'The Day the Bull Market Will End'

'The Day the Bull Market Will End'... What to do if you couldn't join us last night... Is the mainstream media reading Sjug's research?... Expect to hear more about China soon... Mailbag Q&A...

What did you think?

Thousands of folks joined us for last night's live event, "The Day the Bull Market Will End," with Porter, Steve Sjuggerud, and TradeStops founder Dr. Richard Smith.

If you were among them, we hope you'll agree it was one of the best we've held to date. (Please be sure to let us know what you thought at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.)

Porter and Steve kicked things off by sharing their latest thoughts on the market. They also addressed the "conflict" between Porter's bearish views and Steve's bullish views.

Now, regular Digest readers know we addressed this conflict yesterday. The fact is, Porter and Steve's views aren't as different as they might appear. But last night's event provided even more clarity.

For example, Porter noted that despite his warnings, his investment recommendations have remained relatively bullish…

Look at The Total Portfolio that I manage. We're 90% long. What I'm telling you about are the problems that are going to happen. But I'm still 90% long. Look at my Stansberry's Investment Advisory portfolio… It's probably more than 90% long.

What I'm telling you is you should be prepared for problems. You should be ready to sell. And you should hedge.

I'm not saying – and I have never said in any newsletter anywhere, not even in June 2008 when I sold half the portfolio – sell everything… I've never said anything like that…

But if you knew in June 2008 that Fannie and Freddie were going to fail… that investment banks were going to roll over and have big problems… that there was going to be a crisis, you were better prepared as an investor. No doubt about it.

So, what's wrong about telling you about the risks that I see… and then giving you sensible, conservative advice about how to allocate? That's all I'm saying…

I am very cautiously long the market. Steve is less cautiously long the market and expecting more out of it. There's no great divergence in those views.

If you've accused us of "playing both sides," this discussion was not to be missed.

But it only got better from there...

Richard explained how his proprietary TradeStops service can help you maximize your gains and minimize your losses… whether you side with Porter, Steve, or anywhere in between. Among the things touched on were...

• How to safely play a potential "Melt Up" in stocks...
• How to know with a high degree of certainty when the long bull market is finally over...
• Exactly when to sell some of the most popular and best-performing stocks in the market, including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (FB), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Hershey (HSY), among others...
• How to know when it's safe to get back into stocks you've stopped out of...
• The single most important consideration when making a new investment (which has nothing to do what stocks you buy or even when you buy them) and…
• An unbelievably simple way to make much more money on the stocks you already own.

Richard also revealed two brand-new TradeStops tools for the first time...

These new tools will allow virtually anyone to invest alongside some of the best and brightest investors in the world... or better yet, to create your own "perfect" portfolio from the best recommendations from the entire universe of research you read.

If you missed last night's event, don't worry...

You're not out of luck...

For a limited time, you can view a full replay right here.

Richard has also agreed to extend a generous, limited-time offer to folks who weren't able to attend last night...

In short, for the next few days only, you can "test drive" TradeStops for yourself, absolutely risk-free for two full months.

You can use his proprietary TradeStops tools to check the risk in your current portfolio... find out if there are any stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or even options you should sell immediately... and quickly and easily "risk rebalance" your entire portfolio. And again, there's absolutely no obligation.

If you aren't completely satisfied, Richard will give you a full refund. And if you choose to subscribe, you can lock in one of the biggest discounts he's ever offered on this service.

Click here to start your no-risk trial today. (Please note, this offer is only good for the next few days.)

Is the mainstream media reading True Wealth China Opportunities?

Regular readers know Steve's Melt Up thesis isn't his only big contrarian call of late. He's also incredibly bullish on China.

Now, it appears others are beginning to wake up to this opportunity, too...

This morning, news service Reuters reported Chinese stocks had their best day in months. From the article...

China stocks rose sharply on Thursday, as the blue-chip CSI300 index posted its best day in more than nine months despite the surprise decision by Moody's to downgrade the country's sovereign credit rating a day earlier...

The blue-chip CSI300 index rose 1.8 percent, its biggest gain since Aug. 15, and ended at 3,485.66 points, its highest close in more than a month. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 1.4 percent to 3,107.83 points...

The strongest performers in China's markets on Thursday were banking and real estate stocks whose indexes jumped 3.3 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively.

Steve has, of course, recommended some of the same stocks and sectors.

