My presentation at the Value Investing Seminar Italy; Trump Social-Media SPAC Rallies After SEC Settlement; 29th anniversary of the founding of Amazon; Pictures
1) We just wrapped up the first day of the 19th Value Investing Seminar Italy, which featured eight presentations from investors from all over the world.
I'll share my favorite ones in upcoming e-mails once I get permission to do so, but in the meantime, I'd like to share highlights from the one I presented.
After introducing Empire Financial Research, I gave my overview of the market:
I then shared my personal evolution as an investor:
I'll share additional slides from my presentation and others' in future e-mails...
2) In my April 14 e-mail, I removed Digital World Acquisition (DWAC) from my "Dirty Dozen" list of stocks to avoid.
I still thought the stock – a SPAC that signed a deal to acquire Trump Media and Technology Group, which owns Twitter copycat Truth Social – was "a toxic piece of garbage." So why did I tell my readers it was no longer a good short? I explained:
Simply put: price.
The stock closed yesterday at $13.14 per share, only slightly above DWAC's cash. Given that I think there's almost no chance the deal to acquire TMTG goes through and it's likely too late to find another deal, DWAC is almost certain to liquidate and return $10 per share to shareholders.
In this case, anyone who's short the stock at today's price will pocket a gain of $3 per share, so why not stick around?
Because "almost certain" isn't the same as "100% certain" – and, as we've seen, this stock can trade almost anywhere, totally disconnected from its fundamentals.
I'm wary of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, which I discussed at length in my January 20 e-mail.
No matter how likely the outcome, it doesn't make sense to risk losing tens of dollars (and possibly more than $100) per share to make $3...
Sure enough, the stock soared 17% yesterday to $14.83 after the company announced an $18 million settlement with the SEC: Trump Social-Media SPAC Rallies After SEC Settlement.
To repeat: Don't try to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller. There's too high a risk of getting run over!
3) Yesterday was the 29th anniversary of Jeff Bezos founding Amazon (AMZN), one of the greatest businesses of all time (and an original – and still open – recommendation in Empire Stock Investor).
Here's Jon Erlichman with a Twitter thread on the company's early days, which begins:
I've shared this before, but I'll share it again: I've compiled a PDF with all of Bezos' annual letters, which you can download here. A must-read!
4) Here's my favorite slide that I presented today, showing my family in 2004 (the first year we came to Italy for this conference) and today:
When our girls were little, I brought my family and we built a holiday around the seminar. Then, they grew older and started going to camp, having jobs, etc. So for the past decade, it's just been me, but we're planning a 20th anniversary trip next year!
Here are two pictures from yesterday (I had to hide the face of one guy, one of the best-known activist short sellers in the world, because of threats from companies he's targeted):
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback at WTDfeedback@empirefinancialresearch.com.