Apple suppliers report lower sales...
As I (Porter) have said in the past, asset valuation is a tricky thing. It's not always easy to know the real value of something…
That goes double when it comes to valuing gold. Its only true utility is as a universally recognized asset that isn't anyone else's liability, like I said yesterday. While gold is a value touchstone, its intrinsic value is very difficult to judge.
Then again, the price of anything is impossible to measure in the short term. That's because short-term markets act as voting mechanisms. As you've seen in American politics, people will vote for damn near anything. In the market, people cast their votes and act irrationally because of margin calls and fear and greed and so on.
In the long run, of course, markets are weighing mechanisms. And in the long run, the stability of gold… its universal acceptance… and its quality of being an asset that's nobody else's liability… will carry its value.
So if you buy gold, even at the wrong price, you will be rewarded eventually. That's because gold is ethically, morally, and traditionally – and for sound physical reasons – the best form of money ever created.
Of course, how much you will be rewarded depends upon the moral and economic failings of the paper money systems gold competes with. I would judge those failings to be approximately total.
By the time my children are having children, let's say 25 years from now, I would expect the paper dollar to be nearly worthless. Because you measure the price of gold in paper dollars, you would then expect the price of gold to be nearly infinite. That's only measuring these things in terms of nominal prices, which are meaningless in the real world.
So if you look at the value of gold and not the price, I think you'll have a much better sense of what's happening. The value of gold has remained almost completely unchanged over thousands and thousands of years. And this latest bull market in gold has not changed the metal's fundamental value.
An ounce of gold should be worth approximately the same amount of labor and materials as the finest men's suit. That has always been what gold has been worth. So what's the competitive price of the finest men's suit?
As a connoisseur of men's clothing, I can get a well-tailored suit for about $1,500 at the low end. It could be as much as $5,000 at the high end. So I think somewhere in that range is a fair price for an ounce of gold. Though the nominal price is bouncing all over the place, I truly believe the value of gold remains unchanged.
None of the latest market gyrations has changed my view of the intrinsic utility of gold. I don't expect the true value of gold to change much at all over time. I expect that its relationship with other paper currencies will change dramatically in gold's favor. And I expect that will happen soon.
– Porter Stansberry with Sean Goldsmith
As Porter has written… deriving the "inherent value" of gold is a complicated proposition. It has no "earnings" and pays no "dividend"… However, as he describes in today's Digest Premium, Porter has a very simple rule of thumb he uses to gauge the metal's value…
To continue reading, scroll down or click here.
As Porter has written… deriving the "inherent value" of gold is a complicated proposition. It has no "earnings" and pays no "dividend"… However, as he describes in today's Digest Premium, Porter has a very simple rule of thumb he uses to gauge the metal's value…
To subscribe to Digest Premium and access today's analysis, click here.
Computer and consumer electronics titan Apple fell to less than $400 a share yesterday on news it was slowing component orders for its signature products, the iPad and iPhone...
Cirrus Logic, which makes microchips for the iPhone and iPad, announced first-quarter earnings that missed market expectations... It also forecast revenues of between $150 million and $170 million for the current quarter, short of Wall Street projections.
Hon Hai Precision, a major manufacturing partner for Apple, announced a 19% decline in first-quarter sales.
Digitimes, an Asia-focused tech publication, reported that Apple had allegedly stopped placing component orders for its Mac series products. It also said Apple had not provided suppliers with a quarterly shipment forecast, as it usually does.
This made investors nervous, with Apple's earnings announcement scheduled for April 23. The company's shares have fallen 8% in the past two days and were down as much as 3% today. They're trading at around $390.
Apple, the market's best-loved stock just six months ago, has dropped around 45% from its high of $702.10 a share in September.
In the February 5 issue of Digest Premium, when Apple was trading at $455, Porter said he was glad to see Apple shares slump. As he said…
|
I (Porter) think Apple will end up being a fantastic investment again at some price, and I'm really happy to see it sell off because I would like to own it.
|
|
Apple is extremely big and extremely profitable. At a market cap of $430 billion... it's one of the largest companies in the world. So you would think it would struggle to continue growing very fast.
|
|
But Apple's return on assets is more than 20%. That reflects exceptional growth... especially from such a large company. Rival Microsoft is about half the size ($230 billion market cap) and sports a return on assets of "just" 13.4%. (That's also a strong figure... GE's return on assets is a paltry 1.6%.)
|
He went on to tell subscribers the share price that would make him interested in buying Apple. Digest Premium subscribers can click here to review what Porter said.
Porter's commentary on Apple is just one example of the insight and market analysis we're publishing every day in Digest Premium.
After many requests from readers for "more Porter," we launched Digest Premium last December. And we made it affordable, so Porter could reach a larger audience. For only about $0.33 a day, you can hear what Porter has to say on the markets, government, and society... on a daily basis.
Since we launched Digest Premium, Porter has discussed some of his favorite short-sale opportunities. He's shared his favorite newsletters and books, and his thoughts on offshore banking... He's even shared personal information, like naming his favorite fishing spot and describing several wines he recently sampled.
