Porter's Big Prediction Comes True
Be careful out there... Ten years since Lehman Brothers failed... What we really learned from the 'Great Financial Crisis'... Porter's big prediction comes true... Don't miss P.J.'s new book...
As we write, Hurricane Florence is barreling toward the southeast Atlantic seaboard...
Fortunately, the storm has weakened from a more dangerous Category 4 earlier this week to a Category 2 hurricane today.
However, according to the National Weather Service, it is still expected to produce a life-threatening storm surge along the Carolina coastline, and "catastrophic" flash flooding as it dumps up to 40 inches of rain on the region.
If you live in the storm's path, please stay safe.
This Saturday will mark the 10-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers...
The investment bank's midnight bankruptcy filing on Monday, September 15, 2008 marked the start of the most severe phase of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Those of us who were close to the markets at that time will likely never forget the days and weeks that followed. It literally felt as though the world might end.
A decade later, effects of the crisis still linger...
While the broad markets and economy have long since recovered their losses, many folks have not. Countless investors have missed out on the recovery altogether, still too fearful to get back into the markets... while an entire generation of young people – who watched their parents lose fortunes in stocks and housing – has largely sworn off investing altogether.
To add insult to injury, despite dozens of books and untold media reports on the subject, it's still not clear that we actually learned anything from it.
Sure, most folks know that it was the busting of the housing bubble – fueled by risky subprime mortgages and Wall Street "securitization" – that triggered the crisis.
But there is still little mainstream recognition that it was foolish government actions, along with the Federal Reserve's "easy money" policies, that were ultimately responsible for these excesses in the first place.
Instead, the crisis was used to justify even more government interference in the markets. And the Fed is celebrated for "saving" the financial system from disaster, even as its policies continue to feed new excesses that will inevitably lead to the next one.
C'est la vie.
Well, it's now official...
Longtime readers know Porter was among the first analysts anywhere to report on America's burgeoning shale-oil revolution. And more than six years ago, he made a prediction that sounded ludicrous to many folks at the time. As he wrote in the August 17, 2012 Digest (emphasis added)...
Over the last three years, U.S. oil companies have discovered roughly 20 new oilfields, each of which are likely to hold at least 20 billion barrels of oil – more than most Persian Gulf states...
This is the most important economic event of my life. America is on its way to being the world's largest energy producer and one of the largest energy exporters. Nobody expects this. But it will absolutely happen.
At the time, the U.S. was in a distant third place, producing roughly 6 million barrels per day ("bpd"). Meanwhile, the world's top two producers – Russia and Saudi Arabia – were producing close to 10 million bpd.
Again, virtually no one believed this was possible at the time...
But that's exactly what's happened.
Back in February, the U.S. moved into second place, as oil production officially surpassed that of Saudi Arabia for the first time in more than 20 years. And according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration just published yesterday, it just passed Russia for the first time since 1999 as well.
The U.S. produced close to 11 million bpd in August, making it the single largest oil producer in the world today.
Congrats to Porter on the bold and prescient call.
Finally, a quick announcement before we sign off today...
We're pleased to announce our friend P.J. O'Rourke – multiple best-selling author, renowned satirist, and yes, former Digest contributing editor – has just published a brand-new book.
In None of My Business, P.J. directs his razor-sharp wit and biting humor – his gift of "making fun of terrible things in some of the world's most awful places," as he puts it – toward the world of business and finance. And it's already rising rapidly up Amazon's finance best-sellers list.
If you're a long-time P.J. fan like we are – or if you simply enjoyed his regular Digest columns in the past – you don't want to miss it.
Click here to get your copy now. And be sure to let us know if you liked it as much as we did.
New 52-week highs (as of 9/12/18): Fidelity Select Medical Technology and Devices Portfolio (FSMEX), iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense Fund (ITA), Match Group (MTCH), Okta (OKTA), SPDR S&P Dividend Fund (SDY), and T-Mobile (TMUS).
In today's mailbag, two astute subscribers call out our "obvious" political bias... plus a Stansberry Alliance member shares what happened when he decided to disregard our longstanding advice on trailing stop losses. What's on your mind? Let us know at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"You said, 'Today, relations between the U.S. and China are already as tense as they've been in decades...' BULLS***!!! Crying, 'Wolf!' will only earn you less credibility. It is SO obvious you are a bunch of liberals." – Paid-up subscriber Jon L.
"I just read your most recent lashing, not only of the company Tesla, but your statement regarding Elon Musk's 'questionable ethics.' While you may be correct about delivery problems at the car manufacturing plant as well as the money drain, I'd like to see you explain how it is that the one man who is trying to save this planet has "questionable ethics." His Space X launches are nothing less than genius and his work on solar walls and other efforts to reduce our carbon footprint are remarkable. It's always been interesting to me that those who are the most ethical among us are so often labeled as being unethical.
"Having read your right-wing Republican crap for many years and subscribed to some of your ridiculously pathetic and expensive investment letters, I say your ethics are questionable. Furthermore, you are little more than a group of disgraceful dinosaurs." – Paid-up subscriber J.S.
Brill comment: Yep, you have us pegged...
"Due to some scheduling commitments that would keep me away from the markets, I decided for the first time to disregard your advice about not disclosing stops to the market by entering stop orders with your broker.
"I took a position in an equity and to protect the downside in my absence, I entered a stop order at a price of $65.25. What happened last night was that the stock traded down to $65.20 in the overnight session which converted the order to a market order which then filled at $65.23 at the market open. As near as I can tell, almost no shares traded except mine and the price then rapidly recovered to the $67.50 level...
"I have been trading for 30 years and had never observed a stop order actually play out until today so it was all theoretical until now.
"So... just thought I would pass that on. When I get good advice and then prove to myself why it is good advice, I am always willing to let the advisor know that it really worked just like they said it would or could." – Paid-up Stansberry Alliance member Paul W.
Brill comment: Thanks for sharing, Paul. Unfortunately, your experience is not uncommon. Whenever you enter your stops in the market, you're at risk of getting "picked off" by market makers when trading volume is light. This is why we always recommend tracking your stops outside of the market, either with dedicated software like TradeStops, a simple spreadsheet, or even a trading notebook if you prefer.
Regards,
Justin Brill
Baltimore, Maryland
September 13, 2018