How Autonomous Trucking Could Drive a $600 Billion Freight Disruption by 2035

Driverless taxis roam the streets of Los Angeles and other parts of California. If you live near Houston or Dallas, Texas, those tractor trailers you see speeding along I-45 might also be self-driving.

It feels futuristic and sci-fi-ish, but autonomous trucking is a reality. And the autonomous freight industry could become a $600 billion market by 2035.

Autonomous trucking is potentially world changing. The advantages of nonstop, 24/7 freight operations, enhanced safety, fuel efficiency, and substantial operational savings are impossible to ignore.

Investors who get in on the autonomous trucking market now – especially the companies developing and deploying the technology – could reap the benefits.

Today, we'll take a close look at self-driving trucks, as well as the companies in this space that investors will want to keep on their radar.

Why Freight Is Ripe for Automation: The Economic Case for Driverless Freight

Trucks carry around 70% of the country's total freight by tonnage and about 73% of freight by value. The freight trucking market in the U.S. is projected to reach $532.7 billion in 2025. Globally, that figure is almost $2.2 trillion.

Trucks serve as the initial means of transport and the final delivery of everything from electronic goods to food. They're critical to our economy.

But trucking is an expensive operation.

First, there's the labor. In 2024, 3.6 million people drove trucks for a living in the U.S. The average salary for a heavy truck or tractor trailer driver in 2024 was $57,440, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Using those numbers, American truck drivers earned more than $200 billion in 2024.

Then there are what the trucking industry calls "deadhead" miles. These are the miles trucks drive without loads. And they're quite costly to carriers in terms of fuel, maintenance, and lost revenue. For example...

• In 2023, an average 16.3% of the nearly 330 billion total miles driven by single-unit and combination trucks in the U.S. were considered deadhead miles.

• That's nearly 54 billion deadhead miles driven in 2023. For perspective, 54 billion miles is about 580 times the distance from the Earth to the sun. That's how many miles empty trucks traveled in one year.

• Trucking companies estimate they lose between 50 cents and $1 for every deadhead mile driven. That equals between $27 billion and $54 billion lost in 2023.

Based on those numbers, it's easy to see why the trucking industry is pushing for automation.

Research from McKinsey shows that autonomous trucking will reduce costs per mile by 42%. Those savings come from reduced driver salaries, less fuel consumption, and fewer projected accidents. (Fewer accidents could save the trucking industry around $100 million a year on medical expenses alone.) Autonomous trucks could save the American trucking industry between $85 billion and $125 billion overall.

The lure of those savings convinced freight and logistics giants United Parcel Service (UPS), FedEx (FDX), and Amazon (AMZN) to partner with companies that operate driverless trucking fleets. Now, self-driving truck fleets are traveling on highways across California, Arizona, and Texas.

Let's take a closer look at a couple of the companies behind self-driving truck technology.

Companies to Watch in Autonomous Trucking

Two of the most important players in autonomous trucking operate behind the scenes. Aurora Innovation (AUR) and Kodiak AI (KDK) create the technology that makes autonomous trucks possible. And they're aiming to make self-driving truck fleets the norm.

Aurora Innovation (AUR)

Aurora Innovation's business focuses solely on the development of autonomous systems for heavy-duty trucks and other vehicles.

Aurora is considered a pureplay leader in autonomous long-haul freight trucking. The Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania-based company was an early entrant into self-driving vehicles. It was founded in 2017 by industry experts including the former head of Alphabet's (GOOGL) self-driving team.

Source: Aurora

Since its inception, Aurora has focused on developing Aurora Driver. This platform combines data services, hardware, and software. And it can be integrated directly into a trucking or logistics company's existing freight operations.

Aurora Driver addresses safety by using sensors that feature lidar (light detection and ranging), radar, and cameras to deliver 360-degree perception on the road. And its software is backed by Verifiable AI, which ensures the Aurora Driver system follows road rules.

Aurora's technology and autonomous systems have attracted plenty of partnerships, strengthening its position as the industry's pureplay leader.

