My updated presentation on Joby Aviation and Match Group; I'm running the NYC Marathon on Sunday
In my presentation at the annual Stansberry Conference & Alliance Meeting in Las Vegas last week, I highlighted four of my favorite stocks right now.
Let's take a look at the first two today...
1) I pitched electric-air-taxi maker Joby Aviation (JOBY), about which I've written nearly two dozen times in my daily e-mails (archive here).
I had previously pitched Joby and industry peer Archer Aviation (ACHR) at the 2023 conference. After visiting both companies' headquarters, I concluded they were similar to Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA) for several reasons...
They have brilliant founding CEOs who have assembled a team of some of the world's best engineers. And they're developing radically innovative products in the largest global markets.
As you can see in this chart I presented last week, Joby's stock did absolutely nothing for 18 months – but then took off earlier this year and has nearly tripled:
Even with its recent run-up, Joby remains my favorite speculative stock. It's a good example of a "moonshot." As I explained in my January 17, 2024 e-mail, moonshots are:
... market-leading companies in sexy, exciting sectors that appeal to the media and retail investors...
[They have] breakthrough technologies that capture retail investors' imaginations – which can result in parabolic stock moves.
Some other examples are Netflix, Tesla, Apple (AAPL), iRobot (IRBT), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE).
As you can see in the slide below, the idea of an air taxi used to be science fiction – but now it's an exciting new technology:
I shared an updated overview of the company in my presentation last week:
And I concluded with a summary of the progress Joby has made over the past year:
I continue to have high hopes for this moonshot.
2) At last year's conference, I pitched dating-site operator Match Group (MTCH). I shared my presentation slides a few weeks later in my November 8, 2024 e-mail.
Back then, I noted the company's many strong brands, including Match, Hinge, and Tinder, as well as its strong cash-flow generation:
I also showed how it had ramped up share repurchases in the wake of its declining share price:
I concluded with this summary of my investment thesis:
Fast-forward one year, and the stock has been a disappointment so far. It has declined 14% since then, while the S&P 500 Index rose 15%:
Last week, I shared this updated overview:
I also shared this chart showing how much free cash flow Match is generating – and using to buy back a ton of stock:
Match today reminds me of Joby a year ago: A year after I recommended it, the stock is down – but the investment thesis is still fully intact, so I like it even more at this lower price.
3) I'll be running in the New York City Marathon this year...
It's this coming Sunday – the day after my 59th birthday. I'll be running to support Success Academy Charter Schools.
(I take partial credit for this fantastic network of 59 schools in NYC. More than two decades ago, I brought my friends John Petry and Joel Greenblatt to visit the original KIPP charter school in the South Bronx... And they were so inspired that they founded Success.)
I've only ever run one marathon – exactly 10 years ago on my 49th birthday. Here are a couple of pictures:
That time, I decided to run it just four days beforehand. This time, I've tripled my training window to a luxurious 12 days. It's a questionable experiment to see if I'm still young...
Back in 2015, my time was 4:03. I'll definitely be slower this year, but hopefully not by too much.
Wish me luck!
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback – send me an e-mail by clicking here.