Our Inbox Is (Almost) Full

Our inbox is (almost) full... Hundreds of replies to Porter's Friday Digest... 'Porter for President'... 'Stick to what you know'... Anyone want some oil?... Here come the defaults... The Treasury Secretary tweets... The biggest stories of the COVID-19 crisis...

Several hundred subscribers have already replied to Porter's Friday Digest...

We've received enough e-mail feedback on Porter's provocative essay, "The 'Big Lie' Behind COVID-19," to fill our daily Digest mailbag section for the next month...

The messages range from "Porter for President!" and "Thanks so much for writing this essay and I've forwarded it to friends," to... "Stick to what you know" and "I'm unsubscribing right now."

So it goes when you take a stance with conviction... which a lot of people are hesitant to do.

Not Porter.

Today, we start with a sampling of your feedback on Porter's essay...

And we'll share more throughout the week in our mailbag section at the bottom of each Digest. Away we go, from paid-up subscribers...

This is your greatest article, ever. – Terry H.

I hardly ever reply to comments or stories I see but your Digest was one of the best things I have read this year. EVERYHING you said is correct and exactly what I have been saying during this fake pandemic. I am so happy that there are a few people left in this country like you. I am so proud to be a subscriber to your service and I only wish this Digest could be read by every American. Keep fighting and maybe one day we will come to our senses. Thank you. – Craig L.

Like a distant blip on the radar, Porter returns as a 15-foot roller hitting broadside on the starboard side. What a refreshing "calling it like it is" Friday Digest. Couldn't agree more. – Mike W.

Porter for President!! Finally, someone who has the perspective to see the "big picture" and tell it like it is. It seems to me that we are acting like lemmings ready to follow unsophisticated, ill-advised, and self-serving politicians and pharmaceutical driven medical doctor advice, only to fall off the cliff in a desperate attempt to appease the [populace]. As an American I am ashamed at how we accept mediocrity in the guise of "for the good of all." It is unfortunate that most Americans do not hear Porter's take on this issue. Like in the past I believe he is right on topic!! A longtime Stansberry member. – G.Z.

Now, we admit... Not all of the feedback has been favorable. Here's what others said...

Agreed, Porter. Herd immunity is to aim for but how would you explain the overwhelming effect on hospital and health services if this coronavirus was allowed to run as free, as you suggest? – Edith T.

What you didn't mention was that the UK took your approach initially and very quickly changed their approach because the number of deaths became alarming. – Chris C.

Seriously, you guys in investments need to stick to what you know. – Mark J.

I suggest you stick to your knitting, Porter. – Bruce D.

Our friend and Empire Financial Research co-founder Whitney Tilson also responded in his free Empire Financial Daily newsletter today: "I think Porter is dead wrong."

In the mailbag at the end of today's Digest, we share more "good" and "bad" replies. If you want to skip ahead, go for it... We won't blame you.

But first, a few timely notes as we begin a new week...

Anyone want some oil?...

In the most attention-grabbing sign of just how low demand for oil has plummeted, the price for West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, crashed WAY below $0 today.

Some of this is market mechanics... The May futures contract for WTI crude expires on Tuesday. That means traders holding onto contracts tomorrow would have to take physical delivery of the crude oil... So if this were to ever happen, today would be the day.

From the "never seen this before" department... as we write, the May delivery futures contract is down nearly 300% to around negative-$35 per barrel. The previous all-time low record for such a contract was positive-$10.42 per barrel, set in 1983.

Looking at the bigger picture, the plunge speaks to just how out of whack oil supply and demand (and storage) are today... Nobody wants oil.

We've noted several times over the past few weeks that demand for U.S. oil has fallen off a cliff due to the COVID-19 crisis, while storage facilities are overflowing or nearing capacity. And in the meantime, oil cartel OPEC's recent supply cut doesn't do nearly enough to stabilize the market, based on math alone.

Stansberry NewsWire editor C. Scott Garliss was writing about this early this morning, when he noted that the price of WTI crude was down 37% in pre-market trading...

Scott said there are a few factors in play...

1) The front month futures contract (May) expires tomorrow. If you look further out in the curve, into the coming months, oil prices are much higher. The contracts for June, July, and August are all trading in the low to high $20s.

2) U.S. capacity is quickly filling up and there is a fleet of Saudi tankers with seven times worth the typical monthly amount of oil about to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. This will further compound the problem with little to no storage space available. If storage space disappears, this could force U.S. drillers to further halt production efforts.

3) The recently agreed-upon supply cuts by OPEC+ are for May and June. As a result, the Saudis are said to have continued to pump huge amounts of oil in the meantime.

At this point, U.S. oil producers and midstream players might soon pay customers (or maybe you) to take crude oil off their hands. That's nuts.

What life looks like on the other side of the credit bubble...

We've talked about the burgeoning credit crisis a lot recently, and in last Tuesday's Digest in particular ("The Next Credit Crisis Is... Here").