But we didn't bring this up to simply make that note...

In fact, this report is also among the first from any mainstream outlets to cite the bullish factors Steve has been telling his readers about for months. For example, the article noted that the Chinese government has no qualms about actively supporting the market...

One stock analyst at a Chinese securities company said there was "national will" on Thursday for the market to go up...

State intervention in financial markets is not unheard of in China. During the market rout of mid-2015, a band of government-backed investors, dubbed the "National Team", was ordered to try to stop the bleeding by buying stocks. There was some speculation online that the National Team was at it again in the wake of the downgrade.

Stirring memories of the government-orchestrated campaign in 2015 to prop up stocks, 20 companies said late on Wednesday that their major shareholders planned to increase their holdings, the state-owned newspaper Securities Times reported.

More important, the report also highlighted the upcoming MSCI decision in June. As we've discussed, this decision is likely to unleash hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars into Chinese shares...

Expectations were building that MSCI will announce China's inclusion in its Emerging Markets Index when it issues its annual classification review on June 20.

Snubbing China last year, MSCI cited concerns over share suspension rules and monthly limits on repatriating capital.

China Securities Co., a brokerage, said in a report on Wednesday: "The chance of an A-share inclusion into MSCI has risen drastically for 2017"... JP Morgan, China International Capital Corp and BlackRock have also expressed optimism over prospects that A shares could be included by MSCI this year.

In short, today's news is a sign that Steve's thesis is catching on... Expect to hear even more about Chinese stocks as next month's decision approaches.

New 52-week highs (as of 5/24/17): AMETEK (AME), Amazon (AMZN), Becton Dickinson (BDX), Blackstone (BX), Global X China Financials Fund (CHIX), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), iShares MSCI Singapore Capped Fund (EWS), iShares MSCI South Korea Capped Fund (EWY), National Beverage (FIZZ), Alphabet (GOOGL), Hershey (HSY), PureFunds ISE Mobile Payments Fund (IPAY), Nuveen Preferred Securities Income Fund (JPS), McDonald's (MCD), ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO), and Weight Watchers (WTW).

Another busy day in the mailbag: Lots of praise for the latest from P.J. O'Rourke... several subscribers weigh in on yesterday's Digest... and some great early feedback on last night's special event: "The Day the Bull Market Will End." As always, send your notes to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"I just have to put it in writing, O'Rourke just cracks me up! No keeping chickens for me. Although some deep thought (while scooping chicken s***) might do me some good. Laughing." – Paid-up subscriber Mark U.

"Keep it up, PJ! You are a blessing." – Paid-up subscriber Bruce K.

"Hi PJ, loved it. I did [have] chickens at my old rural house – seven of them. We had a dog pen at the lower level of a 1.75-acre property my parents bought in 1964. Well, either the coyotes killed them or my dog Jeffry killed them. The chickens were gone and when I asked Jeff 'Where are the chickens,' Jeff dug one up. Suspicious, but I had no proof. Yeah, he could climb fences easily as he was a brilliant Shepard mix – far smarter than any Democrat I have met!

"But with regard to the term... 'They are endowed by their creator with certain unalienable rights.' I think it was originally 'inalienable rights' and it was not written by Jefferson who wrote 'sacred and undeniable' Ben Franklin scratched it out and wrote 'inalienable.' Both brilliant guys about 1 million times smarter than today's Politicians. Keep the peace my friend. Best Regards." – Paid-up subscriber Craig R.

"Great reply today, Porter and team. I figured the basis is position size, risk tolerance, and smart trailing stops. I wanted readers to see the different and similar positions. Both sides are correct.

"I have been using your services for the past two years since I bought and read Porter's book America 2020. It was a profound awakening for me. Since then I have completely reallocated my entire seven-figure investment portfolio to be much more 'stable' and diversified – especially with precious metals positions both in bullion and stocks. I sleep better at night like last Wednesday when the DJIA tanked 372 points, my portfolio actually went up slightly.

"I do agree more with Steve on his 'optimistic' view of equities and have a more aggressive investing approach with above average risk tolerance than most. I have rebuilt my portfolio from a wobbly four-legged stool with one leg shorter than the others to a solid eight-legged oak table thanks to all the great investing ideas that have come from Stansberry Research. Of course, you have to put these into motion to make positive things happen.