Aurora counts FedEx, Uber Technologies (UBER), Werner Enterprises (WERN), Ryder System (R), and Schneider National (SNDR) as its logistics partners. These alliances serve several purposes for Aurora: They help advance self-driving freight solutions, support Aurora's deployment of autonomous technology, and spur collaboration with carriers to use driverless trucks.

Aurora has also forged partnerships with automakers like Toyota Motor (TM) to develop and mass-produce self-driving vehicles. With Volvo Trucks, Aurora is building the first commercial SAE Level 4 autonomous trucks for the U.S. market. And its partnership with Paccar (PCAR) will place Aurora Driver in Peterbilt and Kenworth vehicles to further commercialize autonomous trucking.

Nvidia (NVDA) is an Aurora partner as well. The chip giant provides its Thor System-on-a-Chip ("SoC") hardware to power Aurora's self-driving software for autonomous trucks. And Aurora's collaboration with auto-parts manufacturer Continental will develop, build, and scale autonomous-trucking hardware kits for Aurora Driver.

This is all huge for Aurora. But there's a major caveat if you're looking to invest. Despite its many alliances and innovations, Aurora is a young company still finding its footing. That's reflected in our proprietary Stansberry Score.

While its financials are middle of the pack, its overall "D" score is mostly a product of its capital efficiency, which receives an "F." This is a result of billions of dollars spent on research and development (R&D), which makes sense. The technology is new. An innovation like this is expensive. But it does mean that Aurora has reported negative earnings every year it has been a public company. Reported earnings in 2024 were negative $748 million.

Even with its low grade, Aurora is worth watching as autonomous trucking keeps growing. And there is clearly growth.

Aurora is already operating routes in Texas. This includes a commercial service between Dallas and Houston, as well as a new route between Fort Worth and El Paso. Aurora also opened a terminal in Phoenix, Arizona with plans to pilot a route between there and Fort Worth.

Kodiak AI (KDK)

Aurora is generally considered the frontrunner in autonomous trucking. But competitor Kodiak AI is another pureplay innovator that has positioned itself as a strong contender in the industry.

Source: Kodiak AI

Kodiak's self-driving technology shares some similarities with its rival's. Kodiak Drive combines advanced AI with modular hardware to create a scalable autonomous-driving system. Its proprietary SensorPods – equipped with lidar, radar, and cameras – provide Kodiak Driver with a 360-degree view of its driving environment. And SensorPods can be easily swapped and integrated into most vehicles.

Like Aurora's Verifiable AI, Kodiak Driver uses a single AI system that makes real-time driving decisions. Notably, Kodiak has successfully tested its technology across different terrains and weather conditions. That includes real-life environments such as highways, surface streets, and mountain passes in extreme heat, snow, and rain. Operational success is crucial if Kodiak's autonomous trucking is to succeed on a larger scale.

Today, Kodiak Driver can be integrated into Class 8 long-haul commercial trucks and commercial trucking and delivery vehicles. And those trucks can literally drive around the clock. They often only stop to refuel, pick up loads, and receive maintenance. That equals more goods moved in less time, with less fuel used along the way.

Kodiak also offers tools to build a full-service autonomous-trucking solution. Kodiak OnTime can integrate Kodiak Driver with existing fleet management, transportation management, and yard operation systems. It also provides status updates and real-time tracking. Kodiak Network is an expansive, autonomous freight-lane system that covers 20,000 miles of routes across the country. It also connects the hubs and truck ports that launch and land trucks and exchange loads, as well as the service providers that refuel, change tires, and perform standard maintenance. And the Kodiak OpsCenter allows its operation specialists to monitor each truck 24/7.

Kodiak delivered its first driverless trucks to Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) in December 2024. Since then, those autonomous trucks have delivered proppant (sand, essentially) to drill sites across private roads in West Texas and eastern New Mexico. It has been successful thus far... Atlas has ordered 100 Kodiak driverless trucks to automate its supply chain.

Kodiak is expanding its operations with a new truck port, which will manage driverless routes between Houston, Dallas, and Oklahoma City. And it's building more partnerships:

• IKEA: This pilot program is a 300-mile autonomous delivery route between a warehouse and one of IKEA's stores in Texas.