Over the weekend here and here, Stansberry's Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase detailed the credit-market crisis... and described how you can make money if you know how to navigate the mess.

The big U.S. banks, almost inevitably, are preparing to NOT be repaid on many of the loans they've made... to everybody from everyday credit-card holders to corporations.

With 22 million Americans now unemployed, banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC) have been setting aside cash to cover expected future loan losses.

JPMorgan alone has allocated $8.3 billion for loan losses linked to consumer credit and corporate debt, compared to $1.5 billion for the same purpose before the coronavirus crisis.

In short, here come the defaults.

On and on, "kicking the can down the debt road" goes... Where it stops, nobody knows.

Shake Shack doesn't want your free money...

One company that apparently doesn't want any "free money" is fast-casual restaurant chain Shake Shack (SHAK)...

Responding to the news that funding for the newly created Paycheck Protection Program ("PPP") has already been exhausted (while another round of funding is still being debated in D.C.), Shake Shack said it was returning a $10 million loan it received through the PPP... given that the program was touted as something that would primarily help small businesses.

After laying off thousands of workers on Friday, it might just be a public-relations move. But Shake Shack CEO Randy Garutti and co-founder Danny Meyer at least sounded the right notes in a public letter today...

If this act were written for small businesses, how is it possible that so many independent restaurants whose employees needed just as much help were unable to receive funding?

We now know that the first phase of the PPP was underfunded, and many who need it most, haven't gotten any assistance.

So Shake Shack returned the loan. The company has decided to rely on selling off $75 million in shares of stock to float its boat instead.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he was happy with the decision in the following tweet. His response feels strange, given its entire lack of context and personality at 9:30 a.m. this morning...

This is a bizarro world.

The biggest stories of the COVID-19 crisis...

Our colleagues at American Consequences magazine just released their latest issue over the weekend... And it's a must-read for so many reasons.

We believe you'll find that the issue details the broad scope of the impacts of COVID-19 on the American economy – from big-picture macro issues to the everyday happenings on Main Street...

For instance, in one essay, Todd G. Buchholz, one of the clearest economic writers and thinkers in the world, tackles the big question that has been on our minds lately: Does all "this" mark the death knell of capitalism?

In another thought-provoking piece, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance, explains why we're facing not one pandemic, but two... with the second being an economic contagion.

The 'new normal'...

Also in the issue, managing editor Laura Greaver shares the stories of how the virus and our country's response to it has changed the normal lives of everyday "Main Street" Americans...

Laura interviewed folks like an independent travel agent who is ineligible for unemployment... a doctor on the front lines of the pandemic... and a third-generation liquor store owner, who said "business has been insane and overwhelming on multiple levels." As the liquor store owner explained...

We've had a surge in boxed-wine sales, large format liquor (1.75-liter size), and, honestly, people are less specific on what actual wine they want, they just want a lot of it.

There's much, much more great content and perspectives on the COVID-19 crisis in this month's issue of American Consequences. And best of all, you can access everything for FREE... To learn more about the magazine and get access right now, click here.

New 52-week highs (as of 4/17/20): Dollar General (DG), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Franco-Nevada (FNV), and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM).

In today's mailbag, as we mentioned, we have more feedback on Porter's Friday Digest. We'll share more of your replies to his essay throughout the week, too. If you have a comment or question, send it to us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"OUTSTANDING ANALYSIS Porter. This should be required reading for anyone involved in the decision-making for getting our lives back!" – Paid-up subscriber Jan J.

"You... are 100% correct. The gov't overreacted and should have let it go naturally and suggested plans for older people and those at risk." – Paid-up subscriber Curtis C.

"Dear Mr. Stansberry, Thank you for the April 17, 2020 newsletter. I believe it is right on the bullseye. I agree with everything you said and wanted to thank you for saying it. And I hope you don't mind me trying to spread the truth to others." – Paid-up subscriber Ken P.

"I want to thank you for this excellent paper on the virus, most intelligent and reasoned and well argued. 'If a politician were ever to tell the truth, his genetic makeup would cause him to self-destruct.' – David Icke. Regards." – Paid-up subscriber Kaz C.

"Dear Porter, I just want to say how refreshing I found the Covid-19 article to be. Finally common sense is abound. I'm having problems with my family. They feel as though I'm being insensitive. I just feel the whole thing is hogwash and our derelict government is making it worse. I appreciate your rationale. Thank you." – Paid-up subscriber Kenna R.

"This is the first time I have written to give feedback for what I have read on Stansberry Research. I usually just read and take what I can from it. However, as a physician and scientist I have to comment that Porter's essay today is the best and most complete understanding of the COVID-19 issue that anyone has written since this all started. It's is the perfect explanation of both the natural history of the virus and the failed and failing policies our government is proposing.

