The Most Bombed-Out Investment Opportunity In America
Editor's note: Almost no one wanted to touch the real estate market in early 2011...
But Dr. Steve Sjuggerud did.
After the housing crisis, investors completely lost faith in the industry. And as Steve recalled about that time period in the March 11, 2020, edition of his free DailyWealth e-letter...
It was the first time in my investing career that real estate was THAT hated. So I bought all I could – and then some. Since then, I've made incredible profits on it.
Steve has remained just as optimistic about real estate over the past nine years. Nowadays, the largest percentage of his investable net worth remains in Florida real estate.
In today's Masters Series essay, we're going back to where Steve's "incredible" call began – the March 2011 issue of his True Wealth advisory. Times were tough... not just in one major city, but across the country. However, amid widespread fear, Steve saw the opportunity...
That opportunity still exists today, but investors simply aren't seeing it again. The idea is just too far from the mainstream talking points for most folks. Steve's thoughts on real estate are just as radical now as back then... but today's reasoning might surprise you.
So before we go over exactly why Steve is still so bullish on real estate in tomorrow's essay, we thought it would be helpful to take a look at his near-flawless 2011 real estate call...
The Most Bombed-Out Investment Opportunity In America
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, editor, True Wealth
It might just be the best opportunity in American history for this investment...
It's not a stock. So you don't have to worry about its value going to zero. And this "product" will never be obsolete.
Plus, you are the boss... so you don't have to worry about crooked executives ruining the business. You are in charge.
If things go badly in America – if the dollar continues to weaken, if our politicians keep spending, if the national debt and taxes go up – this investment will hold its value at the very least, and most likely will go up.
This investment is an extraordinary buy right now. It's like buying the Nasdaq in late 2002 – after the dot-com bust – the point at which everyone had given up on it.
The Nasdaq lost 80% of its value from its March 2000 highs to its October 2002 lows. Everyone finally gave up. Then, the Nasdaq just about doubled over the next 12 months.
Buying the investment I'm going to show you today is like buying the Nasdaq at the October 2002 lows – only better, for many reasons.
Get in if you can. Convince your kids to get in, if they're old enough. Help 'em get in, if you're in a position to help.
In this rough economic time, many people simply won't be in a position to take advantage of this. I understand that. Fortunately, I think you have some time. The opportunity is so good, I believe it will still be good in a year or two, or more.
If you can't do it now, you won't have missed it. But right now, right this moment, is the best it's ever been.
Let me explain, starting in Sin City, USA...
Where to Get Your Average Home... for $109,000
"Price of existing homes at 20-year low in Las Vegas." That was a headline in the Las Vegas Sun.
Don't worry, I'm not recommending moving to Vegas... But it makes a great example. Bear with me...
Twenty-year lows in home prices might sound bad, but the reality out in Vegas is even worse.
House prices in Vegas are more likely at 50-year lows, when you adjust for inflation. The Nasdaq-style boom-then-bust in Vegas is obvious.
Las Vegas homes are likely the cheapest in history if you adjust for square footage. (Homes have doubled in size in the last 50 years.)
The Las Vegas Sun reported the median price paid for a house in January was $109,000, out of 3,800 homes sold in January 2011.
Think about this for a minute... What does it actually cost to build a normal house in America?
The median new home size in America is over 2,000 square feet. And I doubt you could build a decent house for less than $100 a square foot. This math is pretty simple...
If you're building a 2,000 square-foot house, the cost of building alone would be $200,000. That number doesn't include a fancy kitchen and bath – we're talking a basic American house.
Oh, wait... what about the land you're building on? And what about building permits? Even if you get a great deal on both, you're up to $225,000 in total costs... again, for just the basics.
So that's $225,000 to build the median home in America. Now, refresh my memory... what was the median price a home sold for in Vegas last month? Oh yes, $109,000. So you can buy a house in Vegas today for half the cost of building the median house in America today.
This situation will change. It will correct itself.
Right now, it's unprofitable for a builder to build a house in Vegas. But equilibrium will return to Vegas someday... And it won't be from builders lowering their costs of building. They can't.
So if my guesses about costs are close to right, the median price of a home in Vegas should double in time, just to bring the market back to equilibrium. (The key phrase here is "in time" – it could be a LONG time.)
Now, I don't want you to go out and buy a Las Vegas home. Las Vegas is just the most extreme example of what's happening in America today. Here's the bigger picture...
The Best Time in History to Buy a House
Right now – today – is the best time in history to buy a house in America.
You might think it feels scary out there – that house prices will never go up. But remember two things: First, just a few years ago, people thought home prices would never go down. And second, it ALWAYS feels scary at a market bottom.
Today, I'll show you why it's the best time in history to buy. I'll start with two hard facts...
Fact No. 1: Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in American history in late 2010.
Most investors have only seen a couple decades of mortgage rates. But my friends at Global Financial Data have databases – including real estate data – that go back centuries. And they show that mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in U.S. history in late 2010.
When were mortgage rates even close to this low in the past? Just after World War II...
And what happened, just after World War II, when they were this low? We saw the greatest post-war boom in housing prices – by far...
Mortgage rates bottomed in the mid-1940s, and house prices bottomed at about the same time. Then the greatest boom in home prices in our lifetimes started.
Today, we are coming off record-low mortgage rates. And we have another thing in our favor...
Fact No. 2: Homes are more affordable than ever.
Based on the 40-year history of the Housing Affordability Index, houses are more affordable than they've ever been.
"Affordability" takes three factors into account: home prices, your income, and mortgage rates.