"Keep up the great work on your team. Having opposing views and philosophies is what keeps everyone on their toes." – Paid-up subscriber Peter D.

"Today's e-mail on stock market forecasts was great. Thanks!" – Paid-up subscriber Jim S.

"'Get on the same page'? Personally, I would be concerned if you all agreed. If I wanted mindless group-think for advice I'd just watch the talking heads on TV. I'd say your advice is prudent at almost any time, not just late in a bull market. I enjoy letting my winners alone while collecting dividends, paying attention to my stop losses (which has forced me to sell both Walmart and Target), and then with my cash I wait patiently for good conviction ideas. I know none of you have a crystal ball, and the difference of opinions shows me you know it too. If you were all on the same page, I'd start to worry." – Paid-up subscriber Ashley S.

"You asked 'Does that clear things up' in your latest Digest regarding the different outlooks Porter, Steve, Doc, and Dan have. One thing that is not clear is Steve believes that stocks aren't that expensive when taking low interest rates into account. That is never mentioned when Porter says they basically feel the same. In fact, this Digest states 'inflated valuations' and elsewhere 'stocks are expensive' is written and suggested constantly by Porter but not by Steve. More explanation of that difference would be very much appreciated. Thank you." – Paid-up Stansberry Flex member George F.

Brill comment: This is another great question we covered last night... In short, Porter and Steve are just looking at the market from different perspectives.

Porter analyzes and values individual companies. From this perspective, many companies are undeniably expensive on an absolute basis. On the other hand, Steve takes more of a "top down" approach, and values the broad market on a relative basis compared to interest rates. From this perspective, stocks aren't yet outrageously expensive.

Together, they present exactly the case we've been making... Stocks are historically risky, but they're likely to go higher before the bull market ends.

"You guys/gals have more nerve than me, I got out of the market entirely yesterday, would rather be four to six months early than half a day late. Outside of some very minor miners, which are less than $2 a share, I am in cash and building my list of who to buy after the market crashes." – Paid-up subscriber Cliff W.

Brill comment: You're not alone, Cliff... As Porter mentioned last night, many of our readers are worried about buying stocks today.

Now, we'd never criticize someone for being conservative. But we fear many folks won't have the discipline to stick to this strategy. Consider this... If we experience the "Melt Up" Steve predicts and stocks absolutely soar, will you be content remain on the sidelines while friends and family members make potentially hundreds of percent gains?

If the answer is yes, we applaud your discipline... Unfortunately, as we saw during the last Melt Up in tech stocks, many folks are likely to lose their resolve and jump back in to stocks at the worst possible time. Why not keep a small portion of your portfolio in stocks (using proper position sizing and trailing stop losses, of course) instead?

"Dear friends at Stansberry, this Digest today (Clearing up some confusion) is exactly what I needed to hear. While I knew most of it before you sent the article, repetition is vital to keeping oriented through market cycles.

"My question relates to stop losses. When the market reverses and nosedives to become 'one for the books,' you cannot get out of your positions unless there is somebody in the market who wants to buy them. How do we know there will be enough buyers so we may exit once the bear seizes overdue momentum? Proud and grateful [to be an] Alliance member." – Paid-up Stansberry Alliance member Bill W.

Brill comment: Bill, that's a valid concern... but the reality is we'll likely be stopped out long before most investors even realize the bull market is over. The story Steve Sjuggerud shared during last night's webinar illustrates this point...

Back in January 2000, Steve warned his subscribers that the tech bubble was peaking and a huge decline was likely. In March, the market peaked... and by May 2000, ALL of Steve's open recommendations had been stopped out.

You'd probably assume Steve was thrilled to help his subscribers "cash out" near the top and protect their profits, right? Wrong... Even Steve – who was certain the bubble was popping – felt like he had let folks down by selling too soon. That is what the top of a Melt Up feels like.

Meanwhile, the market didn't finally bottom until two years later in 2002. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index ultimately fell from a high of 5,049 to just 1,114, a decline of nearly 80%.

"I was signed up but unable to attend due to a family emergency. Is there any way I can get a copy of tonight's session? Thank you." – Paid-up subscriber Bill B.

Brill comment: You bet, Bill... Again, you can view a full replay of last night's event right here. And you can take advantage of Richard's limited-time, 100% risk-free "test drive" for TradeStops by clicking here.

Regards,

Justin Brill
Baltimore, Maryland
May 25, 2017