Five Key Reasons Why Cannabis Will Be Legal in Months, Not Years
Editor's note: We expect to get plenty of e-mails about this weekend's Masters Series...
As you'll see, it involves one of the most polarizing topics in America in recent years.
But remember, here at Stansberry Research, we'll always share with you what we'd want if our roles were reversed. Our job isn't to tell you what's right or wrong... We simply point out the best investment ideas we're seeing, leaving it up to you whether to invest or not.
And frankly, this could be one of the biggest investment opportunities in the years ahead.
We're talking about the legalization of cannabis.
As Cannabis Capitalist editor Thomas Carroll explains in a two-part series – adapted from the July issue of his monthly newsletter – it's a matter of when, not if, this will happen. And as it does, you'll want to make sure you're best-positioned to reap the rewards...
Five Key Reasons Why Cannabis Will Be Legal in Months, Not Years
By Thomas Carroll, editor, Cannabis Capitalist
The guests kept puncturing their mouths...
Such was a primary risk of dining during medieval times. Before formal table settings became commonplace, knives and daggers accompanied fingers as the main dining utensils.
These blades were used for a number of purposes... as a weapon, a daily tool, and for killing the animal that would supply the main course. It made sense to use these sharp tools at the dinner table.
However, something made this even more problematic...
During the 1500s, wine, beer, and other fermented drinks took the place of water. Water was often contaminated and caused illness, but fermented drinks killed bacteria and were safer to drink.
Of course, fermented drinks have another effect... They get us drunk. Combining "drunk" with "daggers" at the dinner table proved to be a poor pairing. Mouth injuries were common.
In 1669, Louis XIV actually made sharp knives at the table illegal. They were replaced with dull, wider versions – what we call the butter knife today.
During the 1600s, specialized tools for dining became more commonplace. While the spoon has history going back thousands of years, forks and other items became important components of the table.
All of this ushered in the art of table setting. As society became more sophisticated and proper etiquette was valued, setting the table became just as important as the meal.
Rules also appeared... And they needed to be followed. A host would not want guests to believe they were mere animals. The following diagram provides a blueprint for a formal meal...
All the utensils should be even with the bottom of the plate. The cup and saucer should be one inch from the dinner knife, which must face toward the plate. Forks must reside on the left side, with the outermost being used strictly for salad (except for the seafood fork!). Let's not even talk about fingerprints...
The appearance and accuracy of the setting is as important as the event, dinner conversation, and of course, the meal. So many things must come together for the table to be properly set.
Most importantly, a proper table setting represents much more than the tools for eating. The setting prepares the event for what is to come next.
It is the beginning of something that has been in the works for a long time. It may be a celebration... a college graduation... the meal after a wedding... or a holiday dinner with loved ones all together seated around a single table as opposed to miles apart.
This is exactly where we find ourselves today with the legalization of cannabis...
The "cannabis table" is perfectly set at this very moment. We believe there is a high probability this new sector will see some kind of federal loosening of longstanding cannabis restrictions.
And it could happen as soon as THIS YEAR.
As you know, federal legalization is not black-and-white. Like most things, it's a spectrum of outcomes. And the beginning of the spectrum has already begun... It has occurred, and will continue to occur, at the state level. By the end of 2020, we believe upwards of 40 states will approve some type of legal cannabis program.
The next major step along the spectrum will come from the federal government...
It could be the Marijuana Opportunity, Reinvestment, and Expungement ("MORE") Act. This is a very comprehensive bill that has bipartisan support. However, if the MORE Act is deemed too much, too soon... a compromise could involve some type of operational allowances.
For example, the next most likely candidate is the Secure and Fair Enforcement ("SAFE") Banking Act of 2019, or some evolved version of it. In its current form, the SAFE Banking Act does not legalize cannabis nationwide. It relieves banks of federal restrictions so they can offer legal cannabis companies all the financial services they provide to any other legitimate business.
This would be the first federal step toward total legalization... Until last month, a path for this to happen before the election was in sight. However, other congressional distractions have pushed it out. With that said, we still could see a vote – at least in the House of Representatives – before the end of 2020 (which can't come soon enough!).
Why do we feel so confident? As I said, the table is set... The timing is right... And the world is ready. The cannabis place setting consists of five items, which we'll discuss this weekend...
- Money, money, and money. States and the federal government need new sources of revenue.
- Jobs, jobs, and jobs. States and the federal government need incremental employment.
- Your most important asset – health. COVID-19 left us scrambling for a vaccine. Cannabis is currently unavailable to researchers. Let's not exclude it when the next pandemic occurs.
- Count the votes. As we'll illustrate, lawmakers overwhelmingly support national cannabis legalization.
- A great political weapon. Regardless of who wins the election, legalizing cannabis will earn a big chapter in the history books. It is bipartisan... It drives social justice reform... It generates tax revenue without tax increases... It instantly creates jobs... And it opens up a big, new hunting ground that supports our No. 1 asset – our health. Either Donald Trump or Joe Biden will write the chapter.
The first three items are critically important to our argument. All three create a solid base that allows the final two to occur. Let's dive deeper into the first one now...