The basic idea is simple. What do people think about when they buy a house? It's not the price of the house, really... It's the payment. People think, "Can I afford this mortgage payment on my monthly income?"
When mortgage rates hit 20% in the early 1980s, monthly house payments were ridiculously high... It was the least-affordable time in American history. The second least-affordable time in American history was at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.
But – news flash – home prices have crashed. They're cheap! And mortgage rates recently hit record lows. Since household incomes nationwide haven't fallen nearly as much, homes are now more affordable than ever.
Most people out there will only tell you the bad news about housing... That's the way it goes in a bear market. People drive looking in the rearview mirror.
Meanwhile, we have some darn compelling facts out there...
Home prices have fallen by one-third... And mortgage rates are the lowest in history. Therefore, U.S. homes are more affordable than they've ever been.
Based on these two facts alone, now is the best time in American history to buy a house.
Time to Act
Mortgage rates bottomed at around 4.2% in late 2010. But they've ALREADY jumped to around 5% today. A local home inspector recently told me...
I don't know if it's the jump in mortgage rates that's spurred people to act, or if its banks starting to lend again, but I'm swamped.
He's actually a surfing buddy of mine here in Florida. In the last couple years, he's had plenty of free time to catch waves between inspections. But he's swamped now...
People want it done NOW. They want to buy NOW. So I'm out inspecting all day lately. Then I stay up 'til one or two in the morning writing reports. Then I'm out inspecting again as soon as the sun comes up.
That kind of anecdotal evidence is important, particularly in housing. It tells me what's going on RIGHT NOW. Meanwhile, the market data on housing is always old. The most current data includes home prices from October 2010 – five months ago. No joke...
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index came out on February 22, 2011. It is "calculated monthly using a three-month moving average and published with a two-month lag." So it is the average of October, November, and December's home prices. That's too old!
Meanwhile, my surfing buddy is dealing with what's happening TODAY.
To me, it sure sounds like things are getting less bad in real estate here on Florida's east coast RIGHT NOW. When the snow thaws and home buying picks up again, we could see a surprisingly strong spring. Longtime readers have heard me say it before... The secret to 1,000% gains is to buy when things go from "bad to less bad."
Things Are Finally Getting Less Bad
You don't get rich when things look rosy out there...
When things look good, you often lose money investing, because conditions can easily change... things can turn for the worse. The majority of the gains I have made in my career – in the shortest amount of time – have been made when things go from bad to less bad.
You can make money at other times... but it takes much longer, and the amounts are typically smaller. Now is a moment where things are getting less bad in housing. Let's look at a couple big-picture items for proof...
1) The recession is over. A couple years after a recession ends, home prices start rising again.
Going back to 1950, that has been the case.
And yes, home prices suffered their worst bust in our lifetimes from 2006 to the present. But the recession is over. The worst is over for home prices. Things are getting less bad.
2) The supply of new homes on the market is less bad. When the supply of new homes peaks and gets less bad, home prices start to rise a couple years later.
When a housing market overheats, the supply of new homes on the market starts to soar. And almost like clockwork, whenever the supply of new homes peaks, housing prices start to rise a couple years later.
The supply of new homes clearly peaked a couple years ago. Right now, there's still plenty of inventory out there. But the cycle will repeat itself.
Builders are not building new homes today. It's hard to imagine now, but there will be a day down the road where the supply of new homes is small... which will force prices higher.
For now, the supply of new homes is getting less bad.
3) Housing starts have bottomed. They're now less bad. When that happens, shares of homebuilders start to soar – often by hundreds of percent.
Shares of homebuilding stocks typically start to rise around the time housing starts bottom.
This fact is extraordinary... According to housing starts data, fewer new homes are being built today than at any time in the last 50 years.
We have 70% more people in the U.S. today than we had in 1960... so you'd think housing starts would trend higher in line with population growth. But the reality today is – as I showed with Las Vegas – it's impossible for builders to make money building a house. So they don't start building them.
Summing Up: Buy a House
Now is the best time in American history to buy a house.
Home prices have crashed more than at any time in our lifetimes. And mortgage rates recently hit all-time lows. Houses are more affordable than ever.
Things are getting less bad. The recession is over. Housing starts bottomed, and the supply of new homes on the market peaked.
Homebuilders like Toll Brothers (TOL) are actually adding employees... "We're only filling positions that are needed for today's activity, but we're certainly back to growing," the CEO said recently. And my home inspector friend is "swamped" with business.
If you can buy a house, now is the time – the best time in history. While prices may not soar immediately, I believe we're seeing the lows RIGHT NOW.
Homebuilding is cyclical. And I believe we've just finished the worst of this down cycle – which is the worst ever seen in our lifetimes, and likely the worst we will ever see.
Now comes the upturn. Get in early... get in now.
Good investing,
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Editor's note: In February, the median home price in Las Vegas broke an all-time record of $316,000. That might make you think the opportunity in U.S. real estate is over...
But it's not.
The setup was nearly perfect in 2011 for housing. But today, nine years later, Steve is still as bullish as ever on real estate... In tomorrow's Masters Series essay, he'll explain why it remains one of the most competitive assets available to investors. When folks ask Steve about this topic today, the answer he gives isn't "what they were expecting."
In the meantime, we hope you'll register for Steve's upcoming FREE real estate broadcast...
Next Wednesday, June 24, at 8 p.m. Eastern time, Steve will go public with all of his secrets in this space. He'll also share a brand-new type of investment opportunity that has been off-limits to ordinary investors until recently. Get all the details and save your spot right here.
