Another Year of Change
The first weekend of 2026 changed the global oil game... Opening the door to Venezuela... The world's biggest oil prize... Messages sent to China, Russia, and more... How to focus on your investments... Our New Year's resolution...
We begin 2026 with an international perp walk...
There he was Saturday night... Now-former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, wearing a sweatsuit and rubber sandals, was escorted by U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency agents through the agency's headquarters.
"Good night. Happy New Year," Maduro said to the camerapeople and reporters documenting the perp walk.
You likely know how he got there...
At 2 a.m. Saturday morning, federal law enforcement, aided by U.S. Army special forces, dropped by helicopters to capture Maduro and his wife from their bedroom in Caracas, Venezuela's capital. The couple's unusual arrest leaves them facing charges of narco-terrorism, cocaine smuggling, and various weapons charges.
The high-risk operation over the weekend followed U.S. attacks in recent months on alleged drug-smuggling boats from Venezuela's Caribbean coast and, most recently, a U.S. blockade of what the White House called sanctioned oil exports.
Maduro now faces trial in the U.S., and he and his wife made their first appearance in court today.
Before this story made headlines this weekend, maybe Maduro and the South American country didn't mean that much to you. Maybe it still doesn't. I (Corey McLaughlin), for one, am all for stopping the flow of illegal drugs into the U.S. from anywhere. It has been a blight on society for decades and has killed untold numbers of Americans.
But drug prosecution aside, what we're also seeing is essentially U.S. government-driven "regime change" in Venezuela. That's a whole other thing... and is important, too.
We don't know what the next Venezuelan leader(s) with staying power will look like. Venezuela's vice president has been sworn in as acting president for now. But we already have a pretty good idea about the likely largest economic impact.
The story starts and ends with oil.
Venezuela sits on the world's largest potential oil supply...
Under the land within its borders, the country is rich. Venezuela has more proven oil reserves, with more than 300 billion barrels, than any other country. That's about 20% of the world's known reserves.
Yet it only manages to export about 1% of the world's oil supply.
For the last several decades, the Venezuelan government has run its energy industry. A combination of corruption, lack of investment, U.S. sanctions, and more have made it a small producer... an ally of Russia that mainly supplied China. That could change now...
President Donald Trump said the U.S. will "run" Venezuela until a "proper and judicious transition." During a press conference on Saturday, Trump also said that U.S. oil companies will spend billions of dollars in the country.
These companies will "fix the badly broken infrastructure... and start making money for the country," Trump said.
Like anything, this kind of dramatic change will take time in the physical world of oilfields, pipelines, and freight ships. But for today, at least, the market was bullish about Trump's ideas and sees Maduro's takedown as good news.
On a broadly up day in the market, energy was the S&P 500 Index's top sector, rising almost 3%. Chevron (CVX), the lone U.S. oil major with a significant presence in Venezuela, gained more than 5%. Valero Energy (VLO) was up more than 9%. And oilfield-services companies SLB (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) gained about 9% and 8%, respectively.
Beyond this early reaction, a new regime in Venezuela – and control and interest in the country's oil changing hands – looks like the latest move in the struggle between powers in the East and West. I suspect we'll see more surprising turns before the year is out.
As 2026 begins, much conflict or potential geopolitical conflict remains open-ended. We're watching the war in Ukraine, China's interest in Taiwan, and public protests now unfolding in Iran. Trump has already promised to "come to [the] rescue" if the Iranian government kills protestors.
The White House targeting Maduro isn't just about him, drugs, or oil (though that's all important). Taking out a president also sets the mood about what could come next in more conflicts that catch Trump's and America's interest.
Yesterday, Trump returned to a previously stated idea of a U.S. takeover of Greenland for "national security" reasons. He also talked about how Cuba's government is "ready to fall" because it has relied on Venezuelan oil for income.
Trump further threatened action against Colombia and its president, Gustavo Petro. Trump called Petro a "sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States, and he's not going to be doing it very long."
What we can do about it...
If this is what's happening in just the first few days of a new year, we're in for another long 12 months of change in 2026. Though it's always true, much will be out of investors' direct control. But breaking news tends to stoke our human emotions.
To which we say, stay focused. One headline – even if large in scale – doesn't mean it's time to sell, or buy. Another headline is always hot on its heels.
It's easier to talk about focus than to achieve it... Most of us have smartphones in our pockets, giving us access to global news at any moment of any day.