Money Talks the Loudest
The cannabis market in the U.S. likely exceeds $50 billion annually.
A study by Arcview Market Research estimated 2016 illegal cannabis sales at $46.4 billion, or 87% of total cannabis sales. This equates to a total market of $53.3 billion. Over the last four years, cannabis sales have done nothing but increase from this level.
Almost all of this remains untaxed.
If rationally structured and legalized, excise taxes of 20% would add $10 billion of NEW revenue for state and federal coffers. Excise taxes are a flat-rate tax that applies to specific goods, services, and activities.
Additional tax structures could also be levied on a state-by-state basis.
Remember, this market is with us today. It does not need to be created.
Plus, a freshly legalized market would undoubtedly increase as new consumers emerge.
As we know, this is already happening... Over the last six years, a limited number of states have begun to reap the rewards of this new market.
In 2019, $1.9 billion of tax revenue came to states with recreational cannabis laws. This excludes states with only medical-cannabis programs. We are highlighting just the recreational states as they illustrate how readily available the tax revenues are.
Colorado alone has raked in more than $1.3 billion in revenues from medical and recreational cannabis since 2014.
These funds are greatly needed right now. As of early July, every single U.S. state will be short of funds in 2020. This threatens important services such as education and health care. It's estimated that states will see a $200 billion shortfall.
The federal government is no different... The Bipartisan Policy Center tracks the federal deficit on a monthly basis. The chart below illustrates the deficit's monthly progression for 2017 to 2020 (estimated). This information comes directly from the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Congressional Budget Office ("CBO"). The chart speaks for itself...
The CBO is projecting a 2020 deficit of $3.3 trillion. This is the federal government. The source of the increase is obvious – the COVID-19 pandemic has catalyzed massive stimulus spending.
As we know, the Fed can print money, but states still have to balance their budgets. They cannot harvest dollars from a money tree, and most are facing big trouble in 2020 and 2021.
To further illustrate this point, let's look at the two largest state budgets in the U.S. – California and New York. In California, the current budget is $221 billion. Into 2021, an expected shortfall of $18 billion to $31 billion is projected. In New York, with a $177 billion budget, a $13.3 billion deficit is projected for the coming fiscal year. The rest of the country is similar.
Do you see the irony here? California has a huge recreational cannabis market... And it's still seeing a shortfall. What might the challenge be without cannabis?
The picture seems pretty clear in light of the pandemic... The current cannabis market is a great place to grow tax revenues, and states need it now more than ever.
Now, let's cover the second part of the cannabis place setting...
Job Creation
As COVID-19 and its economic impacts have laid waste to businesses across the U.S., workers have been fired and furloughed at a rate never seen before.
In May, the unemployment figure officially came in at 13.3%, much lower than expected. However, COVID-19 disruptions influenced the tally for that month. Real unemployment is estimated to be roughly 20%, unheard of in modern times.
Between May and July, the unemployment rate, as reported, exceeded 10%. August and September showed improvement to about 8%.
There are patches of optimism... Warehouse clubs, supercenters, and computer manufacturers have been hiring. And the courier/messenger industry has been buoyed by the explosion in online shopping.
Although they don't get quite the same headlines that Amazon does, many cannabis companies have stepped up hiring during the pandemic as well.
Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF), for example, has hired roughly 250 people since the pandemic started and still has more than 150 open positions on its website.
Granted, not every cannabis company is hiring left and right... Cannabis firms with poor balance sheets like Canopy Growth (CGC) – the kinds we stay away from in Cannabis Capitalist – have slashed jobs during the pandemic to try to conserve cash.
But here's the thing... Even prior to the pandemic, the cannabis industry had subtly become a crucial employer in America.
Leafly is a well-regarded cannabis news source. According to its annual 2019 Cannabis Jobs Report, legal cannabis supports more than 240,000 jobs. This is roughly the equivalent of all the clergy in the country.
More importantly, legal cannabis is quietly expected to be the fastest-growing occupation in the U.S. over the coming years... by an eye-opening margin.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, legal cannabis jobs are expected to grow 250% between 2018 and 2028.
And as with tax revenues, the biggest boon for employment will come from further expanding the legal market to cannibalize the illicit market.
In fact, a report from New Frontier Data estimated that federal legalization would create 782,000 jobs immediately.
And the effects are durable, as the report also estimates that the figure would grow to 1.1 million by 2025 – less than five years from now.
Legalization will undoubtedly support job growth. This should be mouthwatering to politicians facing reelection this year.
As you can see, these first two pieces of the cannabis table setting are critically important. But they're just the beginning... In tomorrow's Masters Series, we'll cover the final three.
Happy investing,
Thomas Carroll
Editor's note: You might recall seeing the reports of folks from all walks of life becoming overnight millionaires as cannabis stocks soared to incredible heights in 2018... But lately, they've been all but left for dead. Many investors have moved on to "the next big thing."
However, if you're one of those people, Thomas believes you're making a huge mistake...
According to Thomas, we're on the verge of another great opportunity to make a large fortune as an important policy change again brings the cannabis space into the headlines. And even better, he just put together a brand-new presentation to reveal the specific details about three cannabis companies that will benefit the most. Get all the details right here.

