How personal anecdotes help achieve the best investment insights; Gathering reader feedback on the 'miraculous' weight-loss drugs
1) I don't know whether I've hit an unlucky streak or I just know a lot of folks, but many people close to me have recently had near-death experiences or are fighting for their lives...
Regular readers will remember that my dad was in the hospital for 10 days with African tick bite fever, which his doctors failed to diagnose. It was only after a week that I figured it out with the help of Google Gemini, as I discussed in my January 23 e-mail.
Last Tuesday and Wednesday, I shared an annual letter from my friend Guy Spier, who has been fighting grade 4 glioblastoma (brain cancer) for the past 15 months.
Just this weekend, I learned that one of my closest friends growing up, whom I'd lost touch with despite also living in New York City (if only I'd known), died a few weeks ago of a "sudden cardiac event." She was only 59 – same age as me.
And I was recently in Ukraine, where I support dozens of people, units, and organizations – and regularly hear about people I've met losing a limb or dying.
Sadly, that's not all, as there are a few other situations I can't discuss here that are also weighing on me.
As illness and death are unfortunately on my mind, today I want to talk about an epidemic that's killing an estimated 500,000 Americans every year – a higher rate than the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic...
As longtime readers will no doubt guess, I'm talking about obesity.
I've also written at length about the incredible "vaccine" helping to ease this terrible plague: GLP-1 drugs, most notably Novo Nordisk's (NVO) semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic) and Eli Lilly's (LLY) tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound).
I first wrote about these drugs – and labeled them "miraculous" – three and a half years ago. And I've written about them dozens of times since (archive here).
On September 25, I shared this quote from my friend and colleague Dave Lashmet:
I love Eli Lilly...
Yes, their stock is trading at 27 times next year's earnings, but I guarantee that analysts' estimates are too low.
There is an obesity epidemic around the world, and these drugs are the cure. The size of this market boggles my mind.
I agreed that Lilly looked compelling at those levels, and the stock is up 41% since then.
I believe these drugs are some of the most important medical advances in the past century. They're already saving untold lives and improving exponentially more. And they're shaking up some of the world's largest industries, like health care, fast food, and alcohol.
Now, you may be asking yourself, "This is an investing e-mail. What do obesity and weight-loss drugs have to do with investing?"
Well, any investor who isn't following this sector is making a mistake. And by "following," I don't mean just reading the occasional article or analyst report...
The best investment insights are most likely to emerge when you understand the human impact. You can achieve this by directly talking to lots of people who're using these drugs and gathering personal anecdotes.
By doing so, you can answer questions like: How many users have life-changing experiences on these drugs and why? How do their consumption patterns and spending change? Are there other health benefits beyond weight loss? Why are people reluctant to start taking the drugs? How many people stop taking them and why? How big of an issue is affordability? What about side effects? What support do patients need to succeed?
To help answer these critical questions, for years I've been talking with more than 100 people who are taking (or considering taking) these drugs – not as an objective researcher, but as a partisan!
I've encouraged more than a dozen of my friends and acquaintances to go on Lilly's Zepbound (which I think is the superior version). That's because every single person I've ever encountered who has taken the drug reports miraculous results, without exception.
These results include: substantial, steady weight loss, more energy and mental sharpness so they perform better at their jobs, strangers treat them nicer (how horrible that people discriminate based on weight), sleep apnea disappears, diabetes is put into remission, blood pressure and blood work improve, no more constant cravings and "food noise" in their heads, they consume less alcohol and fast food, etc. Plus, they feel more attractive and confident and have a huge surge in self-esteem.
There are, of course, side effects – though many experience few or none. And those who go off the drug tend to gain back most of the weight they'd lost. But overall, I've heard countless success stories. As one of my friends said recently, "It's the fountain of youth!"
2) Meanwhile, I have a different, particularly stubborn friend in his early 60s who has resisted going on Zepbound...
I'm hoping that feedback from readers who have used GLP-1s will not only help to shape the investment thesis regarding these drugs, but also provide my friend with examples of regular folks' experiences using them.
I've been bugging him about it for years because he has the most dangerous kind of fat: the kind that's concentrated in the front and pressing on his organs, resulting in a rock-hard belly. He's not obese, but he weighs 30 pounds more than the high end of the healthy range for a man of his age and height.
