Reviewing Anthropic's IPO roadshow; The politics of the Nvidia scandal; David Einhorn's big win; Watch out for this WhatsApp scam
1) AI giant Anthropic, which I last wrote about on October 27 and 28, is planning to go public next Thursday, November 19 at an estimated $1.3 trillion valuation.
That's a far cry from the $2 trillion that was discussed a few months ago. But $1.3 trillion would still be a much-needed boost (and an approximately $80 billion capital raise) for Anthropic – as well as the entire AI sector.
The company is currently in the midst of its IPO roadshow (you can view the video and presentation slides here). So let's take a look...
Overall, there are no big surprises relative to what has already been reported. Anthropic is a very impressive company.
It's growing extremely rapidly, as it regularly rolls out more advanced models. On Page 34 of its presentation, Anthropic cites 250 models, products, and features released year to date through the most recent quarter.
As customers become familiar with the capabilities of its AI assistant, Claude, they use it more and more. That has resulted in a 7.5 times increase in the number of customers who are spending $100,000 or more on an annual run-rate basis.
You can see the growth in this chart adapted from Anthropic's presentation:
Up until the company's most recent quarter, revenues were growing faster than compute expenses. In 2025, each quarter saw a revenue-to-compute-expense ratio of less than 1 times. It hit 1.4 times and 2.1 times the next two quarters, then 1.7 times last quarter.
As you can see, revenues hit $17 billion last quarter versus nearly $10 billion in expenses:
As a result, the company generated positive operating margins the past two quarters (adjusted for noncash stock-based compensation and charity expenses):
All of these metrics are substantially better than what I've seen disclosed by ChatGPT maker OpenAI, which I continue to be bearish on. Just yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the company continues to suffer huge operating losses:
OpenAI grew revenue by roughly 50% to $10 billion from the second to the third quarter, but continued to report heavy operating losses, showing mixed results in its effort to catch up with industry leader Anthropic...
The company grew revenue by only 18% in the second quarter compared with the first, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.
OpenAI told investors Tuesday that its adjusted operating margin improved from minus 150% to minus 109% from the second to the third quarter, according to documents viewed by The Wall Street Journal. Even so, the company's adjusted operating losses ticked up slightly from $10.1 billion to $10.9 billion, based on those figures.
Is Anthropic worth $1.3 trillion? I doubt it.
But I would never bet against the company, either. That would violate one of my most important rules for short selling: Never short exponential or accelerating growth.
It reminds me a bit of when Google – now Alphabet (GOOGL) – went public on August 19, 2004 and closed up 18% that day. We now know, of course, that the stock was the steal of the century.
So, why am I not pounding the table on Anthropic?
A teeny, tiny little thing called valuation.
Google's market cap at the end of its first day of trading was a "mere" $27 billion. That's 98% less than Anthropic's IPO valuation.
My, how times have changed!
2) Following up on yesterday's e-mail, there's another reason why I think that Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang's scandal is going to get a lot worse for the company... politics.
Democrats just won big majorities in the House and Senate, giving them a wide range of investigative powers – and this scandal is their dream come true.
It has everything Democrats hate: AI and data centers, a billionaire tech executive, possible violations of national security vis-à-vis China, and President Donald Trump perhaps covering up for a megadonor (see this New York Times story: Despite Denial, Trump Was Told on Trip to China About Spying on Nvidia Leader).
I'm not expressing an opinion on whether this is a good thing or not – I'm simply stating what I think will happen: Democrats are going to make political hay out of this for a long time. And that's likely to be an overhang on Nvidia's stock...
3) Kudos to my friend David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital for fighting – and winning a total victory against – an extortion attempt by a truly crazy former employee, James Fishback.
(Fishback ran for governor of Florida and says he's going to run for president in 2028 – no, I'm not making this up.)
You can read David's full X post here, which concludes:
We have little doubt that he will try to ignore the arbitration ruling against him from the arbitration he commenced. Ignoring court orders is a very dangerous way for anyone to behave. But those that do, especially in such a self-serving fashion, should not be put in a position of public trust or have influence in the enforcement of laws against others.
It doesn't matter that I'm a Democrat. What does matter is that we gave a seemingly intelligent college drop-out a chance to achieve what he once said was his dream job. And once he was provided with that opportunity, instead of applying any semblance of a work ethic, he chose to be a "faithless servant".
We have a theory as to why Fishback wishes to continue his political ambitions. We believe that by continuing to seek office, he will find donors to his campaign, PAC and charitable endeavors, and he will use those funds to stay in hotels, rent cars, travel and dine out – all without ever acquiring an asset in his own name that can be used to repay his legitimate creditors, like us. It's the perfect way for Fishback to continue to grift and continue to avoid paying his debts.
It won't work. James, you owe us over $4 million and interest is ticking.
And, when we do collect it, I will in turn donate it to a combination of the National Immigration Forum, The Center for Reproductive Rights, The Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, and The Florida Chapter of the ADL. The best way to fight your hate is to support those you hate.
4) I recently got this text on WhatsApp from a ski guide who's leading a trip I'm going on in February (we've never met, as he's based in New Zealand, but we've texted and e-mailed a few times):
Hey, could you pay my dentist $1,800? I have a limit on instant transfers, and he only accepts instant transfers. I'll pay you back in an hour when I'm home at my computer.
I immediately realized he'd been hacked and that it was a scam. I called and texted him (not via WhatsApp), but my attempts didn't go through, so I e-mailed him.
A few hours later, he left me a voicemail:
I got your e-mail this morning. It was one of hundreds that I got from people all over the world, many of whom didn't realize that it was a scam. So that's a real bummer.
It's frightening that anyone fell for this. Don't be a sucker!
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback – send me an e-mail by clicking here.
P.P.S. On Monday, my dad got a pacemaker – made by medical-device company Medtronic (MDT), which I'll take a look at in tomorrow's e-mail.
We brought him home yesterday and he's resting comfortably, mostly in the TV room, and napping a bit (he didn't sleep well in the hospital).
For the next month, he and my mom will be staying at our extended family's house on Lake Sunapee in New Hampshire, about 30 minutes from the hospital, before it'll be safe for them to go home to Kenya.
