Why Alzheimer's Drug Sales Are Set to Surge: Three Key Insights for Biotech Investors

I went to the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer's Disease ("CTAD") medical conference in San Diego last week, alongside 1,500 brain-disease experts. I went there to get "the wisdom of the crowd." And this isn't just any smart crowd.

At medical conferences, doctors can learn what medicines and diagnostic tests to choose for their patients, but doctors don't have to pay for them. So, it's a pure medical science conference, with huge economic aftereffects.

Here are the three things I learned that matter for biotech investors...

Takeaway 1: Antibody Therapies Leqembi and Kisunla Gain Global Momentum

I can report that the antibody therapy drugs from Eisai and Eli Lilly are well respected by top experts, with growing sales for patients. Eisai's drug Leqembi is already FDA-approved and widely available in the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Japan. Eli Lilly's drug Kisunla won FDA approval in July 2024 and approval in Europe in September 2025.

Fundamentally, these two drugs work the same way: They activate the white blood cells that live in your brain to clear up your Alzheimer's plaque. The key brain cells are microglial cells – but they don't connect neurons to convey your thoughts. Instead, microglial cells protect the neurons throughout the watery paths of your brain – almost like lifeguards.

By design, the antibodies from Eisai and Lilly have beacons on their backs, which alert your microglial cells. Meanwhile, the fronts of these antibodies latch onto Alzheimer's plaque – marking it for destruction. Although they are not a cure, both drugs slow the progress of Alzheimer's disease by about 25%. That's what the pivotal trials showed – and that's also what real-world medical data is showing us, based on people's health insurance records.

This is an important first step in solving a dreaded disease. On average, these drugs give patients two more years of independent living, when folks with cognitive impairment can still engage with their families. Since Alzheimer's is otherwise 100% fatal within 10 years – and 50% fatal within five years – medically, these two antibodies are as important as the first cancer treatments.

Yes, there are side effects. But these might be more "features" than "flaws." You see, on an MRI image, these antibody drugs can trigger "ARIA," which is shorthand for "amyloid-related imaging abnormality." Basically, it's a fuzziness in the image near the blood vessels. Yet, since plaque can build up near your blood vessels, this may be a sign that the drug and your microglial cells are working to eliminate plaque.

For most patients, ARIA is a passing thing that starts at the beginning of treatment and then tapers off. In one study that I saw at CTAD, patients (or their caregivers) used an auto-injector pen once a week to get their Leqembi – and there were zero cases of ARIA. That's because these patients had all been on the IV version of Leqembi before the auto-injector came out. Their bodies had seen the drug before. So, their immune systems did not overreact. Instead, patients got the benefits – without the side effects.

Economically, the two Alzheimer's antibodies are not yet blockbusters, but they are headed that way. Eisai reports $264 million in sales for Leqembi in the first half of 2025. Likewise, Lilly reports $240 million in sales for all its neurology drugs last quarter – a group that includes Kisunla. At least so far, though, Lilly is not highlighting these numbers...

I can explain why...

When these two antibodies were first approved, the only way to get a prescription was with a brain scan, using a radioactive contrast agent that was injected intravenously. The contrast agent lands on Alzheimer's plaque – but only briefly, when it gives up its positive charge, which an X-ray scanner can see. Technically, this is called "positron-emission tomography," or a PET scan, for short. For younger patients, getting scanned is easy. For older patients in cognitive decline, it's a lot harder. The process is invasive, the machine is scary, and the procedure is expensive. Plus, you need an expert to order it.

Fortunately, this is changing...

Takeaway 2: New P-Tau Blood Tests Will Transform Alzheimer's Diagnosis

The talk of the CTAD conference was the new blood tests for detecting brain plaque. Blood tests can be ordered by family doctors, and a blood draw is simpler for patients than older methods. Technically, the test looks for a damage marker in your blood, called phosphorylated tau, or just "P-tau." I saw study after study at CTAD where these blood tests matched their stage of Alzheimer's degree – and matched the results of the same patient's PET scan.

Four major diagnostics companies make these P-tau tests, but at CTAD I learned that the one from Roche (RHHBY) worked the best. This makes sense, since Roche is the world's largest medical diagnostic firm by sales. In turn, Roche has the biggest research budget. Plus, Roche has the widest footprint, which means it has the most machines to run these tests:

So, combining the new P-tau blood tests with the FDA-approved treatment antibodies should be a boon for all three companies. That's why we follow Roche, Eisai, and Eli Lilly in our model portfolio of stocks at Stansberry Venture Technology.

FDA-approved, safe drugs that effectively treat common, life-threatening diseases can be worth billions of dollars annually. What's key is, we are in front of this trend. Getting in early is the best way to profit from new medical technologies.

However, I have some less promising news, at least economically.

Takeaway 3: Novo Nordisk's Rybelsus Fails in Alzheimer's Trials

Novo Nordisk (NVO) reported pivotal results for its once-daily weight loss drug, Rybelsus, as an Alzheimer's treatment. This drug was safe. But it had no efficacy whatsoever. Not a lick.

Frankly, it was remarkable that Novo's drug results matched the control group exactly. See, this was a huge trial: Two groups of 1,500 people volunteered to test this pill, or take a placebo pill, over the course of three years. That meant taking 1,000 pills per person, for no effect. Yes, patients lost a little weight. But this didn't help with their Alzheimer's disease.

At root, there are two key reasons that Novo Nordisk failed. First, Rybelsus is a Type 2 diabetes medicine to control blood sugar, but it isn't designed as a weight-loss pill. In fact, Novo Nordisk is developing a higher dose of Rybelsus (at 25 milligrams) to maximize its weight loss, which is under FDA review now and should be approved in 2026. So, if Alzheimer's is in part driven by either high blood pressure or by inflammation created in your fat beds, to change the course of Alzheimer's, you need to cut weight fast.

Second, Novo Nordisk's Alzheimer's clinical trial did not include an exercise component. Physical exercise – be it biking, rowing, walking, swimming, or running – directly rejuvenates your brain. That's because your muscles produce "myokines" – chemical messengers that rebuild brain cells and renew your brain's blood vessel walls.

Quite frankly, exercise is easier when you are lighter. So, in overweight, obese, or morbidly obese patients, a weight-loss drug and an exercise program have additive effects. Novo Nordisk has proven this before. Thus, if Novo Nordisk had added exercise to its Alzheimer's trial, it might have succeeded – especially for the half of all seniors who are overweight. But all Novo Nordisk could point to at CTAD was its failure with Rybelsus. That has to hurt.

We do not currently follow Novo Nordisk in our model portfolio. I think you can see why.

If you're 50 or older... or are thinking ahead to retirement... legendary investor Whitney Tilson says this could be your smartest financial move of the entire AI boom.

It's time to look past Nvidia and the "Magnificent 7."

Whitney, a retired hedge fund manager once dubbed "The Prophet" by CNBC, is sharing a new AI story.

His brand-new stock system just gave one company a near-perfect grade... and it's not a name you've heard on the news.

The company just signed a huge new AI deal with a key tech partner, and you'll soon see a massive nationwide rollout.

Whitney's giving away the name, ticker, and full breakdown for free.