His blood work is normal, but he still has several health problems stemming from his weight. He has sleep apnea, is constantly wheezing because of his belly's pressure on his lungs, can't do a single sit-up or push-up, and gets hands-on-knees winded after a short sprint when playing any sport (and he likes to play many and is very active).
His doctor says his health metrics are mostly okay and that he would benefit from losing weight but it wouldn't likely extend his lifespan. So that's one reason my friend is refusing to take the drug.
I think his doctor is an idiot. Another doctor told my friend five years ago that his wheezing was very troubling and he needed to lose weight. The research I've done suggests that a belly like his will shorten his lifespan by five to 10 years, and his chances of a sudden heart attack or stroke are much higher.
Last night, I sent him a text about my concern and cc'd his adult children, with whom I'm very close (they call me Uncle Whitney). And I shared with him the responses I got from Google, ChatGPT, and Google Gemini after entering the following:
I'm an American man in my early 60s [I also inserted his height and weight here]. I am not obese and my bloodwork is normal, but I have a big, hard belly, sleep apnea, constant wheezing, and can't do a single sit-up or push-up. Should I be worried about my overall health and, in particular, a sudden adverse event? And would I benefit from taking Zepbound?
You can read my full text to my friend and the entire AI responses here. Some of the results are scary and definitely raise alarms.
Then I texted him excerpts, starting with these from Google:
While your bloodwork is currently normal, the combination of a "hard belly" (likely visceral fat), chronic wheezing, and sleep apnea suggests visceral adiposity and potentially obesity hypoventilation syndrome ("OHS"), which can lead to severe cardiovascular strain, heart failure, and stroke if left untreated.
In December 2024, the [U.S Food and Drug Administration ("FDA")] approved Zepbound specifically for the treatment of moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea ("OSA") in adults with obesity or overweight.
Zepbound reduces abdominal fat, which can directly relieve the pressure on your diaphragm and chest wall, improving your ability to breathe and reducing the severity of your sleep apnea.
This is how ChatGPT started its response:
I'm really glad you're asking this. What you're describing deserves attention – not panic – but definitely attention.
And here's Gemini (which is what I used to help my dad):
It's understandable that you're feeling concerned. While "normal bloodwork" is a great sign that your organs are currently coping, the specific combination of symptoms you're describing – especially the "big, hard belly" paired with breathing issues – is a significant clinical "red flag" that deserves a deeper look.
Now, like I've said before, AI can help steer us in the right direction, but it's also wrong... a lot.
AI has been trained by reading the entire Internet and will apply that knowledge base to whatever question you ask. That means it can help you connect the dots, but it doesn't know what condition you have.
You shouldn't use Gemini or any other AI as a way to diagnose yourself. And always consult with a human medical professional before taking any kind of drug.
In this case, I'm using it as a resource to push my friend in the right direction. He has never fully articulated why he won't at least try Zepbound, but he seems to think his current doctor gave him a clean bill of health. Plus, he has expressed concerns about not being able to eat any of his favorite foods, possible side effects, that he can do it on his own, etc.
So if you've used a GLP-1 drug, I'd be grateful if you'd send me an e-mail by clicking here to share your story. I'd like to relay them to my friend to help him understand regular folks' experiences with the drugs. He's not listening to me – someone who has never taken them – but he might listen to powerful stories by those who have.
As I said, hearing about experiences from lots of people helps us to understand the drugs' human impact – as well as the evolving investment thesis surrounding this incredible medical advancement.
I'll share some of the responses I get in a subsequent e-mail (with your permission, of course). So stay tuned!
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback – send me an e-mail by clicking here.
P.P.S. My buddy David Berman, my parents, and I have just flown back to Nairobi, Kenya from Lamu, an island just off the coast where my parents have a beach house.
After our death-defying "boba boda" ride, we arrived safely and had a wonderful time. Here are a few pictures:
Here's a short video David took of me doing a back flip off the dhow in the upper left photo. And here are some pictures of me kiteboarding:
Lastly, my parents told me about the first time I came to Lamu when we lived in Tanzania from 1968 to 1971, and even found this old photo:
