If You're Investing in Gold, Remember This Key Concept
Editor's note: Regular Digest readers know all about America's debt crisis...
The U.S. national debt has surpassed a mindboggling $27 trillion – including a 20% gain in 2020 alone. To put that into perspective, it's roughly $82,000 for every American citizen.
And that mountain of debt won't miraculously disappear – even if the economy comes roaring back as the COVID-19 vaccine rollout takes off in the coming weeks and months.
Devaluing the U.S. dollar is the government's only solution...
That's part of the reason why we always recommend holding some gold in your portfolio. The precious metal is the perfect "safe haven" against the Federal Reserve's "easy money" policies – and other geopolitical factors brewing around the world.
Today's Masters Series is adapted from this month's issue of Stansberry Gold & Silver Investor. In it, editor Bill Shaw explains why despite renewed momentum in the stock market, investors shouldn't turn their backs on gold. As he shows, it's critical to keep one thing in mind when investing in the metal today...
If You're Investing in Gold, Remember This Key Concept
By Bill Shaw, editor, Stansberry Gold & Silver Investor
If we told you a year ago that gold would be valued at $1,880 today, you'd be ecstatic...
The precious metal started 2020 at roughly $1,525 per ounce. It's up about 23% so far this year. And if we go back even further, it's up around 47% since the beginning of 2019.
Yet, if you just started paying attention to gold this summer, you're likely disappointed...
The metal hit an all-time high of more than $2,060 per ounce in early August. But since then, it has trended downward... Gold is down around 9% over the past four months.
And it just endured its worst month in four years... It plunged 9% from about $1,950 per ounce on November 6 down to $1,777 on November 30 – its lowest mark since early July.
Here's the point... With gold, you must always remember to keep the proper perspective.
At Stansberry Research, we're long-term investors. We believe the price of gold will continue rising over the next several years. We're only in the early innings today.
But the thing is... Nothing goes up in a straight line forever. We're going to experience plenty of bumps along the way.
However, as long as we stick to our guns through these ebbs and flows, we'll all be glad to keep owning gold for the long haul.
Continued optimism about a COVID-19 vaccine fueled the most recent pullback in gold...
Drugmaker Pfizer (PFE) and its German biotech partner BioNTech (BNTX) have developed a vaccine that's now being distributed to folks around the world – including here in the U.S. And a couple of other vaccine candidates have shown promising effectiveness, too.
We're in unprecedented times... Never before has a vaccine been rushed to the public so quickly. But we could have multiple COVID-19 vaccines approved by the end of the year.
With the COVID-19 vaccine, our daily lives could return to normal by this time next year...
After frontline workers and those most at risk receive the vaccine, experts estimate that it could be available to the rest of us by sometime in the middle of 2021. If that's true, bars and restaurants will be able to run at maximum capacity once again and air travel will be able to resume as usual. Plus, we suspect that pent-up Americans will be ready to spend.
That's a big reason why investors – both everyday folks and professionals – have left the "safe haven" of gold. Instead, they're pouring their money back into the stock market...
Stocks are once again making new all-time highs.
The benchmark S&P 500 Index posted its best election week rally since 1932, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average completed its best month since 1987. Since the start of November, the S&P 500 and the Dow are up 14%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index is up 17%.
Meanwhile, investors aren't nearly as fearful anymore... The CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX") – the market's so-called "fear gauge" – has dropped to around 23. That's the lowest point for the VIX since February, just before the pandemic caused it to surge to an all-time high.
Suddenly, it's as if everything is back to normal and Americans have nothing to worry about. As we joked during the November issue of Stansberry Gold & Silver Investor...
In other words, just like that, all of our problems have vanished thanks to [Joe] Biden becoming president and an effective COVID-19 vaccine candidate in sight. It no longer makes sense for us to keep imploring you to hold some of your wealth in a "chaos hedge" like gold.
Look, we can't fault investors for trying to look at the bright side...
After all, it has been a difficult year. Between COVID-19 disruptions, civil unrest, and presidential election fatigue, we're all eager to put 2020 behind us and look to the future.
But we need to remember all the reasons to keep a portion of our portfolios in gold. None of that has changed... The mountains of debt, the unprecedented "easy money" policies, and the geopolitical risks around the world haven't gone away. Nor will they anytime soon.
For one thing, as we go to press, Congress is on the verge of a deal for another $900 billion stimulus package. And the latest proposal includes more direct handouts to the American people, too... Apparently everyone who qualifies will get a $600 or $700 stimulus check.
And of course, even more "relief" could come after Biden takes office in January.
This stimulus money is created out of thin air by pressing some buttons. It's not sitting in a bank somewhere. Nobody earned it or saved it. And the worst part of it all is... this forced dilution of the U.S. dollar will continue to make it weaker – eventually leading to inflation.
The value of the dollar (as measured against a basket of other currencies) recently hit a 30-month low. And as it gets weaker, it provides major tailwinds for gold (valued in dollars).
Simply put, it takes more watered-down dollars to buy an ounce of gold... That makes gold – the only real currency in world history – a great hedge against inflation. David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, summed it up to Reuters last week...
We're one step closer to the next stimulus package; that has weakened the dollar, eroding the currency and supporting commodity prices across the board, including gold and silver.
Now, you might be wondering when we'll finally see signs of increased inflation. But the thing is... Nobody really knows – not even the Federal Reserve. That's why the Fed decided in recent months to let the economy run hotter, above its typical 2% inflation target.
One thing to keep an eye on is the "velocity" of money...
That's simply the rate at which dollars change hands within an economy. If the velocity is high, it's typically considered a good sign of a healthy economy. And on the flip side, some analysts consider it a red flag for an economy if the velocity of money slows down.
The following chart compares the U.S. supply of money to its velocity since late 2015. The money supply shown below is a measure of "M2" – which includes cash, checking and savings deposits, as well as other easily convertible money such as certificates of deposit and mutual funds. As you can see, the COVID-19 pandemic threw a wrench into everything...
As COVID-19 swept across the world in the spring, the money supply jumped sharply due to government stimulus efforts. At the same time, the velocity of money fell off a cliff.
This makes sense... Americans have been forced to hunker down in their homes for most of this year. They aren't traveling for work or taking vacations. They aren't going out to restaurants or ball games. And they're pushing back expensive purchases to save money.
Millions of Americans remain unemployed as well... In April, the official unemployment rate jumped to 14.7% – the highest level since the Great Depression. More than 20 million Americans lost their jobs. While it has recovered somewhat, the unemployment rate sits around 6.7% today... That's still well above the 3.8% rate before the pandemic in February.
The latest monthly jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the economy added 245,000 jobs in November – well below economists' predictions of 440,000.
This is why we have little faith that the Fed can engineer a healthy economy... It can issue as much stimulus as it wants, but it can't force Americans to actually spend the money.
On the flip side, we're completely confident that the Fed can destroy it...
Regardless of whether or not the COVID-19 vaccine rollout goes smoothly and the economy comes roaring back by next spring, the mountains of debt aren't going to simply disappear.
The Fed will continue to pump trillions into the economy until it gets the inflation it wants. It has no choice... Devaluing the dollar is the only way the government can pay off its debt. It's been doing this for years already... And that's exactly why we need to keep our gold.
If you're looking to increase your gold exposure today, consider buying on the recent pullback. Contrarian investors like us love to see when others are turning their backs on the metal... It's a great opportunity to build our portfolio of eventual winners at cheaper prices.
When it comes to investing in gold, we need to learn to tune out the short-term "noise" and focus on our long-term outlook for the metal. We're not going to give up on gold on a whim.
You'll sleep much better at night if you can learn to keep the proper perspective.
Sure, the past few months have been disappointing for gold investors. But we're confident that you'll look back a year from now and thank us for our advice to keep buying today.
Good investing,
Bill Shaw
Editor's note: It's also important to keep the proper perspective with silver...
While gold's "more volatile cousin" has also pulled back since early August, it has roughly doubled off its March bottom. That easily crushes gold's return of around 20% over the same span. And it's not too late to profit from these incredible gains...
In fact, our colleague and Silver Stock Analyst co-editor Garrett Goggin believes this is just the start of an incredible bull market in silver... perhaps bigger than any we've seen in nearly 50 years.
And he just put together a brand-new presentation with all the details, including why he believes readers can see gains of more than 260% over the next 18 months. Click here for the full story.

