How Should Investors Approach Speculative Air-Taxi Play Joby Aviation (JOBY) on Earnings

I get skeptical looks when I tell people about one of my favorite stocks.

They think I'm joking.

I'm not.

I see a big opportunity in flying taxis.

Don't picture yellow cabs with wings. These are radically innovative new electric aircraft, more properly called eVTOLs (electric vertical takeoff and landing).

In October 2023, I spent a day visiting the Joby Aviation (JOBY) headquarters in Silicon Valley, where hundreds of the world's top mechanical, electrical, and aerospace engineers have developed a legitimate eVTOL.

The aircraft – which features breakthrough innovations like carbon-fiber airframes, electric motors, and advanced avionics – could eventually replace helicopters as the primary form of short-distance air travel...

As my colleague Tyler Jarman detailed in June, Joby's vision is to create a fleet of eVTOL air taxis... making it possible to call your own personal helicopter just as easily as an Uber.

And with its latest acquisition announcement, that vision just got closer to reality...

Joby Is One of My Favorite Speculative Stocks for 2025

Every year, I co-host the Value Investing Seminar in Italy. And this year, I shared Joby as one of my favorite stock ideas with around 60 value-investor attendees.

I had previously shared the idea with my readers in my January 18, 2024 and January 19, 2024 e-mails, when the stock was around $6.

And today, even as the stock is up more than 200% from there... I still think Joby is a "promising speculation." 

On August 4, Joby agreed to acquire the passenger division from another eVTOL company called Blade Air Mobility (BLDE). Shares rallied nearly 20% on the news...

The deal is worth up to $125 million. And it marks a big step for Joby's move toward commercial flights.

It adds 12 terminals, 50,000 annual helicopter rides, and premium lounges in New York and Europe. Here's an excerpt from a new Wall Street Journal article with more details on the agreement:

Joby Chief Executive JoeBen Bevirt in an interview with CNBC pointed to momentum in the business by way of a recent executive order from the Trump administration and stances from regulators around the world. He added that some aircraft testing is currently approved in Dubai.

As the WSJ also noted, Bevirt thinks that the executive order means the "potential to pull the timeline on commercialization here in the U.S."

This is more positive news from the company, building on several other big recent deals...

Past Deals Have Boosted JOBY Stock

In December 2020, Joby acquired Uber Technologies' (UBER) air-taxi service, Elevate.

The two companies agreed to a partnership in which customers will be able to schedule a trip on a Joby aircraft using the Uber app, just as they do for a car ride. Joby has also partnered with Toyota Motor (TM) on manufacturing and Delta Air Lines (DAL) to provide air-taxi service to and from airports.

Initial trips are expected to be short. So you could, for instance, book an eVTOL to fly you from Manhattan out to John F. Kennedy International Airport.

But longer-haul trips could become a reality once Joby gains more of a footing in the industry, demonstrates a track record of successful flights, and continues to improve upon its technology...

In April 2024, Joby signed an agreement with the government of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates to develop an air-taxi ecosystem, including 70-mile flights to nearby Dubai, which it plans to launch in 2026. Examples of other possibilities include Narita International Airport to downtown Tokyo (40 to 50 miles), Miami to West Palm Beach, Florida (65 miles), and New York City to East Hampton, New York (97 miles).

Joby is also looking to sell aircraft to end users such as the military and airlines...

Militaries have a strong interest in aircraft that can't be heard by enemies from miles away. The first delivery of a Joby aircraft (in September 2023) was to the U.S. Air Force for testing and training purposes. It must have gone well because the Air Force requested two additional aircraft be delivered this year.

Why Joby's eVTOL Makes Sense

Two distinct advantages the eVTOL has over a helicopter are price point and safety.

Joby expects the eVTOL will cost two-thirds less to manufacture and operate than a traditional helicopter.

It will also be much safer because there's no single point of failure. For example, if the engine on a helicopter fails, it falls out of the sky. The eVTOL, however, has six motors and can still fly if some of them fail. Plus, because it has wings, it can glide down to the ground even with no power.

Additionally, Joby's aircraft is powered by electric motors and lower-speed fan propellers, so it's 90% to 99% quieter than a helicopter. Many cities and municipalities strictly limit helicopters because of noise pollution, but they might permit quieter eVTOLs to land on the top of office buildings to whisk executives home or to the airport.

The downside is that the battery also limits flight time to a little over an hour and range to less than 200 miles. But that should improve as the technology continues to advance – and it's already more than enough to cover expected flight times and distances for Joby's initial contracts.

A Speculative Opportunity With Big Potential

As I write, Joby has a $15 billion market cap... and roughly $813 million in cash, minus its latest quarterly burn. That amount also doesn't include a recent $250 million cash injection from Toyota, part of a deal from the carmaker to invest $500 million to support the certification and commercial production of Joby's aircraft.

Joby burned $489 million in cash in the past year, which raises concerns that it'll run out of cash before its eVTOL can secure Federal Aviation Administration ("FAA") approval for commercial flights. (Note, however, that this isn't required in Abu Dhabi.)

Others question the viability of the air-taxi business in general. As I write, short interest comes in at roughly 15% of shares outstanding.

But the short sellers are missing the bigger picture...

They are betting against some of the greatest engineers in the world.

Even just a bit of success would make Joby a bite-size acquisition opportunity for large auto, defense, or airline companies. For instance, Joby's $15 billion market capitalization is a tiny fraction of Tesla's (TSLA) $1 trillion market cap.

Joby is one of only two notable public companies in the sector – the other is Archer Aviation (ACHR), recently highlighted by my colleague John Robertson – and is widely considered to be the technological leader.

Huge companies like Uber, Toyota, and Delta Air Lines are committed to its success.

Most importantly, the U.S. government is hugely supportive. For instance, the FAA is working on publishing certification standards and blueprints for safely operating eVTOLS at scale. And President Donald Trump signed an executive order in early June 2025 that calls for the "establishment of an electric vertical takeoff and landing pilot program."

High-tech innovators can be risky plays. But if they're well run and work toward a big vision that fills a gap in the market, they can be outstanding investments.

Everyone doubted Netflix (NFLX) when it pioneered video streaming. But its shares are up more than 80,000% since going public in 2002. And although critics still abound for Tesla, its shares are up more than 25,000% since popularizing electric vehicles and igniting a global automotive revolution.

Now, there's Joby, which reminds me of Netflix and Tesla – which is why it's my favorite speculative pick.

Regards,

Whitney Tilson
Editor, Whitney Tilson's Daily