations. (Hint to the sales department! 😉 ) On multiple occasions, I have found myself short of cash to invest in recommendations that sound like good opportunities, and I only put a maximum 0.5% (1/2 %) of my portfolio AT RISK in any position (meaning anywhere between 2% and 4% of portfolio position size, depending on position volatility and stop loss that I plan on following)!

"By far, the one I'm most happy with is SCO, with one exception (which I'll get to). First off, I had never purchased an individual corporate bond prior to subscribing. Not sure why, other than I figured that the better returns would be in stocks, and that I had no knowledge of how to analyze a distressed bond. (I had thought about it, but thought they were too risky, which with my lack of knowledge, was probably right!) Once SCO learned me the benefits (there is no teaching, right?!), and I gained trust in Stansberry in general (which wasn't that hard), the idea of buying distressed bonds with a high probability of paying in full made a WHOLE lot of sense. When the Golden Triangle strategy was presented, I immediately saw the potential! ALL four of my Golden Triangle positions are up, some substantially! Three of the 5 bonds are up, but I'm not worried about the other 2. I expect them to pay in full, which will be great returns over the holding period. My only complaint about SCO is that is often difficult to get into a bond or Golden Triangle stock because the price moves higher – sometimes substantially – within minutes of an SCO publication, and I'm at work when that happens.

"I have to say that SIA is #2 on my list. I have noticed that there have been more P&C recommendations lately, signaling Porter's move toward more stable, profitable stocks, and getting defensive. I think the timing is great. As is not uncommon, Porter can be early in his calls, but when we're so close to a meltdown (even if it's 2 years away – or maybe only 2 months?), a conservative stance is prudent. Elite/Trophy/Efficient businesses are currently the largest percent of my holdings, with cash a very close second (but less than 30% combined; and a fair amount of that cash really can't go into individual stocks).

"The jury is still out on the two True Wealth publications. (I have only been a Choice subscriber for about 6 months...) Some have done very well; others, not so much. I do agree that 'hated and in an uptrend' certainly makes sense, as does the inflow of cash into China A shares for the stated reasons. I hope history proves it correct! 🙂

"All of the above says nothing about the learning that I have achieved since first hearing about Stansberry! Prior, I had set stop losses, but then buckled because I thought things would change. That cost me far more than I care to mention! That happens no more. I do use weekly stops instead of daily (which has proven exceptionally profitable for MLNX!) because I don't always have the time to monitor the market daily, but other than that, I follow my stops religiously these days. THANK YOU, PORTER (et al).

"There have been other strategies that I have learned along the way as well. Selling Puts to get into a position at below market price, which has been moderately successful for me, is one. It's not uncommon that I do not end up buying the underlying stock, but that means that I pocket the premium with no further risk (read: no downside and 100% profit). If I could somehow predict stock prices one month out, selling puts would be the only thing that I would do! 🙂

"Again, I'd like to reiterate that I'm very happy with my investment in Stansberry, both in dollars and time (and it does take time!). And again, thanks, Stansberry Research!" – Paid-up subscriber Carl S.

Porter comment: Carl, thank you for taking the time to write. And, bravo for learning the hard lessons regarding position sizes and trailing stops.

Regards,

Austin Root
Baltimore, Maryland
July 16, 2018

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