"You know what is the saddest thing? Every time a smart scientist writes something along these lines they are immediately attacked and ridiculed by what I call the 'political scientific media.' There have been multiple very smart scientists that have tried to point out the horribly flawed estimated case fatality rate for this virus. No one was listened to by anyone in power. Luckily just recently this study was published out of Stanford.

"I am starting to believe we are going to turn the corner on 'science' of COVID. Unfortunately, I am afraid the economic damage has already been done. I'm not sure how we come back from this." – Paid-up subscriber Jim B.

"Porter, THANK YOU!!! As you most eloquently put it, this is bullshit! The precedent has been set... Incredibly disturbing and profoundly disappointing. What springs from this is what really worries me, and I'm not talking about anything that has to do with a virus." – Paid-up subscriber John C.

"Without going through a grocery cart full of well-worn clichés and superlatives to describe my agreement with Porter's view on the total abrogation of our civil liberties, I submit that after reading this essay even the most ardent supporters of the actions taken over the past weeks by government at every level across this Nation would be standing in silence, looking at their shoelaces. We missed the opportunity to develop herd immunity because we were too receptive to developing a herd mentality that was fueled by media hyper-saturation." – Paid-up subscriber Tom A.

"Porter, Very good article. I agree with most of what you said, however, I am trying to reconcile that with the much more than usual deaths in NY due to COVID-19. Nonetheless, good article. Thanks for expressing your thoughts. According to your logic, many cities and states should not be shut down, and I agree." – Paid-up subscriber Lance H.

"As a Libertarian I have been in agreement with almost all Porter writes. However, someone has fed him wrong data on COVID-19. Most of my family are medical professionals (mostly physicians), and at least 4 have been dealing with COVID-19 cases every day in the epi-centers of NYC and California. Moreover, they belong to nationwide groups who are sharing info to see what works/doesn't etc. Like one of ER physicians that my nephew belongs to.

"Porter assumes the virus only harms the old and/or health compromised. My family has seen many cases of strong, healthy young people with severe symptoms, admitted to the ICU and some died. Any physician treating cases, will tell you that they have never seen anything like this, that it defies all established procedures and they are desperately trying to get a handle on what it really does, what works, what doesn't, compounded by tests full of false positives/negatives etc. Check this article.

"I can send you many more and my sister can send you enough from medical publications to prove the above beyond any doubt.

"Having said that, I do maintain, and from first-hand experience, that the CDC, FDA and all government institutions are inept at best, and the best solution would be a non-government, free market where independent test labs and drug companies would have identified and solved this by now. But we don't have that yet. So right now, the best is for all, is to take all precautions including social distancing and masks in public places.

"I believe very strongly in the Libertarian principles on which this country was founded. In a nutshell, the right of each to do as they please as long as they don't harm anyone else. Not following social distancing, makes one more likely to get and to spread this virus – which is harming others and hence against Libertarian principles.

"Everyone makes mistakes. It takes a great person to admit to being wrong or mistaken." – Paid-up subscriber Jimmy U.

"I suggest you stick to your knitting, Porter. Your apparent lack of knowledge of this virus (and other virus like the flu) is obvious and your scant basis for drawing your conclusions on the treatment by means of herd immunity are laughable.

"The UK took your path and look what happened in a matter of 2 weeks. Additionally I do not recall a bad season of the 'flu' where we have to dig a mass grave in a major US city to bury the dead.

"Having spoken to many virologists and medical professionals, this is the worst virus they have EVER seen in their lives. When a virologist (in no way connected to the government or media – just a normal Jo) tells you this, you should listen.

"I am not saying that the treatment by the government may not have been over the top (you can't be more socially distanced than surfing) but your recommendation for 'expose everyone and see how we go' is ridiculous. With a rapid increase in mortality rate obvious, the health system would collapse under immense stress, businesses would suffer as people fell sick (and die). Those needing the health system for non COVID issues would die due to lack of care facilities. And so the domino affect continues.

"Irrational as the treatment plan by governments may have been, your alternative is just as irrational. I suggest you stick to financial education and awareness and guide us in that aspect as it would be far more valuable than your 'how we should deal with a virus' rant." – Paid-up subscriber Bruce D.

"Seriously, you guys in investments need to stick to what you know. I can't even believe you would provide this analysis. It's something a high school student would do. I specialized in pandemics as a public health administrator for twelve years. The flu spreads about one person to one. This spreads geometrically at 2-3 times that rate. It is geometric. Mortality for flu is about 0.1, the reality for corona using the same approach is 10 to 20 times that.

"Please STAY YOUR AREA OF EXPERTISE, you can kill people with what you are doing. And we are all in this together. Just a small number of your 'independent thinkers' can start a massive spread just with a little bad luck. I do agree and the country is headed towards a more individualized approach. But the country was not prepared as the usually would have been if CDC was allowed to do their normal job. They did a fantastic job with SARS, H1N1, and Ebola." – Paid-up subscriber Mark J.

Back with more tomorrow.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
April 20, 2020