Don't be reactive... Instead, if you 1) know your goals for your money, then 2) you can make a plan to achieve them with 3) investments that align with those goals, whatever they might be.
Here's my New Year's resolution in the Digest... Amid all the noise of daily market moves and screaming headlines, I'm going to make sure you also hear about investing opportunities to grow and protect your wealth over the long run. I'll share strategies and recommendations that apply no matter what is going on in the world.
If we stop doing that for too long at any point in 2026, please send us a note and tell us to knock it off.
For starters, here are five big ideas to think about in the year ahead...
Our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk published his five biggest predictions in his first This Week on Wall Street of 2026, published on Friday. I'll list them, and you should read the entire piece here.
- Affordability Stays Front and Center
- A Monster Blue Wave – Which the Market Loves
- Gold (and Silver) at a "New Normal"
- AI Value Moves Down the Chain
- Solar Rips Higher
Solar? Yep.
And looking again at his third point, let me show you this chart from Matt... It shows gold and silver's price performance over the past 20 or so years – and the 65%-plus return for gold and 160%-plus return for silver in 2025...
Matt says some of these gains are bubble-like, meaning a pullback wouldn't surprise him. But Matt predicts such a drop would only be "temporary." He sees prices continuing to rise over 2026 and not going back to where they were last year.
Read Matt's full take here... And we'll keep sharing our team's 2026 thoughts this week.
Here's one more way to start the new investing year...
Our friend Marc Chaikin – a Wall Street legend and the founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics – is sharing his 2026 outlook publicly this Thursday, January 8 at 10 a.m. Eastern time.
You should hear him out. Marc is going to share details about the "January trigger" he's tracking more closely than usual right now. Over more than 70 years, this market indicator has never been wrong, and Marc says it could "dictate your entire 2026."
He's also going to share the single worst money mistake you could make in the coming days and the one urgent move he recommends you make before January 14. Click here to register for this free event now.
New 52-week highs (as of 1/2/26): ASML (ASML), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Century Aluminum (CENX), Ciena (CIEN), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), Enel (ENLAY), Ero Copper (ERO), iShares MSCI Italy Fund (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Fund (EWP), iShares MSCI South Korea Fund (EWY), SPDR Euro STOXX 50 Fund (FEZ), Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Fund (FYLD), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA), KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index Fund (KBA), Nucor (NUE), Sprott (SII), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), Vanguard FTSE Europe Fund (VGK), State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), and ExxonMobil (XOM).
We're back with all our usual fare today, including the mailbag. Today, we have a smattering of messages that came in over the past two weeks, including notes about our Q&A with Stansberry Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase... Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig's special series on options and his Retirement Trader strategy... another story about the demand for "skilled labor"... and a previously published Digest from Dan Ferris that ran in the DailyWealth newsletter on Friday... Welcome to 2026. Happy New Year. As always, send your comments and questions to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Thanks for the detailed explanation [about corporate bonds]. I will look forward to your recommendations in 2026." – Subscriber Tomas K.
"Will need a lot of direction and guidance, let alone self-discipline to master the 'Options according to Doc' program! Hoping I'm one of the near future testimonials to what a great, life-changing investment opportunity this turns out to be! Happy Healthy Prosperous and Peace filled 2026 to you Doc and the staff!" – Subscriber J.L.
"I have two great nephews who are in high school and can take a truck engine apart and put it back together. The youngest one bought a non-working tractor from a neighbor for $200 (after much bargaining). He repaired it and sold it back to the neighbor for $700 plus. His parents don't worry about him making it in life. This was when he was just thirteen." – Subscriber Carol G.
"What a superb article in the DailyWealth email I just received in my inbox entitled 'Investing Lessons From 'The Hedgehog and the Fox'.' Its investing wisdom is 'timeless.'
"[Last month, thanks to Dan] I had just come to recognize that bonds barely keep up with current inflation, so I had retooled my investments to almost entirely withdraw from them in favor of solid stocks. Soon afterward I realized that I needed to rebalance my portfolios to include much more bonds as a defense against the severe ravages of volatility (thanks Doc Eifrig), so I retooled again!
"I'd been a 'fox' (metaphorical seeker of merely risky stock returns) but had balanced back, becoming more like a 'hedgehog' (metaphorical porcupine who defends against dangers with its quills). I balanced my solid stocks with the more conservative bonds. I plan now to pay attention to both metaphorical creatures.
"Thanks, again, for such insights! Happy New Year!" – Stansberry Alliance member James M.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
January 5, 2026