Just yesterday, Porter explained why he was happy gold was correcting... and how he'll know when it's time to buy. This week, he'll also tell readers where he'd go if he decided to leave the country, why he believes the government will steal our 401(k)s, and a few things you can do to save some of your money from greedy government officials.
Next week, Porter plans to describe some advanced steps you can take to protect yourself as his End of America thesis plays out.
The 12% Letter recommendation Coca-Cola announced solid earnings yesterday... The stock jumped nearly 6% to a 52-week high.
Coke is a wonderful example of a capital-efficient company. These companies return loads of capital to investors because they don't have to reinvest that cash back into the business... They can rely on their strong brands and quality products for pricing power.
A common telltale sign of a capital-efficient company is a consistent and rising dividend... And Coke's quarterly dividend has risen every year for the last decade. It's more than doubled – to $0.28 a share from $0.11 – over that span.
We've shared billionaire investor Warren Buffett's thoughts on Coca-Cola and its powerful dividend several times in the Digest... But because this idea is so powerful (that you can simply buy World Dominating Dividend Growers and compound your wealth), we're including it again. Buffett wrote this bit in his 2010 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders:
|
Coca-Cola paid us $88 million in 1995, the year after we finished purchasing the stock. Every year since, Coke has increased its dividend. In 2011, we will almost certainly receive $376 million from Coke, up $24 million from last year. Within ten years, I would expect that $376 million to double. By the end of that period, I wouldn't be surprised to see our share of Coke's annual earnings exceed 100% of what we paid for the investment. Time is the friend of the wonderful business.
|
True Wealth recommendation and private-equity powerhouse Blackstone Group announced its best quarterly earnings since becoming a public company six years ago…
The company took advantage of a rising stock market to sell $2 billion of assets – earnings from buyouts jumped 57% in the quarter.
Blackstone sold stakes in oil explorer Kosmos Energy, the savings-and-loan BankUnited, broadcast-ratings firm Nielsen Holdings, and Danish telecom company TDC.
The company earned $167.6 million in the first quarter, nearly triple the $58.3 million it earned a year ago.
Blackstone's revenues from fees jumped 3% to $520.9 million. Performance fees, the portion of deal profits the firm keeps, jumped 57% from a year ago to $604 million. And investment income increased 62%.
Assets under management increased 15% from a year earlier to $218 billion (investors added $8 billion into Blackstone's funds).
In January, Blackstone increased its quarterly dividend to $0.12 a share from $0.10… And it said it would pay excess cash as dividends each quarter. The firm's distributable earnings totaled $378.8 million in the first quarter (up from $162.1 million a year ago). The firm said it would pay a $0.30 dividend for the first quarter.
"Although several of our investment businesses are already the largest of their kind in the world, every one reported year-over-year double-digit growth in total assets under management," Blackstone chairman and CEO Stephen Schwarzman said.
True Wealth editor Steve Sjuggerud originally recommended Blackstone because it was one of the best ways to invest in real estate through the stock market… The company has already bought $3 billion in single-family homes. And it's spending $100 million a week. Blackstone is buying the homes, fixing them up, and renting them out.
No doubt, Blackstone has benefited from rising real estate prices. But as we've explained before in the Digest, private-equity firms are minting cash right now…
One of the ways private-equity firms make money is by gathering assets… In most cases, they charge a flat fee to manage assets and a performance fee (a portion of profits). And right now, thanks to government money printing, trillions of fresh dollars are looking for a new home… And private equity is collecting a lot of that cash.
Private-equity firms also make money selling their assets, both public and private… With stock, bond, and real estate prices all going up, these firms are able to unload assets at a healthy profit. And they can carry their other assets at higher values on the balance sheet.
True Wealth subscribers are up 54% on Blackstone since Steve recommended it in November… He expects it to go higher from here.
New 52-week highs (as of 4/17/13): Coca-Cola (KO), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
Does the selloff in gold have you ready to buy the precious metal? A couple subscribers weigh in. Send your comments to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Porter, regarding your Friday essays, I have found all of them quite lucid descriptions of important investing concepts. So, for those who can't (or won't try to) grapple with somewhat abstract concepts, I guess the only thing I can say is to paraphrase that famous movie line by actor John Wayne: 'Life is tough. Life is tougher when you're stupid.' Or, as some of the fellows used to say when I worked in heavy maintenance jobs and did dumb stuff: 'Get a large chain and a tracker, and pull your head out of your arse.'" – Paid-up subscriber Dave Hungerford
"Are you serious about gold? If so, then you would be telling your subscribers to buy BOATLOADS! Right now. Get off your yacht, and start buying some gold.
"It's down 8 standards of deviation! This is a historic drop. What are you making your readers wait for? Armageddon?!
"NOT POUNDING THE TABLE RIGHT NOW would show newsletter-writing incompetence. Sorry for saying so, but that's the truth. You, Dan, Goldsmith, and the gang better start POUNDING THE TABLE till your girlie fists start bleeding!" – Paid-up subscriber BW
"I've contacted three places where I've bought Gold and Silver and asked – are you getting hit with a bunch of people coming in to sell their physical gold and silver. 2 have reported back so far. Both said No sellers, only buyers." – Paid-up subscriber Jeff Martin
Regards,