• Martin Brower: Kodiak's partnership with the global supply-chain solutions provider will deliver refrigerated freight on autonomous trucks to quick-service restaurants.

• Bridgestone, J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Maersk, U.S. Xpress, Werner Enterprises, and several other logistics and trucking companies: These businesses will integrate Kodiak's autonomous technology into their long-haul trucking operations to improve efficiency, safety, and reliability.

Kodiak AI debuted on the Nasdaq exchange in September 2025 through a merger with Ares Acquisition Corporation II. So, its stock is in its very early stages. That's why we don't yet have a Stansberry Score for KDK.

What we can tell you is that its capital efficiency is currently poor. Over the past year, Kodiak AI generated $16.1 million in revenue. But it also sustained more than $520 million in losses. That contributes to its "F" grade in capital efficiency.

As for valuation, there's no point comparing the stock to the company's earnings. Remember, it has none. But looking at the approximately $16 million in revenue, it implies KDK trades at a trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of more than 70 times. That's a very steep price tag, at least based on current financials.

But markets are always forward-looking. And while the valuation looks steep when compared with recent results, analysts are expecting growth. In the third quarter of 2025, Kodiak reported revenue of $770,000. That figure is expected to be nearly $3.8 million by this time next year, or nearly 400% year-over-year growth.

Kodiak AI is still spending significant cash on R&D as well as expansion. To date, the company has put $30.1 million toward R&D in 2025. And Kodiak is banking on that investment to pay off as it continues expanding its operations and deploying new technologies.

Patient investors could be rewarded if the industry grows as expected.

But investors also must factor in the risks.

What Could Slow the Growth of Autonomous Trucking

We know that autonomous trucking is happening. How quickly it expands is what we don't know.

Little to no consistency regarding state and national laws surrounding self-driving vehicles is one major hurdle. Right now, states are creating their own laws. But the federal government is pushing for national standards. In July, U.S. Representative Vince Fong introduced the AMERICA DRIVES Act. This bill seeks to create a national standard for autonomous commercial trucking.

This standard would allow driverless Level 4 and 5 trucks to operate across state lines. But, even if this legislation passes, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration would have until 2027 to update the rules for autonomous trucks. So, this isn't going to happen overnight.

Beyond laws, the cost to retrofit existing truck fleets with autonomous-driving sensors and outfit new trucks with this technology is very high. The average retrofit for advanced driver-assistance systems costs around $30,000 per truck. And that could balloon to more than $100,000 for the installation of fully autonomous technology.

Getting most of the estimated 13 million commercial trucks in the U.S. to operate autonomously would cost between $300 billion and $1.3 trillion, depending on the number of trucks. For context, the high end of that range is more than the annual revenue of Walmart (WMT) and Amazon... combined. The low end is comparable with Apple's (AAPL) annual revenue.

Clearly, there are some major hurdles to overcome before autonomous trucking grows into a nationwide operation. What we've seen so far – gradual adoption in specific regions, with hub-to-hub highway routes – is likely what we can expect over the next few years.

Investing in autonomous trucking, while potentially lucrative down the road, requires some patience.

The Bottom Line: There Are Opportunities Ahead in Autonomous Trucking

Autonomous trucking may not be dominating the headlines like robotaxis, AI shopping assistants, or AI data centers. But its impact could eclipse them all.

This technology is a blend of three vital industries and innovations: AI, automation, and logistics. And the result is a huge opportunity for investors willing to wait out short-term challenges in exchange for long-term gains.

Autonomous trucking presents opportunities that carriers, logistics companies, and shippers can't ignore... such as reduced operating costs, greater efficiency, and improved safety.

And American consumers would be the beneficiaries. Shoppers would pay lower prices, get faster deliveries, and drive on safer roads. Autonomous trucking, if deployed on a national scale, would change our entire economy.

Companies like Aurora Innovation and Kodiak AI are at the center of it all. They're developing the products and technologies that make autonomous trucking possible. And they warrant the attention of patient investors who understand how game-changing this industry may become.

Regards,

David Engle

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